Alberta, what just happened?

[mijopo]

I'm not sure I've ever seen a situation in which the polls got things as wrong as they did in the Alberta election this year. So, what happened? Were people were turned off by the bigotry and changed their minds about the Wildrose at the last minute? Did strategic voters, aided perhaps by the "viral" video that was circulated, move to the PCs to

Comments

[jamesq]

Better the devil you know than the devil you don't.

My perspective is a little different from most Albertans in that

1. I was born and raised here.
   
2. I've always been midway between the Liberals and the NDP on the political spectrum.

My riding was one of the few in Calgary that had a Liberal incumbent. Looking at the numbers from the previous election and last night's election, it appeared that a lot of people who voted Liberal last time were sufficiently scared by the prospect of a Wildrose government that they moved those votes to the PCs. A complicating factor in Calgary-Varsity (my riding) is that the incumbent was retiring, so any votes for the man, not the party vanished with him

[allhatnocattle]

Alberta today is not the Alberta of old. We've grown considerably in last 20 years with newcommers from BC, Ontario, and the Maritime. These newcommers are typically younger(ish) and many don't have traditional telephones and other polling devices used by polling firms. Smart phones block unknown callers. It's no wonder pollsters have a older more conservative prediction in politics. Remember, they got it wrong in the Calgary election too.

Redford's leadership has been far more to the centre then Stelmach or Klein. First thing she did was support the teachers union. Her campaign has been very centred and I'm sorry but the left is rather fractured between the Liberals, NDP and the Alberta Party. Danielle Smith's Wild Rose Party took all the staunch conservative voters and there certainly are a lot of them. But conservatives bothered by being too far to the right could still feel comfortable with the PC's.

It wasn't a shocking result to anyone except the pollsters and those that believe them.