"The Clouded Crystal Ball..."
I got this in an e-mail today and it was pretty interesting, though long, and I thought I'd go ahead and post it...Enjoy!
The clouded crystal ball
The formerly iconic New Yorker once had a feature called "The Clouded
Crystal Ball" in which they recorded comments and prophesies which
turned out to be egregiously wrong.
You will find attached, a compendium of utterances which not merely
clouded the crystal -- it turned it into a bowling ball!
This brings to mind Yogi Berra's celebrated remark, "Predictions can be
tricky -- especially about the future."
"There is no likelihood man can ever tap the power of the atom." --
Robert Millikan, Nobel Prize in Physics, 1923
"Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons." -- Popular
Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers ." -- Thomas
Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
"I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with
the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that
won't last out the year."-- The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957
"But what is it good for?" commenting on the microchip. -- Engineer at
the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968
"640K ought to be enough for anybody."
-- Bill Gates, 1981
"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered
as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to
us,"
--Western Union internal memo, 1876
"The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would
pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?" in response to urgings
for investment in the radio in the 1920s. -- David Sarnoff' Associates
(president of RCA)
"The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn better
than a 'C', the idea must be feasible,"
-- A Yale University management professor in response to Fred Smith's
paper proposing reliable overnight delivery service. Smith went on to
found Federal Express.
"I'm just glad it will be Clark Gable who falls on his face, not Gary
Cooper,"
-- Gary Cooper on his decision not to take the leading role in Gone With
The Wind.
"A cookie store is a bad idea. Besides, the market research reports say
America likes crispy cookies, not soft and chewy cookies like you make,"
-- Response to Debbi Fields' idea of starting Mrs. Fields' Cookies
"We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out." --
Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962
"Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible," -- Lord Kelvin, president Royal Society,
1895
"If I had thought about it, I wouldn't have done the experiment. The
literature was full of examples that said you can't do this." -- Spencer
Silver on the work that led to the unique adhesives for 3-M "Post-It"
Notepads.
"Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil?
You're crazy,"
-- Drillers who Edwin L. Drake tried to enlist to his project to drill
for oil, 1859
"Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." --
Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1929
"Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value," -- Marechal
Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre,
France
"Everything that can be invented has been invented." -- Charles H.
Duell, Commissioner, US Office of Patents, 1899
"The super computer is technologically impossible. It would take all of
the water that flows over Niagara Falls to cool the heat generated by
the number of vacuum tubes required."
-- Professor of Electrical Engineering, New York University
"I don't know what use any one could find for a machine that would make
copies of documents. It certainly couldn't be a feasible business by
itself.
-- the head of IBM, refusing to back the idea, forcing the inventor to
found Xerox
"Louis Pasteur's theory of germs is ridiculous fiction." -- Pierre
Pachet, Professor of Physiology at Toulouse, 1872
" The abdomen, the chest, and the brain will forever be shut from the
intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon." -- Sir John Eric Ericksen,
British surgeon, appointed Surgeon-Extraordinary to Queen Victoria 1873
And last but not least...
"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." -- Ken
Olson, president, chairman, founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977
The clouded crystal ball
The formerly iconic New Yorker once had a feature called "The Clouded
Crystal Ball" in which they recorded comments and prophesies which
turned out to be egregiously wrong.
You will find attached, a compendium of utterances which not merely
clouded the crystal -- it turned it into a bowling ball!
This brings to mind Yogi Berra's celebrated remark, "Predictions can be
tricky -- especially about the future."
"There is no likelihood man can ever tap the power of the atom." --
Robert Millikan, Nobel Prize in Physics, 1923
"Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons." -- Popular
Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers ." -- Thomas
Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
"I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with
the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that
won't last out the year."-- The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957
"But what is it good for?" commenting on the microchip. -- Engineer at
the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968
"640K ought to be enough for anybody."
-- Bill Gates, 1981
"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered
as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to
us,"
--Western Union internal memo, 1876
"The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would
pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?" in response to urgings
for investment in the radio in the 1920s. -- David Sarnoff' Associates
(president of RCA)
"The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn better
than a 'C', the idea must be feasible,"
-- A Yale University management professor in response to Fred Smith's
paper proposing reliable overnight delivery service. Smith went on to
found Federal Express.
"I'm just glad it will be Clark Gable who falls on his face, not Gary
Cooper,"
-- Gary Cooper on his decision not to take the leading role in Gone With
The Wind.
"A cookie store is a bad idea. Besides, the market research reports say
America likes crispy cookies, not soft and chewy cookies like you make,"
-- Response to Debbi Fields' idea of starting Mrs. Fields' Cookies
"We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out." --
Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962
"Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible," -- Lord Kelvin, president Royal Society,
1895
"If I had thought about it, I wouldn't have done the experiment. The
literature was full of examples that said you can't do this." -- Spencer
Silver on the work that led to the unique adhesives for 3-M "Post-It"
Notepads.
"Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil?
You're crazy,"
-- Drillers who Edwin L. Drake tried to enlist to his project to drill
for oil, 1859
"Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." --
Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1929
"Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value," -- Marechal
Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre,
France
"Everything that can be invented has been invented." -- Charles H.
Duell, Commissioner, US Office of Patents, 1899
"The super computer is technologically impossible. It would take all of
the water that flows over Niagara Falls to cool the heat generated by
the number of vacuum tubes required."
-- Professor of Electrical Engineering, New York University
"I don't know what use any one could find for a machine that would make
copies of documents. It certainly couldn't be a feasible business by
itself.
-- the head of IBM, refusing to back the idea, forcing the inventor to
found Xerox
"Louis Pasteur's theory of germs is ridiculous fiction." -- Pierre
Pachet, Professor of Physiology at Toulouse, 1872
" The abdomen, the chest, and the brain will forever be shut from the
intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon." -- Sir John Eric Ericksen,
British surgeon, appointed Surgeon-Extraordinary to Queen Victoria 1873
And last but not least...
"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." -- Ken
Olson, president, chairman, founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977