Elections 2010 Special!
Because we're getting into the thick of election season (US party primaries, the British GE tomorrow, and November of course), it's time for a periodic update, including predictions for tomorrow's British poll numbers.
As a quick aside, there's more smoke from the sinking House majority of the Democrats.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0510/36812.html
You know things are really tough when a guy like Obey isn't running for re-election. The man has represented the Wisconsin 7th for *41* years. Space aliens were more likely to abduct him, it was widely though, than for him to lose his seat, but even he was facing some ugly early numbers looking ahead to November. Even if the Dems hold on to the House (something I put at a 70-80% likelihood, albeit with a majority of less than 10 being a 50-50 proposition), his loss could spell the end of Pelosi as the Speaker. He's been a major figure in the institutional Democratic Party in Washington for decades, and one of the solid pillars of support for Pelosi in party infighting.
Back to the British GE tomorrow, though.
The polling data has been all over the place, since the leadership debates, with a few minor trends that are identifiable. Conservatives are 4 to 8 points off of their pre-election high water mark; Labour is off another 3 to 5 points, with a few bigger outlier polls; the recipient of this windfall has been almost exclusively Lib-Dem, although some of the marginal parties have seen upticks that fall within polling error range-- if their support wasn't at 2% or 3%, it would be easier to identify if they were really getting some 'to hell with you all' bounce.
As the last week has drawn the contest towards the finish line, some of that Lib-Dem support has started to soften, though, and return to the Big Two-- it may only represent a 1%-3% shift overall, but in the British electoral system, that can mean massive things.
It's not going to be enough to give the Torries a parliamentary majority, though-- something that looked extremely likely even a month and a half ago.
I'll predict that the Conservatives will get the largest vote share, and will represent the largest block of Parliamentary MPs; rather than forging a true coalition government, though, they will form a minority government, and depend on the Unionist parties to provide a razor-thin margin (one, maybe two seats) by which to hold power and advance Conservative policies. If Cameron can't get that boat to hold water, he's probably out as party leader in 4 years or so.
The Lib Dems support will be very strong-- almost strong enough, to overtake Labor in vote-share, but not nearly enough to overtake them in MPs, because of constituency skews. Shy Torries will not give hidden bounces, though the Shy Labour voter may poke their head up a bit this cycle. The better and more recent targeted polls are showing a resurgence in Labour support, particularly in public sector employees and urban voters.
Final tallies:
Vote Share:
Conservatives: 35.8%
Lib-Dems: 26.2%
Labour: 27.3%
MPs:
Conservative: 289
Labour: 253
Lib-Dem: 79
DUP: 8
SNP: 8
Others: 13
---
No seats for the UKIP or the BNP, though I guarantee at least 30 minutes of BBC coverage is devoted to having one Lib-Dem, one Conservative, and one Labour representative engaging in hand wringing over the success level of the BNP. It's like an annual right of passage in British election seasons.
As a quick aside, there's more smoke from the sinking House majority of the Democrats.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0510/36812.html
You know things are really tough when a guy like Obey isn't running for re-election. The man has represented the Wisconsin 7th for *41* years. Space aliens were more likely to abduct him, it was widely though, than for him to lose his seat, but even he was facing some ugly early numbers looking ahead to November. Even if the Dems hold on to the House (something I put at a 70-80% likelihood, albeit with a majority of less than 10 being a 50-50 proposition), his loss could spell the end of Pelosi as the Speaker. He's been a major figure in the institutional Democratic Party in Washington for decades, and one of the solid pillars of support for Pelosi in party infighting.
Back to the British GE tomorrow, though.
The polling data has been all over the place, since the leadership debates, with a few minor trends that are identifiable. Conservatives are 4 to 8 points off of their pre-election high water mark; Labour is off another 3 to 5 points, with a few bigger outlier polls; the recipient of this windfall has been almost exclusively Lib-Dem, although some of the marginal parties have seen upticks that fall within polling error range-- if their support wasn't at 2% or 3%, it would be easier to identify if they were really getting some 'to hell with you all' bounce.
As the last week has drawn the contest towards the finish line, some of that Lib-Dem support has started to soften, though, and return to the Big Two-- it may only represent a 1%-3% shift overall, but in the British electoral system, that can mean massive things.
It's not going to be enough to give the Torries a parliamentary majority, though-- something that looked extremely likely even a month and a half ago.
I'll predict that the Conservatives will get the largest vote share, and will represent the largest block of Parliamentary MPs; rather than forging a true coalition government, though, they will form a minority government, and depend on the Unionist parties to provide a razor-thin margin (one, maybe two seats) by which to hold power and advance Conservative policies. If Cameron can't get that boat to hold water, he's probably out as party leader in 4 years or so.
The Lib Dems support will be very strong-- almost strong enough, to overtake Labor in vote-share, but not nearly enough to overtake them in MPs, because of constituency skews. Shy Torries will not give hidden bounces, though the Shy Labour voter may poke their head up a bit this cycle. The better and more recent targeted polls are showing a resurgence in Labour support, particularly in public sector employees and urban voters.
Final tallies:
Vote Share:
Conservatives: 35.8%
Lib-Dems: 26.2%
Labour: 27.3%
MPs:
Conservative: 289
Labour: 253
Lib-Dem: 79
DUP: 8
SNP: 8
Others: 13
---
No seats for the UKIP or the BNP, though I guarantee at least 30 minutes of BBC coverage is devoted to having one Lib-Dem, one Conservative, and one Labour representative engaging in hand wringing over the success level of the BNP. It's like an annual right of passage in British election seasons.