Wild speculation follows.klayzenApril 13 2005, 16:32:06 UTC
I'm not much of a player in the economy right now. I buy almost nothing. I rarely eat things individually packaged in plastic (if i do, it's usually at work, which is frustrating, but hey). The face of basic goods isn't going to change as much as all that -- plastic will probably give way to cardboard, with the requisite 10c price increase. I think the issue is the truck-based transportation system that gets them there. That'll be goin out the window
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Re: Wild speculation follows.topazApril 13 2005, 16:38:59 UTC
*nod* i agree that it won't be overnight; i think that's why he calls it "the long emergency."
also agreed on the plastics thing, but even more than that - oil products are in everything. i mean, they're even in fertilizers - there goes a lot of the productivity of agriculture. i think at least one of the articles mentioned that.
i think the walmart thing is feasible, if only because of how heavily they rely on trucking and etc. i'm not sure where they'd get the supplies, or even be able to adequately oversee their franchises, if transportation goes so far downhill.
I went to a Kunstler lecture when he visited BC -- he's really unimpressive in person -- sweaty, balding, and unrefined -- but he's not really wrong, anyway.
"Fall of suburbia" seems to me more like increasing urbanization, until the gas supply hits a late-70's-style shortage and actually makes it IMPOSSIBLE for many people to drive. Price increases will probably never really disable the auto market.
The thing about most of these articles is that they assume that, say, industrial fertilization will be impossible -- but that's only if present usage continues at its existing rate. That's not going to happen in the event of a shortage; obviously construction, agriculture, etc. are going to take priority over Land Rovers.
Still pretty freaky -- good that Rolling Stone is getting awareness up.
it would still eventually be a problem anyway, though, no? even if agriculture > land rovers, eventually it won't matter because it just won't be there anymore. verdad?
Well, maybe. But one of the big problems with agriculture in the U.S. is -- guess what? -- suburbanization. The town I grew up in was originally nothing but farmland. Now there's one cornfield there. If the suburbs do dry up and wilt, and the population goes back to the city, farmland could be reclaimed.
But, scarily, in the end, it might come down to weird draconian shit like controls on population growth.
It feels regressive to argue a return to the system of urban/rural places only, but to me the suburban model of settlement has really proven its complete lack of value, both socially and geographically.
really, do you think? just as far as the US is concerned, we're doing pretty well on population growth - yeah, our overall population is increasing, but that's immigration. generally, women who have a choice (birth control and, more importantly, education) choose on their own not to have that many kids. look at italy, look at switzerland, look at germany, etc etc for examples of places that are actually decreasing their native populations.
agreed, as far as suburbia. the problem, i imagine, is finding enough people who would choose rural over urban. though maybe i'm projecting.
What really bugs me about this whole situations is that no one does anything about it. Yes, we can't just spontanesouly create more oil (well, yeah there is synthetic oil, but you need a power source to make that and I don't think you could really make it in the quantities we'd need, but I don't know all that much about it) but legislation could be implemented to try to lower petroleum use so that what's left will last longer. But instead of putting miles per gallon regulatoins on SUVs (if you buy one for your business, you actually get a tax break for it XD ) or putting more money into improving and expanding mass transportation congress just sort of sits around. There is some money put towards research of alternate fuels like hydrogen, but as the article said you need oil to make hydrogen cells, so really it isn't fixing the problem at all
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As tonight wears on, I find myself wishing more and more that it will come quickly. Not because I want to see the world destroyed, or the economy shot to hell, or America torn from the top and anarchy put into place, but because I wish that it would allow people to see through the dust and the promises that this society is built upon
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also agreed on the plastics thing, but even more than that - oil products are in everything. i mean, they're even in fertilizers - there goes a lot of the productivity of agriculture. i think at least one of the articles mentioned that.
i think the walmart thing is feasible, if only because of how heavily they rely on trucking and etc. i'm not sure where they'd get the supplies, or even be able to adequately oversee their franchises, if transportation goes so far downhill.
Reply
"Fall of suburbia" seems to me more like increasing urbanization, until the gas supply hits a late-70's-style shortage and actually makes it IMPOSSIBLE for many people to drive. Price increases will probably never really disable the auto market.
The thing about most of these articles is that they assume that, say, industrial fertilization will be impossible -- but that's only if present usage continues at its existing rate. That's not going to happen in the event of a shortage; obviously construction, agriculture, etc. are going to take priority over Land Rovers.
Still pretty freaky -- good that Rolling Stone is getting awareness up.
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But, scarily, in the end, it might come down to weird draconian shit like controls on population growth.
It feels regressive to argue a return to the system of urban/rural places only, but to me the suburban model of settlement has really proven its complete lack of value, both socially and geographically.
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agreed, as far as suburbia. the problem, i imagine, is finding enough people who would choose rural over urban. though maybe i'm projecting.
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