wave 99l x-posted to lj
At this time, a tropical wave has formed off the coast of Africa. The
visible satellite-derived apparent center of circulation is at
approximately 32.5 W, 7.2 N, or approximately 1800 nautical miles (2100
statue miles) east-southeast of Puerto Rico, moving west at
approximately 20-25kts / 27-33mph. ETA to Puerto Rico seems to be
approximately 3 days.
visible satellite loop
The potential for tropical development of this system seems to be high,
as shear values ahead of the storm are predicted to be low, and the
storm is surrounded in the local region by moderately warm water
temperatures and low shear. 99l will be slowing developing as it moves
over warmer water.
This system should be considered over the long rung; should it affect
the Gulf of Mexico, it will do so in 7-10 days. Expect advisories from
the National Weather Service to begin in 24-48 hours regarding this
system.
Basic models seem to continue tracking this system west-northwestward,
although the predominant motion is definitely westward. Tropical
development models at this time do not seem to initialize this system
well, and further data (i.e., time) is probably required before we can
make any sort of assessment based on tropical development models; even
the normally-aggressive Canadian model does not initialize this system
well.
model runs mostly based on climatology, i.e., pulled from the collective arse of the NHC
Factors in track prediction include the development of a high pressure
system over the northern Atlantic, forecast to weaken and withdraw from
the tropics. Also a potential factor is a strong front moving off the
east coast of the US. While 99l will not be affected by this front, a
less vigorous tropical wave off the southeastern coast of Cuba will be.
QUIKSCAT wind analysis
And now you know.
visible satellite-derived apparent center of circulation is at
approximately 32.5 W, 7.2 N, or approximately 1800 nautical miles (2100
statue miles) east-southeast of Puerto Rico, moving west at
approximately 20-25kts / 27-33mph. ETA to Puerto Rico seems to be
approximately 3 days.
visible satellite loop
The potential for tropical development of this system seems to be high,
as shear values ahead of the storm are predicted to be low, and the
storm is surrounded in the local region by moderately warm water
temperatures and low shear. 99l will be slowing developing as it moves
over warmer water.
This system should be considered over the long rung; should it affect
the Gulf of Mexico, it will do so in 7-10 days. Expect advisories from
the National Weather Service to begin in 24-48 hours regarding this
system.
Basic models seem to continue tracking this system west-northwestward,
although the predominant motion is definitely westward. Tropical
development models at this time do not seem to initialize this system
well, and further data (i.e., time) is probably required before we can
make any sort of assessment based on tropical development models; even
the normally-aggressive Canadian model does not initialize this system
well.
model runs mostly based on climatology, i.e., pulled from the collective arse of the NHC
Factors in track prediction include the development of a high pressure
system over the northern Atlantic, forecast to weaken and withdraw from
the tropics. Also a potential factor is a strong front moving off the
east coast of the US. While 99l will not be affected by this front, a
less vigorous tropical wave off the southeastern coast of Cuba will be.
QUIKSCAT wind analysis
And now you know.