или может ли быть утро добрым, если тебе снится коммиссия на которой обсуждается постройка нефтепровода через озеро Байкал, дыа =)
Вот кстати, что писал Игорь Томберг еще в далеком 2004 году
One-sided orientation toward China creates other problems. Indeed, successful reforms, orientation toward export and developed domestic market, as well as improved infrastructure coexist with certain negative factors described as risk factors. Here are some of them: doubtful statistics; disproportions and “bubbles” in the financial sphere; regions’ uneven development coupled with social tension; inflated public sector that slows down economic development; suppressed ethnic contradictions. The hypothetical economic risks apart, one cannot ignore the fact that today coal dominates the sphere of consumption of energy resources while the latest strategic schemes describe hydropower stations as a priority. One should add that the potential number of cars in private use in the country has its limits, which means that it will also limit the amounts of oil the country will need.
Меж тем все вышеперечисленные факторы все еще остаются актуальными в 2013 году для Китая.
А вот его прогноз по поводу развития Восточной Сибири в 2004 году вполне можно сравнить с тем, что реально сделало правительство и к чем это привело. В общем, интересно читать умных людей. =)
From this it follows that Siberia needs a pipeline for political as well as for purely economic and technological reasons. President of Transneft Semyon Vainstok believes that so far the pipelines’ capacities are more or less adequate. He has to admit that they are loaded to 100 percent (with the norm of 80 percent), which means that the system’s resource is gradually diminishing. This is not the case of an eternal disagreement between those who extract and those who move oil. Time has come to realize the development strategy for Eastern Siberia and the Far East: we have been talking about it long enough. The country’s continued economic unity is at stake; vast territories have to become a single economic and production complex. Such integration requires: a single system of communication, transmission lines, railways, highways and pipelines. In Russia the latter are absent: this undermines the unity and stability of the entire system of infrastructure support of territorial integrity. Any unstable part of such system may become an undeveloped enclave.
Obviously, instead of complaining about the “threat to Russia’s territorial integrity” (presented, for example, by China) it would be much wiser to develop the load-carrying structure of economic identity. One should bear in mind that undeveloped hydrocarbon reserves of Russia’s eastern territories threaten its energy security.
Everybody knows that production and export of high technologies is much more prestigious and ecologically much safer. So far, we are mainly exporting liquid fuels. Today we should think about how to decrease Russia’s dependence on fuel exports and the concurring risks within an adequate system of coordinates. The answer is simple enough: even if we are doomed to fuel exports as the key to the country’s competitiveness in the foreseeable future we should at least minimize the risk of turning the country into the world economy’s raw-material appendage. Diversification of markets is the only remedy; this will also keep the prices at an acceptable level. In turn, diversification cannot be achieved without creating reliable accesses to the Far Eastern borders (the Chinese border or the Pacific ports). Main oil (and gas) pipelines will make it possible to address the task of domestic economic integration, to boost Russia’s export competitiveness and to meet the interests of the fuel-energy complex by linking it with much more promising and cheaper fuel sources. A newly created and denser system of infrastructure (made up of pipelines, highways and transmission lines) will help deal with the integration issues and will add to the country’s export potential.
There is another side of the same issue: to which extent will new capacities correspond to the dynamics of their loading (current and predicted extraction) and worldwide oil demand? There is the opinion that China seeks control over oil exports to Japan and Korea for the sake of political advantages, therefore it is trying to concentrate a larger part of energy exports from Russia and Central Asia.
А еще вот смешная статейка с яху про питие в различных странах, причем дата с WHO, так что можно сказать,что куда уж точнее =)
И Россия там не на первом месте.
http://theweek.com/article/index/260649/how-the-world-gets-drunk-in-4-surprising-charts Ну, а кому интересна статья Игоря Томберга тык сюда =>
http://www.ca-c.org/journal/2004/journal_eng/cac-01/14.tomeng.shtml