I started to write this as a reply to
quinquin's
post, but realized that I probably had enough to say to make my own.
On the subject of Chie becoming Hoshigumi's next top star.
We've compared Chie to other nibante, and to other members of her class, and to other past tops. But the reason I've always thought "she's too young" is because of the other *current* tops.
The "youngest" current top stars (Tani and Yuu, 1995) are four school years senior to Chie (1999). Mizu debuted in 1993, Asako in 1992, Touko in 1991. Going backwards from there, I can think of at least one otokoyaku top star from each hatsubutai year until I get to where I no longer have top stars' names and debut years memorized.
But 1994 has been skipped, and I see people from that class (i.e. Yumiko and Kiriyan) as being "next in line" -- or rather, they ought to be next in line.
Yumiko and Kiriyan... and Yuuhi. They deserve it. Because they're senior. Because they've come so far and experienced so much and they're ready. And sure, maybe Chie's ready too, but others have been ready longer, and I think what Chie deserves is to be *nibante* longer and get all those interesting and varied nibante roles.
The longer we wait the more ideas seem to be thrown around, and suddenly I'm hearing people say "Ranju Tomu". Naturally I've been ruling out Sorasiennes for almost all things under the completely biased assumption that "Soragumi is perfect right now" and needs not to be touched or tampered with in any way. Well, that's my automatic response, and then when pressed further I'll concede that it's naive to think my troupe won't be affected in some way. They all will, I'm sure of that.
Anyway, if we're skipping '94 and looking at '96 for eligible otokoyaku then clearly Tomu is first in line...
I just, you know, don't like to consider the possibility because she'd be leaving my troupe. :( Off to Hoshigumi to take Touko's place as my favorite top star, sure, but still. :(
My projection is still Kiriyan to Hoshigumi and Yuuhi back to Tsukigumi, but I'm not claiming much rationale other than "she looks like she'd fit in" or "that's where I want her to be". Although honestly, after how much I've liked Yuu and Yuuhi together in the past two Grand Theater shows, I almost *don't* want her to move back.
People have also been saying "Asako will retire or move to Senka". I see logic in this, not because Tom looks like she wants to step down, but rather because Asako seems to prefer otokoyaku-ing over all. On the other hand, if we drew a parallel between "Kazu Ryouka appears unhappy and cold to her fans --> Kazu retires" and "Sena Jun appears unhappy and cold to her fans"...
*shrug* Who knows. I just want to see Tsukigumi really shaken up. The Moon Troupe Jenga tower lost Yuuhi and Mihoko (and Taki-san and Nene and Remi) -- sliding in Shizuku hardly gave them new support -- will they get shiny new pieces or do they have to crumble before they get completely rebuilt?
(Fresh off the keys and I already hate my metaphor, ugh. But while I'm on the subject, I'll get this out now in case I forget later -- as to the question of "Most confusing action by Hankyuu in 2008"? The promotion of Hazakura Shizuku. I'm sorry, I see nothing in her; even setting aside my hopes and dreams riding on Alice-chan, it makes me burn to see so many talented musumeyaku losing out to that girl.)
...I think I'm almost done. Despite "dinner show" being one of our indicators, I see Kimu's transfer as more likely than Yumiko's. (Did I ever make that joke about Kimu moving to Tsukigumi to be Elisabeth? No? I think I only said it to Manda or Hanna. Obviously it's not happening, though; Kimu's already been announced for Zorro and Elisabeth is the next GT show immediately after it. On the same note, my secret [??] hope for Nacchan!Elisabeth has also been crushed.) Kimu could be somebody's new nibante, and Yukigumi could afford to lose her. Or maybe Kaname. I don't buy "But they have to keep Aqua5 together!"; it's not a convincing argument to me.
Speaking of Kaname? Her and Makkun on the cover of Graph? Suddenly started putting in my head the idea of Makkun being transferred. Where, I don't know.
I'm not as good at guessing as to the paths of younger stars, I just carry the firm belief that all troupes will be affected by the transfers.
And there will BE transfers, right, Hankyuu? You wouldn't keep all of us fangirls waiting for nothing.
*only a little excited about what news the 4th may bring*