a good portion of our spending every year is borrowed. When social security starts paying out more than it takes in, its a safe bet that the money will be borrowed, that is deficit spending. Which is paid for by loans (bonds/securities), and the interest on those loans are paid by tax dollars, as is the repayment of the bonds/securities... therefore you'll be taxed AGAIN for your social security. Because we aren't setting aside the money we currently take in.
Everyone has agenda/motive, he's clearly established his, I'm not slamming him at all, I've studied him a few times in passing, and I think he's bright, but that article that you seemed to think deflated any threat SS is under, didn't provide for the facts I threw out there.
You and Chomsky saying SS's problems are a myth with no facts to back it up, could also be classified as a 'bloated embellishment'. I guess that'd depend on how you define the word problem. If I pay for a car once, and then when I'm done paying for it I'm asked to pay for it again, that is a problem, and that is where social security is headed. If you and Chomsky don't mind paying twice for something, then you're right there isn't a problem, its a myth.
How do you know we are not setting aside the money from Social Security taxes? Where did you read/see that? Can you give me a link?
I don't know if you read the entire article, but he did provide a few facts:
"The relevant number is what’s called the dependency ratio of working people to population. That ratio reached its lowest point in 1965. It won’t reach that point again until 2080, according to Social Security Administration figures.
Furthermore, any fiscal problem that might arise in caring for the elderly "boomers" has already been paid for, by the payroll tax rise of 1983, designed for this purpose. And by the time the last "boomer" has died, the society will be far richer, with each worker producing far greater wealth."
I do think that there is a significant mythology surrounding Social Security, but I am having a lot of trouble establishing what the "real" numbers are. I have read statistics ranging from "Batten down the hatches!" to "Pop the champagne corks!" It's very tough to say.
I have a lot of questions about it. And there don't seem to be any answers. All projections seem to carry a bias. Every article I read, every "expert" opinion. Biased, biased, biased.
I wish I could find raw data from an objective source. Do you know of a web site that could provide that for me?
The GAO is a good place to start. Even the back of your taxes tells you all you need to know about how we spend our tax dollars.
http://www.warresisters.org/piechart.htm this is a good break down. Like they mention, you never see this pie chart anymore, because since the 60's the federal government COMBINED all their spending. The SS funds DO NOT get set aside, they get spent every year. So instead of all the boomers building up a huge surplus they could later draw off of when they retire and there are less workers to support them... we friviously spend it every year.
Anyway, I'm not trying to insult your hero, just saying being brilliant doesn't make him right.
I missed a part of what you said about his facts... That they did not specifically provide for the scenario you are talking about. You are right about that. I'm sorry I requoted the article to show something you were not challenging.
But in that scenario... Uh, wouldn't it just make more sense to balance the budget and stop spending obscene amounts of money on shit that doesn't matter so that SS would not run at a deficit? I think that is covered by Chomsky's, "Anything that comes is just a matter of one or another kind of adjustment."
My new questions are...
What year will it start running at a deficit? At that time, will we start utilizing all the payroll taxes collected to pay for it? How much excess is being generated now? How much are we diverting to other sources besides Social Security? And why?
I'm going to post some info...and I know it doesn't mean much of anything because you can still argue that it came from the government and about the bias of where it came from...but these are from my most recent social security statement:
In 14 years we will begin paying more in benefits than we collect in taxes. By then, the # of Americans 65 and older will have doubled. At that point, there will only be enough money to pay out 73 cents for each dollar of scheduled benefits. Without changes, the Social Security Trust Fund will be exhausted by 2042.
These estimates were produced by actuaries at the Social Security Administration based on intermediate assumptions from the Social Security Trustees' Annual Report to Congress.
Ok...so maybe those numbers don't even mean anything, but these people are sending me this statement with estimates of what I'm supposed to get, and telling me that I may not even get that because money is running out. If nothing else, I'd say there's a definate problem. How big? I dunno. But I'm sure as hell not counting on SS to get me through retirement.
No that's the line of thinking I agree with, except they label it 'trust fund'... there is no fund at all... and that too is a very large problem. We (the SSA) basically lives paycheck to paycheck, and once there are too many retirees and not enough workers, then instead of contributing to the general budget every year, FICA will be overwhelmed and the general budget will start paying into SS.
