One Child Left Behind

[canyonwalker]

China today announced an end to its controversial "One Child" policy, the law for 35 years that punished most couples who gave birth to more than one child. Now two is the new one: all couples will be allowed to have two children. The stated purpose of the move is "to balance population development and address the challenge of an ageing population

Comments

[some_other_dave]

There were also rumors that for a while, there was a significant shortage of women in China. Due to people wanting to have a son, and disposing of inconvenient daughters. If those rumors were true (and not just "fear-the-other" mongering), that argues for an even larger average...

[canyonwalker]

It's not just a rumor, it's a documented fact reported by respected international agencies such as the World Health Organization that there exists a significant gender gap in China's population.

[kjn]

You're modeling a spherical cow here. You need to take account of the specific demographic structure of the population when the project started, and then look how it changes. Also, there were several exceptions.

I'd rather say that China has experienced an even more extreme version of the transition that most industrialised countries go through.

Take a look at the demographics pyramids of Wikipedias Demographics in China page, and keep track of both the fertile population (ie age 20-35) and of the kids.