Wild speculation follows.klayzenApril 13 2005, 16:32:06 UTC
I'm not much of a player in the economy right now. I buy almost nothing. I rarely eat things individually packaged in plastic (if i do, it's usually at work, which is frustrating, but hey). The face of basic goods isn't going to change as much as all that -- plastic will probably give way to cardboard, with the requisite 10c price increase. I think the issue is the truck-based transportation system that gets them there. That'll be goin out the window.
I'm aware this is all speculation because i'm by no means an expert, but i can't see any absurd predictions here. The article makes it sound like as soon as we hit 50%, the remaining oil becomes low grade & impossible to get at instantaneously, and that's not quite right. Most likely, the last dregs will be like that, but it's not like it's going to suddenly disappear and we're all going to turn into farmers overnight.
It seems reasonable to foresee that as long as the price of gas creeps up slowly, the economy will naturally adjust around it. At $10 a gallon, it won't be reasonable for people in West VA to commute 3 hours each way to Washington DC. So as long as gas prices continue to move up over the course of years, building and infrastructure can adapt around it. The raising price of food makes a lot of sense, and i think the increase of local food production is a good bet, but i don't think the entire middle class is going to instantly turn into farmers. If it's $50 a gallon, is that enough to start hiring your neighbors instead of running a tractor? I don't know.
Almost the whole of the article focused on oil as the energy source for our transportation, and while that's a good point, i think the increase of the prices of plastics will be the chief problem that will change the look of many products & goods. Ceramics are a nice idea, but ceramics require high heat for firing, and where's that going to come from?
the forecasted "Fall of suburbia" seems a little drastic, but believable on a long-term scale. The large social disturbances predicted seem to be a problem if oil prices explode more quickly than the economy can adapt. The forecasted "fall of the corporation" seems like wishful thinking. More likely, large corporations will adapt by being as ubiquitous as McDonalds: rather than 1 walmart per town, it could be 10 mini-walmarts within walking distance.
Re: Wild speculation follows.topazApril 13 2005, 16:38:59 UTC
*nod* i agree that it won't be overnight; i think that's why he calls it "the long emergency."
also agreed on the plastics thing, but even more than that - oil products are in everything. i mean, they're even in fertilizers - there goes a lot of the productivity of agriculture. i think at least one of the articles mentioned that.
i think the walmart thing is feasible, if only because of how heavily they rely on trucking and etc. i'm not sure where they'd get the supplies, or even be able to adequately oversee their franchises, if transportation goes so far downhill.
I'm aware this is all speculation because i'm by no means an expert, but i can't see any absurd predictions here. The article makes it sound like as soon as we hit 50%, the remaining oil becomes low grade & impossible to get at instantaneously, and that's not quite right. Most likely, the last dregs will be like that, but it's not like it's going to suddenly disappear and we're all going to turn into farmers overnight.
It seems reasonable to foresee that as long as the price of gas creeps up slowly, the economy will naturally adjust around it. At $10 a gallon, it won't be reasonable for people in West VA to commute 3 hours each way to Washington DC. So as long as gas prices continue to move up over the course of years, building and infrastructure can adapt around it. The raising price of food makes a lot of sense, and i think the increase of local food production is a good bet, but i don't think the entire middle class is going to instantly turn into farmers. If it's $50 a gallon, is that enough to start hiring your neighbors instead of running a tractor? I don't know.
Almost the whole of the article focused on oil as the energy source for our transportation, and while that's a good point, i think the increase of the prices of plastics will be the chief problem that will change the look of many products & goods. Ceramics are a nice idea, but ceramics require high heat for firing, and where's that going to come from?
the forecasted "Fall of suburbia" seems a little drastic, but believable on a long-term scale. The large social disturbances predicted seem to be a problem if oil prices explode more quickly than the economy can adapt. The forecasted "fall of the corporation" seems like wishful thinking. More likely, large corporations will adapt by being as ubiquitous as McDonalds: rather than 1 walmart per town, it could be 10 mini-walmarts within walking distance.
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also agreed on the plastics thing, but even more than that - oil products are in everything. i mean, they're even in fertilizers - there goes a lot of the productivity of agriculture. i think at least one of the articles mentioned that.
i think the walmart thing is feasible, if only because of how heavily they rely on trucking and etc. i'm not sure where they'd get the supplies, or even be able to adequately oversee their franchises, if transportation goes so far downhill.
Reply
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