Federer's chances at Wimbledon...
I wasn't ready to deal with the "End of an era?!!111!!1!11!ONE" discussion at 1AM, especially after a week of systematically depriving myself of sleep, but am willing to give it a shot now.
Anyway, just to pass on an interesting tidbit, the pre-tournament press conference with Federer is now here at the Wimbledon website. I'd normally not call any attention to a presser, but he mentioned not reading or talking to the press, which is rather unusual by Federer's standards. I get this impression that he's just slightly disillusioned with the media at the moment. Hard not to be, when they ask you straight off if you think you're going downhill. And predict merrily that you're going to lose at Wimbledon...
Speaking of which, is Federer going to lose at Wimbledon? Well, I'd say the warning signs are there and everyone's been waxing lyrical about them:
First, I guess Federer's record this year hasn't been awful, but it's the end of the world because he hasn't lost this often (8 matches and counting) since... 2003, where he won Wimbledon and finished up the year-end #2. Yeah... Jokes aside, there's real danger here; I feel that he hasn't been looking that sharp since the whole mono thing sapped his conditioning and the subsequent losses shook his confidence. Undeniably, there's a real chance someone else will walk away with the Wimbledon trophy this year.
That someone may very well be Nadal, who, coming off his fourth consecutive French Open win and first grass court title at Queen's Club, is looking bigger and badder on the grass than he did last year. While his game on grass is not quite the impregnable force it is on the clay (i.e. people can actually hit winners past him), it still looked pretty damned good there. Also, Djokovic should be put in the mix as a contender this year, I think. He did lose to Nadal at the Queen's Club, but he clearly has it in him to be consistent enough to get to the semifinals at least. There, we'll hopefully see what both he and Federer are made of.
Finally, tough draw. With Djokovic in his half and a bunch of potentially dangerous fast-court players in his quarter (potential matchups: Hrbaty R1, Soderling R2, Monfils/Nishikori R3, Gonzalez/Hewitt R4, Ferrer/Ancic/Berdych QF) there's not much room to go walkabout. If he does, KA-BOOM!
So we've seen the arguments for Federer losing Wimbledon. He's getting old, he's lost his edge, Nadal is getting better, perhaps Djokovic will beat him in the semifinals, or maybe one of the other dangerous floaters in his quarter will do the honours... OK, but I'm picking Federer to win Wimbledon this year. Maybe it's the fan bias talking, but let's go over the counter-arguments, shall we?
First of all, the guy has a 59-match winning streak on grass. Er, that means he's won every match he's played on grass since... 2003, when the world last ended. That's 5 Wimbledons and 5 Halles, pretty much. The grass does the same thing for his game that red clay does for Nadal's: it complements his strengths, doesn't show up his weaknesses, and gives him a psychological advantage over his opponents. In effect, this is Federer's best surface and it'll be difficult, though probably not impossible, to beat him here.
As for recent grass form, I think it's been decent but not conclusively so. Federer reached the French Open final to get hazed by an in-the-zone Nadal (as opposed to losing without getting hazed, which was the norm previously), then proceeded to stomp over the weak field in Halle without dropping serve. He's all right, but no real conclusions can be drawn about his grass form until the first matches start in Wimbledon tomorrow.
Next, the draw. It's tough, but I'm of the belief that Federer brings out his A-game more when he feels that the opponent will challenge him (cf. Wimbledon 2006, where he mowed through a tough draw while dropping only a set en route to the title. Or Monte Carlo this year, rallying after that almost-disastrous match against Ramirez-Hidalgo to beat Nalbandian and Djokovic en route to the final). A difficult draw will probably help him focus more than an easy draw would. It's all down to how you spin things, isn't it?
My conclusion is that I'd be very cautious when it comes to predicting the winner of this year's event. As I wrote in the wee hours of this morning, if my semifinalist predictions really come true, it'd a bit of a tossup from then onwards. I wouldn't feel good picking any one of those four to win, because each of them have a real chance. However, as I've been reflecting on Federer's year so far (clay season onwards), I've noticed a pattern of him largely being able to defend his points when he's needed to do so, the only exception being Hamburg. I won't count him out until he's out. Not here.
