Back to the Future?
It began with this poll about whether we are living in the future sci-fi predicted for us.
My lengthy response was, "If this is the future, I'm in the wrong damn timeline. I signed up for the future where wonder drugs are still wonderful, cancer is of no more concern than a cold sore, aging has been 'solved', so that we can remain in prime health for most of our century-plus lives (declining over the last few months, but without pain or dementia), and chronic conditions are quickly fixable. I'm supposed to be in the timeline where abilities and preferences are taken into account and we're educated and trained accordingly---I am not supposed to be answering phones for minimum wage for a living!---and there's such a thing as corporate loyalty, where you can work for the same company for fifty years and they're grateful to you. I'm supposed to live in the automatic house, where laundry happens invisibly behind the scenes, my bed makes itself when I get out of it in the morning, I can shower without waiting three minutes for the hot water to get to the far end of the house, I don't have to worry about mildew on the tiles (and I certainly never have to touch a toilet brush), and when I get to the kitchen, a perfect omelet is just being plated by the auto-cooker. I can work from home with state-of-the-art technology, or, if I *must* commute, I can teleport, or there's a reliable fuel-efficient vehicle at my disposal. If I happen to have a stressful day, my replicant consort is there to console me when I get home. I took a wrong turn somewhere along the the Space/Time Continuum! How do I get back to MY future?!" Somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but the subject is sticking with me.
In some respects, I think we thought too small---or maybe I should say, not small enough, when you consider that today's average cell phone is about a third the size of a Star TrekTOS communicator. Or that the computers that got us to the moon are dumber than the calculator the average tenth-grader carries to math class. I remember taking computer classes back around 1980, where the first thing they talked about were bits and bytes and our programming assignments consisted of stacks of punchcards, which I never could get to work properly. I remember TRS80 computers, plugged into an old TV with a cassette player as the memory drive. I remember floppy disks giving way to diskettes. I remember when a Commodore 64 was the height of technology, being excited to get a 14400k modem and a couple years later, having Megs of memory, which was a Big Thing. Gigs? Srsly? Now that's old news and we're talking terabytes. Or have I fallen behind and it's something bigger now?
In light of the predicted smart homes, robot butlers and jet-packs it's tempting to say that the technology has failed us. We don't have flying cars, we're not vacationing on Mars, or even the moon. Our society has more problems, not fewer, than we did forty years ago. Unfortunately, it's true that those who don't learn from the past are condemned to repeat it. Today it's the Middle East, forty years ago, it was Southeast Asia. Rising gas prices and a move to dump gas-hog vehicles? 1973, folks.
Technology hasn't failed us, we've failed technology, because we've been too busy bickering among ourselves about our own petty agendas. We may have mandated equality in education and employment, but not in healthcare. A wealthy hypochondric can have test after test run to soothe their fears, whereas a genuinely sick person of low income will go to great lengths to avoid expensive medical treatment, perhaps to the point that it's too late to cure them. We didn't have diagnositc MRIs 40 years ago, but if 6 out of 10 people can't afford to access them, is that really progress?
The 70s saw the first proponants of alternate energy sources trying to catch the attention of the masses---I remember a book I checked out from the library numerous times about building energy efficient homes (this was when I was dreaming of a career in architecture), advocating solar panels, wind turbines, geothermal energy. These things were possible, if somewhat costly then. They're still somewhat costly because we haven't troubled ourselves to make the technology more affordable---but the question we should ask ourselves now is, can we afford NOT to?!
We have a lot of nifty technological bells and whistles these days. While we're playing with all these funky new toys, though, let's not get so distracted that we lose sight of the global picture. Microwave dinners won't cure world hunger, a Wii won't save your ass in a war zone (and if I'm wrong, please explain this one to me), and for that matter, cancer, AIDS and H1N1 aren't going to be impressed by your paper-thin computer, your Smartphone or your iPod. People are still killing each other over religious differences, and we don't have an app for that.
The future? Today is the tomorrow we were worried about yesterday.
=======================================
Speaking of tomorrow...edited 1/8/10 to add (because it must be zeigeist):
An article from Slate about the future as predicted by Omni magazine
and a vid from YouTube about Fiskars luxury hybrid, the Karma (which ain't cheap, but it sure is sweet).
