Hurricane Season
Yep, it's that time again, and yours truly has been reviewing the hurricane forecasts.
Basically, the upshot is this: Last year all over again; maybe more so.
Yes. It's ridiculous. But there it is.
Follow me on this one: The current report (written in December) forecasts less storms than we had last year. HOWEVER: The 1 dec 2005 report forecasts MORE storms for 2006 than the 1 dec 2004 report did for 2005.
Our particular -county- is forecast to have more than double our usual probability for being the site of a direct hurricane strike. The report virtually guarantees (62% -- which is a HUGE number to be forecasting six months out from now) that there will be a hurricane making landfall between New Orleans and Panama City (Region 3). There is a 30.2% chance that we will experience an intense (Category 3 or higher) storm making landfall in our region (3). On the plus side, there's only a 2.5% chance that we'll get TWO intense hurricanes. On the down side, that's double the usual chance.
Make sure you know what you'll be doing in the event of a hurricane, because when it comes, there may not be much time to plan.
| I | N | T | E | G | R | A | L | S |
my anti-derivative
Basically, the upshot is this: Last year all over again; maybe more so.
Yes. It's ridiculous. But there it is.
Follow me on this one: The current report (written in December) forecasts less storms than we had last year. HOWEVER: The 1 dec 2005 report forecasts MORE storms for 2006 than the 1 dec 2004 report did for 2005.
Our particular -county- is forecast to have more than double our usual probability for being the site of a direct hurricane strike. The report virtually guarantees (62% -- which is a HUGE number to be forecasting six months out from now) that there will be a hurricane making landfall between New Orleans and Panama City (Region 3). There is a 30.2% chance that we will experience an intense (Category 3 or higher) storm making landfall in our region (3). On the plus side, there's only a 2.5% chance that we'll get TWO intense hurricanes. On the down side, that's double the usual chance.
Make sure you know what you'll be doing in the event of a hurricane, because when it comes, there may not be much time to plan.
| I | N | T | E | G | R | A | L | S |
my anti-derivative