Jan 31, 2012 11:00
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Comments 28
And the counter on the Yes to Independence votes begins to spin upward again...
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No (I am, they're not). Conservatives are in favour of a brand of 'localism' that devolves everything to the individual, they're not keen even on strengthening local authorities, let alone regional bodies-one of the first things they scrapped was regional development agencies and similar.
The typical Tory wordlview is that power should either be held by the person, the property owner, or Westminster, and they broadly favour a unitary state-this is taken to the extreme by UKIP whose position on a chunk of this sort of issue is, well, interesting (and in some cases verging on paranoid delusion but that's another topic).
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I think there are a quite a few people (myself included) who will be picking between Devo-Max and Independence. If Cameron takes Devo-Max off the table then I would expect most of them to vote for Indepedence.
Then there are a number of people who will be annoyed enough at Cameron interferring in, what I think many see as, a private matter for Scottish voters to vote for Independence from a sense of wounded pride.
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I think it will harden the resolve of the SNP and harden the resolve of Scottish voters.
I also think he’s wrong. Devo-Max could work in the UK. Germany and the USA don’t appear to have problems reconciling distributed tax and spend decisions with nationhood.
I’m not sure what happens if the independence vote is close and the SNP run on a manifesto of “So you didn’t quite like that enough, eh? Well how about Devo-Max then?” and win. I struggle to see how the Westminster government could deny Devo-Max without triggering a renewed call for independence.
I can’t help thinking Cameron is either disingenuous about independence (which I don’t believe) or not thinking clearly about the issue. He’s missing something, is blind to something and I can’t work out what.
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That's not quite what happened here in Canada when the government ruled out the Parti Quebecois proposal for "sovereignty association"; it did drive the PQ to double-down, but it made the large undecided vote think seriously on the consequences of a vote that could lead to secession... and ultimately it led to last year's crushing defeat of the federal sovereignist party (Bloc Quebecois) at the polls.
-- Steve is not familiar with the terms of Devo-Max, but one factor in ruling out sovereignty association here in Canada was that it was immensely unfavourable to Canadian interests. (For instance, it wanted Quebec to retain some control over Canadian monetary policy as the semi-independant state wanted to retain the Canadian dollar as its currency...)
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I think the conventional wisdom here is that any percieved "meddling" by Cameron is good for the pro-independence campaign. This is in part driven by the perception that one of the benefits of indepedence is that Scotland won't have the likes of Cameron meddling in Scotland ever again.
But I'm not actually sure if I've seen any polling that supports the conventional wisdom.
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- the PQ was perceived to be highly nativist* which weakened their support among minorities
- Canada's federal/provincial equalisation payment system which led to considerable subsidies to the province while in Confederation
- the counter-threat by First Nations peoples to themselves secede from an independant Quebec in order to remain within Canada, taking with them large tracts of resource-rich lands
I don't think any of those are present in Scotland... but how prominent those were in the rejection of the sovereignist movement is debatable. So how indicative the Quebec experience is in this case is, well, nigh-on indeterminable.-- Steve is reluctant to cast the chicken bones in this one.
* the imposition of language laws, talk of "pur lain" (pure wool) Quebeckers over immigrants, PQ leaders complaining about "the ethnic vote", etc
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Modern apprenticeships are now only coming back into fashion because the government is paying for the majority of the cost, including any salary of the individual while they are at the company.
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;)
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