.
My lengthy response was, "If this is the future, I'm in the wrong damn timeline. I signed up for the future where wonder drugs are still wonderful, cancer is of no more concern than a cold sore, aging has been 'solved', so that we can remain in prime health for most of our century-plus lives (declining over the last few months, but without pain or dementia), and chronic conditions are quickly fixable. I'm supposed to be in the timeline where abilities and preferences are taken into account and we're educated and trained accordingly---I am not supposed to be answering phones for minimum wage for a living!---and there's such a thing as corporate loyalty, where you can work for the same company for fifty years and they're grateful to you. I'm supposed to live in the automatic house, where laundry happens invisibly behind the scenes, my bed makes itself when I get out of it in the morning, I can shower without waiting three minutes for the hot water to get to the far end of the house, I don't have to worry about mildew on the tiles (and I certainly never have to touch a toilet brush), and when I get to the kitchen, a perfect omelet is just being plated by the auto-cooker. I can work from home with state-of-the-art technology, or, if I *must* commute, I can teleport, or there's a reliable fuel-efficient vehicle at my disposal. If I happen to have a stressful day, my replicant consort is there to console me when I get home. I took a wrong turn somewhere along the the Space/Time Continuum! How do I get back to MY future?!" Somewhat tongue-in-cheek, but the subject is sticking with me.
In some respects, I think we thought too small---or maybe I should say, not small enough, when you consider that today's average cell phone is about a third the size of a Star TrekTOS communicator. Or that the computers that got us to the moon are dumber than the calculator the average tenth-grader carries to math class. I remember taking computer classes back around 1980, where the first thing they talked about were bits and bytes and our programming assignments consisted of stacks of punchcards, which I never could get to work properly. I remember TRS80 computers, plugged into an old TV with a cassette player as the memory drive. I remember floppy disks giving way to diskettes. I remember when a Commodore 64 was the height of technology, being excited to get a 14400k modem and a couple years later, having Megs of memory, which was a Big Thing. Gigs? Srsly? Now that's old news and we're talking terabytes. Or have I fallen behind and it's something bigger now?
In light of the predicted smart homes, robot butlers and jet-packs it's tempting to say that the technology has failed us. We don't have flying cars, we're not vacationing on Mars, or even the moon. Our society has more problems, not fewer, than we did forty years ago. Unfortunately, it's true that those who don't learn from the past are condemned to repeat it. Today it's the Middle East, forty years ago, it was Southeast Asia. Rising gas prices and a move to dump gas-hog vehicles? 1973, folks.
Technology hasn't failed us, we've failed technology, because we've been too busy bickering among ourselves about our own petty agendas. We may have mandated equality in education and employment, but not in healthcare. A wealthy hypochondric can have test after test run to soothe their fears, whereas a genuinely sick person of low income will go to great lengths to avoid expensive medical treatment, perhaps to the point that it's too late to cure them. We didn't have diagnositc MRIs 40 years ago, but if 6 out of 10 people can't afford to access them, is that really progress?
The 70s saw the first proponants of alternate energy sources trying to catch the attention of the masses---I remember a book I checked out from the library numerous times about building energy efficient homes (this was when I was dreaming of a career in architecture), advocating solar panels, wind turbines, geothermal energy. These things were possible, if somewhat costly then. They're still somewhat costly because we haven't troubled ourselves to make the technology more affordable---but the question we should ask ourselves now is, can we afford NOT to?!
We have a lot of nifty technological bells and whistles these days. While we're playing with all these funky new toys, though, let's not get so distracted that we lose sight of the global picture. Microwave dinners won't cure world hunger, a Wii won't save your ass in a war zone (and if I'm wrong, please explain this one to me), and for that matter, cancer, AIDS and H1N1 aren't going to be impressed by your paper-thin computer, your Smartphone or your iPod. People are still killing each other over religious differences, and we don't have an app for that.
The future? Today is the tomorrow we were worried about yesterday.
=======================================
Speaking of tomorrow...edited 1/8/10 to add (because it must be zeigeist):
An article from Slate about the future as predicted by Omni magazine
and a vid from YouTube about Fiskars luxury hybrid, the Karma (which ain't cheap, but it sure is sweet).
.