Anyway, just to pass on an interesting tidbit, the pre-tournament press conference with Federer is now here at the Wimbledon website. I'd normally not call any attention to a presser, but he mentioned not reading or talking to the press, which is rather unusual by Federer's standards. I get this impression that he's just slightly disillusioned with the media at the moment. Hard not to be, when they ask you straight off if you think you're going downhill. And predict merrily that you're going to lose at Wimbledon...
Speaking of which, is Federer going to lose at Wimbledon? Well, I'd say the warning signs are there and everyone's been waxing lyrical about them:
First, I guess Federer's record this year hasn't been awful, but it's the end of the world because he hasn't lost this often (8 matches and counting) since... 2003, where he won Wimbledon and finished up the year-end #2. Yeah... Jokes aside, there's real danger here; I feel that he hasn't been looking that sharp since the whole mono thing sapped his conditioning and the subsequent losses shook his confidence. Undeniably, there's a real chance someone else will walk away with the Wimbledon trophy this year.
That someone may very well be Nadal, who, coming off his fourth consecutive French Open win and first grass court title at Queen's Club, is looking bigger and badder on the grass than he did last year. While his game on grass is not quite the impregnable force it is on the clay (i.e. people can actually hit winners past him), it still looked pretty damned good there. Also, Djokovic should be put in the mix as a contender this year, I think. He did lose to Nadal at the Queen's Club, but he clearly has it in him to be consistent enough to get to the semifinals at least. There, we'll hopefully see what both he and Federer are made of.
Finally, tough draw. With Djokovic in his half and a bunch of potentially dangerous fast-court players in his quarter (potential matchups: Hrbaty R1, Soderling R2, Monfils/Nishikori R3, Gonzalez/Hewitt R4, Ferrer/Ancic/Berdych QF) there's not much room to go walkabout. If he does, KA-BOOM!
So we've seen the arguments for Federer losing Wimbledon. He's getting old, he's lost his edge, Nadal is getting better, perhaps Djokovic will beat him in the semifinals, or maybe one of the other dangerous floaters in his quarter will do the honours... OK, but I'm picking Federer to win Wimbledon this year. Maybe it's the fan bias talking, but let's go over the counter-arguments, shall we?
First of all, the guy has a 59-match winning streak on grass. Er, that means he's won every match he's played on grass since... 2003, when the world last ended. That's 5 Wimbledons and 5 Halles, pretty much. The grass does the same thing for his game that red clay does for Nadal's: it complements his strengths, doesn't show up his weaknesses, and gives him a psychological advantage over his opponents. In effect, this is Federer's best surface and it'll be difficult, though probably not impossible, to beat him here.
As for recent grass form, I think it's been decent but not conclusively so. Federer reached the French Open final to get hazed by an in-the-zone Nadal (as opposed to losing without getting hazed, which was the norm previously), then proceeded to stomp over the weak field in Halle without dropping serve. He's all right, but no real conclusions can be drawn about his grass form until the first matches start in Wimbledon tomorrow.
Next, the draw. It's tough, but I'm of the belief that Federer brings out his A-game more when he feels that the opponent will challenge him (cf. Wimbledon 2006, where he mowed through a tough draw while dropping only a set en route to the title. Or Monte Carlo this year, rallying after that almost-disastrous match against Ramirez-Hidalgo to beat Nalbandian and Djokovic en route to the final). A difficult draw will probably help him focus more than an easy draw would. It's all down to how you spin things, isn't it?
My conclusion is that I'd be very cautious when it comes to predicting the winner of this year's event. As I wrote in the wee hours of this morning, if my semifinalist predictions really come true, it'd a bit of a tossup from then onwards. I wouldn't feel good picking any one of those four to win, because each of them have a real chance. However, as I've been reflecting on Federer's year so far (clay season onwards), I've noticed a pattern of him largely being able to defend his points when he's needed to do so, the only exception being Hamburg. I won't count him out until he's out. Not here.