thanks for the link. that really hits the nail on the head.
the fact that even now I'm having to carefully consider whether I'm flying out to PA to visit friends and family in August really had me thinking about the fact that there's a very real possibility that wherever a lot of us are in 4 or 5 years might be where we're staying for a while.
...had me thinking about the fact that there's a very real possibility that wherever a lot of us are in 4 or 5 years might be where we're staying for a while.
Yuppers. Been thinking about that a lot too. Kinda don't mind it, although it sucks to have it imposed upon you. It's good to start contemplating now though, from a proactive sense.
Hanging out with Greasers for the last 5 years or so I've seen a lot of the Peak Oil doom and gloom. I think we have issues but it is a bit over hyped. As oil supply decreases price increases and business and people invest in alternatives. As gas goes over $4 a gallon in the US tons of money is pouring into alternatives because they are or may become cheaper. Don't get me wrong, its seriously effecting some folks standard of living especially is you were a consumer of large amounts of fossil fuel (or products requiring a lot). It will effect people somewhat dramatically short term and have some long term effects as well, but I don't think the sky will fall or the economy will collapse. IMHO, we are a bit more resilient then that. I think you'll see a lot more good then bad, return to walking towns and communities, more biking and walking, more mass transit, more alternative energy, more efficiency in our businesses and systems
( ... )
Yeah, I see both sides of it: the doom and gloom and the hype. And I agree that it can result in some pretty positive changes (communities, efficiency, etc.)...but I still think it's going to be a shock and potentially have some very destabilizing effects globally.
And yeah, the international travel thing looks set to happen and is seriously depressing, both from your (more lofty) perspective, and a more selfish perspective of wanting to see things.
Le sigh.
We'll adapt though...I'm sure...but it stands to be potentially painful.
Excellent piece. Thanks for pointing to it. Ok, so I had to go to the Post website after I had just spat my refusal at them... but it's a columnist, not really the Post.
agriculture needs to return to the center of economic life.. .We'll also have to occupy the landscape differently, in traditional towns, villages and small cities
Seriously. Ummm, I guess that's one approach. Kinda along the lines of "killing all the humans makes the world a better place"
Me, I think Urbanism is the way to go. For many of the reasons articulated by this guy who does a local free flashmob-style dance party here. I particularly like his line of:
* to all my fellow enviros who talk about living out in the country by yourself? Talk to the hand! What happens when everyone on the planet wants to do that? What makes you get to & no one else?
Re: talk to the handevadd4w6May 30 2008, 14:10:07 UTC
I'm seeing more of "urban farming" coming up. As farm land has gone away, due to the exurbs, city space has opened up, due to the population shift. Basically, crops getting grown, In the cities. Of course, this works in areas that have adequate resources. I'm curious as to what new mexico, and other areas which rely on cheap energy and water , will be like in 10 years.
Sorry... while there are parts of the story I agree with, I think for the most part it's a load of horseshit. I'd rather not waste my effort refuting individual parts of his argument... I'll instead post my own take, and you can contrast/compare
( ... )
nice. "have some fucking optimism" very nice. love your rant.
Here's something I've been wondering about: oil barrel prices are up 300-400% from last year or so. Somehow I don't think demand has increased 3 or 4 times in the last year or so. So, FTW ?
I was at some massive oilfield conference last month the Majors are still budgeting new projects around $45 per barrel. Hmmm.
My econ-geek-friends and I have been trying to answer a similar, but related question (actually we're not the only ones... this is the big question of the moment.):
Is speculation the cause for the huge run-up in commodities across the board. Is there a commodities bubble? It's not just oil that has seen a run up, but rice, iron, wheat, you name it...
There seems to be no consensus, and the more I learn the more I'm unsure of myself. There was a Harry S. Truman quote about wishing to find a one armed economist... he was tired of hearing "on one hand... but on the other hand..."
I wouldn't be surprised at all to see oil precipitously drop in the next 3-4 years. It will take a while for the effects of the initial price jump to ripple outward. It's certainly happened that way before. But the world is becoming a much richer place... plenty of potential demand building.
