Monte Carlo SF Predictions...
A certain Mr. Federer made my day today, beating a temporarily non-flaky David Nalbandian 5-7, 6-2, 6-2. From the comments made by my match-calling friends at TennisWorld, it seems that this match is a keeper for those collecting The Amazing Matches of Roger Federer (i.e. am going to hunt for a download for this one). I'm also liking how he got so pumped up to win this match that he yelled something (jawohl?) at his box upon winning match point. Here's a GIF of it, made by one of the posters at the RF.com forum:
It's a really good win, perhaps Federer's biggest win so far this year, and I am extremely pleased, having predicted that the match would go the other way. (I know I predicted him as a semifinalist, but hadn't counted on Nalbandian being in good form long enough to beat Robredo in the round of 16. Thought today's match would've been against Robredo, a much easier prospect to think about.)
And since we're talking about predictions, my statistically-improbable Challenge Bracket one came true today: all four top seeds are in the semi-finals of Monte Carlo. Apparently, this has not happened at a Masters Series event in eons. We have Kolya silently assassinating everyone foolish enough to stand in his path, Rafa running quality players ragged and then scalping them, Nole methodically and clinically decapitating his opponents, and the Fed surviving an early-round near-death experience to grit his way into some form.
I like it. And here are my predictions for the semifinals:
[1] R. Federer v. [3] N. Djokovic - Federer
Djokovic's had a string of straight-set victories against players not really known for their clay court game, the latest of which being unseeded American Sam Querrey (who admittedly and admirably has had a great run, beating two seeded players in Moya and Gasquet along the way). Federer's journey through this tournament has been well-recounted here; very hearteningly, he seems today to have struck a vein of form harkening back to pre-2008 times. He's going to need it tomorrow against Djokovic. Both players are very hungry, but Djokovic's the better-rested one. Whatever the result, I'm hoping that it's a good match.
EDIT (before match start): I'm going with Federer. Screw gambler's odds. Before the tournament started, I predicted him in the final, with a win over Djokovic in the semis, so I've decided to stop hedging my bets. He has a good chance of winning; not as high, perhaps, as it was last year, but definitely not as low as it was in Indian Wells this year.
[4] N. Davydenko v. [2] R. Nadal - Nadal
Davydenko's been playing very well of late, but his recent victory over Nadal at the Miami final earlier this month doesn't mean jackshit during the clay season, where the strengths of Nadal's game are complemented, rather than negated, by the surface. Also, Davydenko's got a bit of a mental block (or, used to have) when it comes to players ranked higher than him. That said, Kolya's got the game to give Nadal trouble even on clay, as evidenced by their semifinal match in Rome last year. If both bring their best tomorrow, there'll be a match. I suspect, though, that Nadal will find a way to win that.
It's a really good win, perhaps Federer's biggest win so far this year, and I am extremely pleased, having predicted that the match would go the other way. (I know I predicted him as a semifinalist, but hadn't counted on Nalbandian being in good form long enough to beat Robredo in the round of 16. Thought today's match would've been against Robredo, a much easier prospect to think about.)
And since we're talking about predictions, my statistically-improbable Challenge Bracket one came true today: all four top seeds are in the semi-finals of Monte Carlo. Apparently, this has not happened at a Masters Series event in eons. We have Kolya silently assassinating everyone foolish enough to stand in his path, Rafa running quality players ragged and then scalping them, Nole methodically and clinically decapitating his opponents, and the Fed surviving an early-round near-death experience to grit his way into some form.
I like it. And here are my predictions for the semifinals:
[1] R. Federer v. [3] N. Djokovic - Federer
Djokovic's had a string of straight-set victories against players not really known for their clay court game, the latest of which being unseeded American Sam Querrey (who admittedly and admirably has had a great run, beating two seeded players in Moya and Gasquet along the way). Federer's journey through this tournament has been well-recounted here; very hearteningly, he seems today to have struck a vein of form harkening back to pre-2008 times. He's going to need it tomorrow against Djokovic. Both players are very hungry, but Djokovic's the better-rested one. Whatever the result, I'm hoping that it's a good match.
EDIT (before match start): I'm going with Federer. Screw gambler's odds. Before the tournament started, I predicted him in the final, with a win over Djokovic in the semis, so I've decided to stop hedging my bets. He has a good chance of winning; not as high, perhaps, as it was last year, but definitely not as low as it was in Indian Wells this year.
[4] N. Davydenko v. [2] R. Nadal - Nadal
Davydenko's been playing very well of late, but his recent victory over Nadal at the Miami final earlier this month doesn't mean jackshit during the clay season, where the strengths of Nadal's game are complemented, rather than negated, by the surface. Also, Davydenko's got a bit of a mental block (or, used to have) when it comes to players ranked higher than him. That said, Kolya's got the game to give Nadal trouble even on clay, as evidenced by their semifinal match in Rome last year. If both bring their best tomorrow, there'll be a match. I suspect, though, that Nadal will find a way to win that.