Monte Carlo R32: Another shaky performance from Federer gets him into the third round
... sometimes I really don't know what's happening with the guy. After comfortably handing qualifier Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo a breadstick in the first set, he totally left Mother Earth (and not in a good way) and played atrociously until Ramirez-Hidalgo was serving for the match at 5-2, 30-30 in the third. At this point, the Spaniard proceeded to choke and Federer found his game in time to salvage a win despite being a double break down in the deciding set.
If you still remember my reaction 3 days ago to Ferrer winning his match against Almagro after trailing by a similar margin, it would seem that someone out there is really intent on proving my double break hypothesis wrong. On the other hand, I find that the circumstances aren't quite the same. Federer was struggling against a qualifier ranked outside the top 100, which is kind of a world of a difference to Ferrer struggling against Almagro, a top 30 player who excels on clay courts. I.e. I can very well see Almagro putting Ferrer in a spot, but Federer shouldn't even have got to the point of having to come back from such a deficit. There are other arguments I'd put forth, but I think that one in particular is telling enough.
Where does he go from here? Well, I'm glad to say that he's not actually out of the tournament, which would've been a disaster (he's defending 350 points from being in the final last year). There are two ways this can pan out. Firstly, he does this same thing against a stronger opponent and gets mercilessly blasted out in R16, or secondly, he gets his act together and at least beats Monfils in the next round.
Predictions for R16
[1] R. Federer v. G. Monfils - Federer
Dear Roger, if you may, please try not to leave Planet Earth unless you intend to play "in the zone". Monfils is a decent player, but he shouldn't pose too much of a threat.
[12] T. Robredo v. [6] D. Nalbandian - Nalbandian
I have Robredo winning this matchup on the Bracket Circuit. I'm not sure why I chose him over Nalbandian, because right now I have a distinct feeling that Nalbandian will win this one.
[3] N. Djokovic v. [14] A. Murray - Djokovic
Murray isn't quite there yet.
S. Querrey v. [7] R. Gasquet - Gasquet
Good run for Querrey, but if Gasquet doesn't flake out the match will go to the Frenchman.
I. Andreev v. N. Almagro - Almagro
Almagro's the better claycourt player, methinks.
[16] P. Kohlschreiber v. [4] N. Davydenko - Davydenko
[5] D. Ferrer v. J. Tipsarevic - Ferrer
Didn't see this matchup coming up. Think Ferrer will outclass Tipsarevic, though.
[13] J. Ferrero v. [2] R. Nadal - Nadal
I'm glad I didn't have to watch Ancic losing 6-0, 6-3 to Nadal today. Look. Nadal is in good form, and I think he's on the prowl for his first silverware of the season. I don't think many people stand a chance against him on clay when he's in full health.
EDIT: R16 Results
Federer d. Monfils 63 64 (correct)
Nalbandian d. Robredo 61 60 (correct, though the scoreline is unexpected)
Djokovic d. Murray 60 64 (correct. Murray - ouch.)
Querrey d. Gasquet 26 64 63 (incorrect. Gasquet - ouch.)
Andreev d. Almagro 75 46 64 (incorrect)
Davydenko d. Kohlschreiber 36 75 62 (correct)
Ferrer d. Tipsarevic 64 60 (correct)
Nadal d. Ferrero 64 61 (correct)
If you still remember my reaction 3 days ago to Ferrer winning his match against Almagro after trailing by a similar margin, it would seem that someone out there is really intent on proving my double break hypothesis wrong. On the other hand, I find that the circumstances aren't quite the same. Federer was struggling against a qualifier ranked outside the top 100, which is kind of a world of a difference to Ferrer struggling against Almagro, a top 30 player who excels on clay courts. I.e. I can very well see Almagro putting Ferrer in a spot, but Federer shouldn't even have got to the point of having to come back from such a deficit. There are other arguments I'd put forth, but I think that one in particular is telling enough.
Where does he go from here? Well, I'm glad to say that he's not actually out of the tournament, which would've been a disaster (he's defending 350 points from being in the final last year). There are two ways this can pan out. Firstly, he does this same thing against a stronger opponent and gets mercilessly blasted out in R16, or secondly, he gets his act together and at least beats Monfils in the next round.
Predictions for R16
[1] R. Federer v. G. Monfils - Federer
Dear Roger, if you may, please try not to leave Planet Earth unless you intend to play "in the zone". Monfils is a decent player, but he shouldn't pose too much of a threat.
[12] T. Robredo v. [6] D. Nalbandian - Nalbandian
I have Robredo winning this matchup on the Bracket Circuit. I'm not sure why I chose him over Nalbandian, because right now I have a distinct feeling that Nalbandian will win this one.
[3] N. Djokovic v. [14] A. Murray - Djokovic
Murray isn't quite there yet.
S. Querrey v. [7] R. Gasquet - Gasquet
Good run for Querrey, but if Gasquet doesn't flake out the match will go to the Frenchman.
I. Andreev v. N. Almagro - Almagro
Almagro's the better claycourt player, methinks.
[16] P. Kohlschreiber v. [4] N. Davydenko - Davydenko
[5] D. Ferrer v. J. Tipsarevic - Ferrer
Didn't see this matchup coming up. Think Ferrer will outclass Tipsarevic, though.
[13] J. Ferrero v. [2] R. Nadal - Nadal
I'm glad I didn't have to watch Ancic losing 6-0, 6-3 to Nadal today. Look. Nadal is in good form, and I think he's on the prowl for his first silverware of the season. I don't think many people stand a chance against him on clay when he's in full health.
EDIT: R16 Results
Federer d. Monfils 63 64 (correct)
Nalbandian d. Robredo 61 60 (correct, though the scoreline is unexpected)
Djokovic d. Murray 60 64 (correct. Murray - ouch.)
Querrey d. Gasquet 26 64 63 (incorrect. Gasquet - ouch.)
Andreev d. Almagro 75 46 64 (incorrect)
Davydenko d. Kohlschreiber 36 75 62 (correct)
Ferrer d. Tipsarevic 64 60 (correct)
Nadal d. Ferrero 64 61 (correct)