Tropical Storm Paul
The El Niño Choo Choo keeps chugging along, helping to inspire one tropical cyclone after another in the Eastern Pacific, well past the time of the year typically associated with the beginning of the end of that basin's season. Meanwhile, back at the Atlantic, any flame of tropical cyclone activity that tries to get going continues to be very efficiently snuffed out. In fact, according to this article in Reuters, Max Mayfield suggests that El Niño has in fact been hampering the activity in the Atlantic basin pretty-much all season long.
Of course, this also brings up larger questions, and sometimes complaints, from a public that was bracing itself for a much-advertised repeat of 2004, or 2005. While any level-headed third grader can tell you that while forecasts of 2006 being another 2005 were never-ever made by any respected tropical cyclone forecaster or forecasting agency, calls for another "very active", or even "hyper-active" season, were plentiful, and from numerous quarters, including the National Hurricane Center, and the Colorado State team famous for their annual forecasts, which include numerous inter-season adjustments, as warranted.
So it really comes as no surprise that articles such as this one in the Washington Post do not seem to have much good to say about long-range hurricane forecasting, other than of course all are relieved that 2006 was not even in the same ball park as the 2005 season, which will probably - hopefully - go down as the World Series of Atlantic hurricane seasons for years to come.
Some highlights of that Washington Post article below:
"South Spent Millions on a Hurricane Season That Wasn't
By Peter Whoriskey
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, October 19, 2006; Page A11
MIAMI -- Anticipation of the 2006 hurricane season turned countless families here and in a vast swath of the Southeast into survivalists.
Households stockpiled ready-to-eat meals. They scarfed up emergency radios, propane stoves, satellite phones, shutters, candles, canned goods. Hordes plunked down $500 and up for home generators."
How about you? Are you relieved that the 2006 Hurricane Season was so tame? Was a part of you still yearning to experience a big one, and maybe a little bit let down? Were you surprised that '06 seems to have been a 'dud', especially in light of all the professional forecasts calling for another very active year - and also in light of the past two years?