Sep 08, 2014 12:00
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Comments 10
It worth noticing that the UK Government only offered anything which actually looked like what Scottish voters wanted when it started to look like their votes might threaten the UK Government position.
On this basis, there's every reason to expect that they'll stop respecting these wishes the second the threat is gone (like they did last time).
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My hope there is that it will be fairly obvious to people that it isn't working, and will get changed after a couple of years.
Other people will balance the probabilities differently.
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And I think the economy will collapse pretty quickly, as soon as people realise that money kept in Scotland without a central bank isn't safe. Nobody will put any money in any Scottish bank. And few people will lend to Scotland.
If the SNP had a credible independence plan that explained sensibly what they would do about the critical issue of currency, then I might have been swayed to vote yes. But this blind insistence on 'We'll keep the pound or else!' stinks to me of catastrophe brewing. And it's been done of the cheapest of political reasons, because t hey know a lot of people will vote no if they think it means they'll lose the pound in their pockets.
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Years and years ago, when I was still at university (so early 90s), I wrote an essay arguing that the only way European monetary union would and could work was with massive compensating fiscal flows from country A to country B. That was a minority position then, taken only by the freshest of freshwater monetarists and new classicalists (and almost nobody else among my fellow Magdalen PPEists). Nowadays, apparently even neo-Keynesians like Paul Krugman have come around to my way of thinking.
I feel a little smug that I was right. And more than a little sorry for the victims of this union - the millions of young people in southern European countries faced with a difficult future just so that Volkswagen can sell their parents more cheap Golfs.
I also seem to remember briefly pointing out that this was not likely to be popular in country A.
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Well if we vote no, David Cameron will reveal a goat and we get to choose again!
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