I've been meaning to respond to all of this, but haven't had the time as of yet.
That said...
I was at some massive oilfield conference last month the Majors are still budgeting new projects around $45 per barrel. Hmmm.
This doesn't surprise me, for two reasons:
(1) the majors are risk averse, oil prices have historically been volatile, and there's a fair amount of global uncertainty regarding energy. Obviously, we're still going use oil, but the capital requirement for some of these projects is boggling (as you well know) and a lot of people lost their shirts in the 80s budgeting around high oil prices.
(2) i've heard that production costs are still hovering around $40-45/bbl (for heavy stuff), with delivered costs ranging in the $60s to $70s after tarriffs, etc.
Based on this, I can totally see budgeting around $45/bbl. Thoughts?
Comments 12
that really hits the nail on the head.
the fact that even now I'm having to carefully consider whether I'm flying out to PA to visit friends and family in August really had me thinking about the fact that there's a very real possibility that wherever a lot of us are in 4 or 5 years might be where we're staying for a while.
Reply
Yuppers. Been thinking about that a lot too. Kinda don't mind it, although it sucks to have it imposed upon you. It's good to start contemplating now though, from a proactive sense.
Reply
Reply
Yeah, I see both sides of it: the doom and gloom and the hype. And I agree that it can result in some pretty positive changes (communities, efficiency, etc.)...but I still think it's going to be a shock and potentially have some very destabilizing effects globally.
And yeah, the international travel thing looks set to happen and is seriously depressing, both from your (more lofty) perspective, and a more selfish perspective of wanting to see things.
Le sigh.
We'll adapt though...I'm sure...but it stands to be potentially painful.
Reply
Reply
Reply
Seriously. Ummm, I guess that's one approach. Kinda along the lines of "killing all the humans makes the world a better place"
Me, I think Urbanism is the way to go. For many of the reasons articulated by this guy who does a local free flashmob-style dance party here. I particularly like his line of:
* to all my fellow enviros who talk about living out in the country by yourself? Talk to the hand! What happens when everyone on the planet wants to do that? What makes you get to & no one else?
Reply
As farm land has gone away, due to the exurbs,
city space has opened up, due to the population shift.
Basically, crops getting grown, In the cities.
Of course, this works in areas that have adequate resources.
I'm curious as to what new mexico, and other areas which rely on cheap energy and water , will be like in 10 years.
Reply
Reply
Here's something I've been wondering about: oil barrel prices are up 300-400% from last year or so. Somehow I don't think demand has increased 3 or 4 times in the last year or so. So, FTW ?
I was at some massive oilfield conference last month the Majors are still budgeting new projects around $45 per barrel. Hmmm.
Reply
Is speculation the cause for the huge run-up in commodities across the board. Is there a commodities bubble? It's not just oil that has seen a run up, but rice, iron, wheat, you name it...
There seems to be no consensus, and the more I learn the more I'm unsure of myself. There was a Harry S. Truman quote about wishing to find a one armed economist... he was tired of hearing "on one hand... but on the other hand..."
I wouldn't be surprised at all to see oil precipitously drop in the next 3-4 years. It will take a while for the effects of the initial price jump to ripple outward. It's certainly happened that way before. But the world is becoming a much richer place... plenty of potential demand building.
Reply
I've been meaning to respond to all of this, but haven't had the time as of yet.
That said...
I was at some massive oilfield conference last month the Majors are still budgeting new projects around $45 per barrel. Hmmm.
This doesn't surprise me, for two reasons:
(1) the majors are risk averse, oil prices have historically been volatile, and there's a fair amount of global uncertainty regarding energy. Obviously, we're still going use oil, but the capital requirement for some of these projects is boggling (as you well know) and a lot of people lost their shirts in the 80s budgeting around high oil prices.
(2) i've heard that production costs are still hovering around $40-45/bbl (for heavy stuff), with delivered costs ranging in the $60s to $70s after tarriffs, etc.
Based on this, I can totally see budgeting around $45/bbl. Thoughts?
Reply
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