Yeah absolutely, I think we should only do deficit spending in the WORST of times. In my personal finances, I never EVER carry any debt, under any circumstance--maybe for a home purchase I'd consider it. I've been in debt a handful of weeks in my life. I think this administration's spending, and most of spending in general is a total joke. We should elect responsible politicians that don't want to flush the country down the toilet.
I wouldn't call cutting TONS of programs, or doubling taxes 'an adjustment'. I don't think its time to abandon ship, but we definitely need to act sooner rather than later.
anyway, you can find all that out for yourself, I'm not doing your homework :) The GAO does all of this for you, and if you want to trust the President's office you can look at the OMB, but I wouldn't.
Everyone has agenda/motive, he's clearly established his, I'm not slamming him at all, I've studied him a few times in passing, and I think he's bright, but that article that you seemed to think deflated any threat SS is under, didn't provide for the facts I threw out there.
You and Chomsky saying SS's problems are a myth with no facts to back it up, could also be classified as a 'bloated embellishment'. I guess that'd depend on how you define the word problem. If I pay for a car once, and then when I'm done paying for it I'm asked to pay for it again, that is a problem, and that is where social security is headed. If you and Chomsky don't mind paying twice for something, then you're right there isn't a problem, its a myth.
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I don't know if you read the entire article, but he did provide a few facts:
"The relevant number is what’s called the dependency ratio of working people to population. That ratio reached its lowest point in 1965. It won’t reach that point again until 2080, according to Social Security Administration figures.
Furthermore, any fiscal problem that might arise in caring for the elderly "boomers" has already been paid for, by the payroll tax rise of 1983, designed for this purpose. And by the time the last "boomer" has died, the society will be far richer, with each worker producing far greater wealth."
I do think that there is a significant mythology surrounding Social Security, but I am having a lot of trouble establishing what the "real" numbers are. I have read statistics ranging from "Batten down the hatches!" to "Pop the champagne corks!" It's very tough to say.
I have a lot of questions about it. And there don't seem to be any answers. All projections seem to carry a bias. Every article I read, every "expert" opinion. Biased, biased, biased.
I wish I could find raw data from an objective source. Do you know of a web site that could provide that for me?
Reply
http://www.warresisters.org/piechart.htm this is a good break down. Like they mention, you never see this pie chart anymore, because since the 60's the federal government COMBINED all their spending. The SS funds DO NOT get set aside, they get spent every year. So instead of all the boomers building up a huge surplus they could later draw off of when they retire and there are less workers to support them... we friviously spend it every year.
Anyway, I'm not trying to insult your hero, just saying being brilliant doesn't make him right.
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But in that scenario... Uh, wouldn't it just make more sense to balance the budget and stop spending obscene amounts of money on shit that doesn't matter so that SS would not run at a deficit? I think that is covered by Chomsky's, "Anything that comes is just a matter of one or another kind of adjustment."
My new questions are...
What year will it start running at a deficit? At that time, will we start utilizing all the payroll taxes collected to pay for it? How much excess is being generated now? How much are we diverting to other sources besides Social Security? And why?
Reply
In 14 years we will begin paying more in benefits than we collect in taxes.
By then, the # of Americans 65 and older will have doubled.
At that point, there will only be enough money to pay out 73 cents for each dollar of scheduled benefits.
Without changes, the Social Security Trust Fund will be exhausted by 2042.
These estimates were produced by actuaries at the Social Security Administration based on intermediate assumptions from the Social Security Trustees' Annual Report to Congress.
Ok...so maybe those numbers don't even mean anything, but these people are sending me this statement with estimates of what I'm supposed to get, and telling me that I may not even get that because money is running out. If nothing else, I'd say there's a definate problem. How big? I dunno. But I'm sure as hell not counting on SS to get me through retirement.
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I wouldn't call cutting TONS of programs, or doubling taxes 'an adjustment'. I don't think its time to abandon ship, but we definitely need to act sooner rather than later.
http://www.gao.gov/special.pubs/longterm/simulations.html This is a good one that shows how shitty the tax cuts are, and how irresponsible our spending is.
anyway, you can find all that out for yourself, I'm not doing your homework :) The GAO does all of this for you, and if you want to trust the President's office you can look at the OMB, but I wouldn't.
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