Some math.
Well, I really shouldn't be posting now, but since I did the math last night, thought I'd comment a little about the ranking points going into Wimbledon.
Currently, the points totals for the top three players in the ATP are as follows (minus last year's Wimbledon points in brackets):
Federer: 6900 (5900)
Nadal: 5755 (5055)
Djokovic: 5360 (4910)
For Federer to lose the No. 1 ranking right after Wimbledon, either Nadal or Djokovic will have to win the tournament to get the maximum 1000 points. Getting to the final will not do it for either of them in any theoretical scenario, as the 5755 and 5610 points that they'd end up with are still short of the 5900 that Federer would have if he withdrew from the tournament today. A win would give them 6055 and 5910 points respectively, bringing them over that lower threshold. Not only that; if Federer gets to the quarterfinals and beyond, his hold on the #1 ranking is confirmed even if one of the other two hoists the title. Nevertheless, if he doesn't win Wimbledon, the points gap will shrink drastically, and with all the points that he needs to defend during the summer hardcourt season, chances are that the #1 will be lost somewhere along the line.
Mindboggling #1 math aside, it's quite clear that without last year's Wimbledon points in the totals for Nadal and Djokovic, the world #3 is effectively only 145 points behind the #2. Golden opportunity for Djokovic. He needs to get to the quarterfinals at least, and from there advance one round further than Nadal does to get the #2 ranking. If they meet in the semis or finals, the winner will yet again walk away with the advantage in the rankings.
The rest of the field is a ways behind, I think. The gap in points between #3 and #4 is the same as that between #4 and #40. Er, sucking all the air out of the room, much?
Currently, the points totals for the top three players in the ATP are as follows (minus last year's Wimbledon points in brackets):
Federer: 6900 (5900)
Nadal: 5755 (5055)
Djokovic: 5360 (4910)
For Federer to lose the No. 1 ranking right after Wimbledon, either Nadal or Djokovic will have to win the tournament to get the maximum 1000 points. Getting to the final will not do it for either of them in any theoretical scenario, as the 5755 and 5610 points that they'd end up with are still short of the 5900 that Federer would have if he withdrew from the tournament today. A win would give them 6055 and 5910 points respectively, bringing them over that lower threshold. Not only that; if Federer gets to the quarterfinals and beyond, his hold on the #1 ranking is confirmed even if one of the other two hoists the title. Nevertheless, if he doesn't win Wimbledon, the points gap will shrink drastically, and with all the points that he needs to defend during the summer hardcourt season, chances are that the #1 will be lost somewhere along the line.
Mindboggling #1 math aside, it's quite clear that without last year's Wimbledon points in the totals for Nadal and Djokovic, the world #3 is effectively only 145 points behind the #2. Golden opportunity for Djokovic. He needs to get to the quarterfinals at least, and from there advance one round further than Nadal does to get the #2 ranking. If they meet in the semis or finals, the winner will yet again walk away with the advantage in the rankings.
The rest of the field is a ways behind, I think. The gap in points between #3 and #4 is the same as that between #4 and #40. Er, sucking all the air out of the room, much?