People just don't get it.... Yet
Hello All!
This is, quite possibly, the greatest financial disaster in history. It's too early to call, but this crisis could end up being to the Great Depression what WWII was to 'the Great War'.
Though, that's where the war rhetoric should end... As Hugh White points out - http://epress.anu.edu.au/anzsog/public_leadership/pdf/ch13.pdf ... it only leads to bad decisions.
Just to put this in some kind of perspective...
In the last quarter... ALL... G7 economies (USA, China, Japan, UK, etc) recorded their largest drop in growth...
... In their history.
As for Japan, either our first or second largest trading partner, its manufacturing output is now at the same level it was in...
1985.
The United States saw its jobless numbers surge, in the month of January alone, by 600,000 people. The overwhelming number of whom, had never sought unemployment benefits before.
Access Economics has recast Australia's growth forecast to June this year from 1.8 percent, down to 0.25 percent. In urban areas, growth is estimated at a flat 0...and...
That's already factoring in the governments $44 Billion stimulus package, which hasn't yet been approved.
Australia, at the moment anyhow, has by far and away the best balance sheet of any developed economy...We have a stable financial sector, we had a strong budget surplus, and, unlike the US and Britain, we can still free up monetary policy by lowering interest rates.
But..even with all that, a growth rate of a fraction of 1% is dismal, and just imagine what its like for countries like the US?!
After this second US stimulus package, the US account deficit will be at 15% of their GDP...
15%!!! For the largest economy on the planet!..an economy about twice as large as its nearest competitor... I mean who's going to buy all those Treasury bonds? How is the US going to service that kind of debt (without a major war)? What will happen, in the all too likely off chance, that the US government, God forbid, defaults? When the US dollar becomes completely worthless?
I tell you, this decade and millenium started so positively, with the Greatest Olympics Ever (and I'm not just saying that as an Australian). But what would define it started with September 11, and is ending in a financial abyss.
Even traditionally credit nations, such as Russia and the Gulf States are finding their GDP's collapsing under the weight of precipitace falls in the oil price.
There just isn't any good news anywhere.
What this means is...unemployment on an unprecedented scale, millions upon millions of people who are ageing along with their populations are going to lose their life savings. All forms of civil unrest will dramatically increased. And in instances where the governments' legitimacy depends on economic growth (particularly China and Russia) then this downturn could great massive domestic instability.
The GFC has already brought down the Icelandic government. To be replaced by the FIRST EVER openly Gay PM...Worldwide.
Perhaps there is some good news for some then. Although given the meltdown that is Iceland at the moment, her Prime Ministership is all but guarenteed not to be a happy one.
Thankyou for reading my Journal.
This is, quite possibly, the greatest financial disaster in history. It's too early to call, but this crisis could end up being to the Great Depression what WWII was to 'the Great War'.
Though, that's where the war rhetoric should end... As Hugh White points out - http://epress.anu.edu.au/anzsog/public_leadership/pdf/ch13.pdf ... it only leads to bad decisions.
Just to put this in some kind of perspective...
In the last quarter... ALL... G7 economies (USA, China, Japan, UK, etc) recorded their largest drop in growth...
... In their history.
As for Japan, either our first or second largest trading partner, its manufacturing output is now at the same level it was in...
1985.
The United States saw its jobless numbers surge, in the month of January alone, by 600,000 people. The overwhelming number of whom, had never sought unemployment benefits before.
Access Economics has recast Australia's growth forecast to June this year from 1.8 percent, down to 0.25 percent. In urban areas, growth is estimated at a flat 0...and...
That's already factoring in the governments $44 Billion stimulus package, which hasn't yet been approved.
Australia, at the moment anyhow, has by far and away the best balance sheet of any developed economy...We have a stable financial sector, we had a strong budget surplus, and, unlike the US and Britain, we can still free up monetary policy by lowering interest rates.
But..even with all that, a growth rate of a fraction of 1% is dismal, and just imagine what its like for countries like the US?!
After this second US stimulus package, the US account deficit will be at 15% of their GDP...
15%!!! For the largest economy on the planet!..an economy about twice as large as its nearest competitor... I mean who's going to buy all those Treasury bonds? How is the US going to service that kind of debt (without a major war)? What will happen, in the all too likely off chance, that the US government, God forbid, defaults? When the US dollar becomes completely worthless?
I tell you, this decade and millenium started so positively, with the Greatest Olympics Ever (and I'm not just saying that as an Australian). But what would define it started with September 11, and is ending in a financial abyss.
Even traditionally credit nations, such as Russia and the Gulf States are finding their GDP's collapsing under the weight of precipitace falls in the oil price.
There just isn't any good news anywhere.
What this means is...unemployment on an unprecedented scale, millions upon millions of people who are ageing along with their populations are going to lose their life savings. All forms of civil unrest will dramatically increased. And in instances where the governments' legitimacy depends on economic growth (particularly China and Russia) then this downturn could great massive domestic instability.
The GFC has already brought down the Icelandic government. To be replaced by the FIRST EVER openly Gay PM...Worldwide.
Perhaps there is some good news for some then. Although given the meltdown that is Iceland at the moment, her Prime Ministership is all but guarenteed not to be a happy one.
Thankyou for reading my Journal.