The Walking Dead Survivor Scale (Who's most likely to get out alive)
With the mid-season finale looming and the show heading toward an epic showdown between camps, I think it’s time to post our predictions on how likely our survivors are to get out of this (and future) situations alive. Now I’ve never read the comic and am not planning to until the show ends, so this is completely show-based (and please keep any comments the same way. This is a comic-spoiler... and for that matter, an any-kind-of-spoiler free zone!)
I’m posting my thoughts on who out of our thirteen current survivors are most likely to make it in the long term, from least to greatest likelihood. This isn’t a list of the order in which I think they’ll go down, but of their likelihood to survive in general, based on both character skills and plot-significance.
13) Axel
There’s not that much to say about the guy at this point. Undeveloped. Minimal screentime. Walker bait.
12) Hershel
Oh, I so want to put this man higher on the list. He proved himself a complete BAMF when Andrew gave the Walkers free reign of the prison, and he has brilliantly taken over the role as “voice of reason” from Dale, balancing it with a bit more rationale and a little less blind moralizing that has made him a complete pleasure to watch. But the simple fact remains that the man lacks a foot. He can’t survive on the run, can’t hold a gun and move at the same time, and there’s only so long that he can fend an enemy off with the edge of a crutch… especially now that it looks like some Woodbury folks are on the way to the prison for a showdown.
11) Beth
One of the most underused characters, to the point that occasionally when I see her I have a moment of “wait, who’s the new blonde… oh, right.” She has potential. She’s been through a lot, and proven her drive-to-survive after getting through her comatose-suicidal-depression last year. She’s also the only character even approximating Carl’s age, which could be nice to play off of. But overall, Beth is a background character, and could pretty easily be killed off for a bit of Maggie/Carl angst.
10) Andrea
The object of quite a bit of fan-hate due to… I don’t know, her unfortunate habit of getting laid by secret psychos? Andrea has been separated from the group for some time, and they’ve got a system that works fine enough without her. Last year, she was the token tough girl but with Maggie on the rise and Michonne in the mix, that’s no longer a void that needs to be filled.
In-show, there seems to be some bitterness (though not quite to a Merle-level) over having been left behind at the end of season two. This, combined with her Team Shane sentiments during their stay at the farm sets her up as a potential loose cannon if she ever did make it back to the group (which is a storyline that’s already been covered). Right now, Andrea is firmly pro-Governor, but what will happen if she finds out what he’s really like? I can easily see her choosing to redeem herself and defend the group, followed by a shot of the Gov coolly killing her to establish anew how psychotic he is. I can also see her choosing to stay with Woodbury, leading to a showdown with Michonne or Rick. Either way, her fate doesn’t look good.
9) Oscar
Often dubbed as the replacement T-Dog (or “New-Dog”), Oscar in his short time has already probably been given more attention than his predecessor ever had. He still has a ways to go before really being a “part of the group” in my eyes, but his willingness to kill Andrew as well as the odd, cute quirk (slippers!) has established him as a definite someone-who-could-be-somebody. …On the other hand, he is the least important character to be a part of the Invasion on Woodbury, so if they need a token group death, Oscar might prove to be a short-lived treat.
8) Carol
She isn’t your typical zombie-survivor, suffering from a wispy frame, less than ideal gun-work, and a history of emotional abuse, but this season has shown Carol’s will to survive as well as a noted improvement in her battle-prowess. We were just subjected to two weeks of wondering if she was even still alive, so killing her off too soon would be an outright cruelty.
Yet Carol was an abused wife and mother, and has always known how to take a punch to protect her loved ones. If push comes to shove, her first instinct will be to protect those she cares for in whatever way she can, even if it means taking the brunt of an attack, herself. I can absolutely see Carol’s character arc coming to an end as she throws herself in harm’s way to keep another survivor from danger, paying forward the sacrifice T-Dog made for her.
7) Judith
I am 100% torn over the fate of this baby. On one hand, she is the hope for the future. A major character died to bring her into this world. On the other, a baby is a serious liability in a survivor show. It’ll be at least five years before little Ass-kicker will be able to contribute anything to the plot besides needing protection. And the show isn’t usually too shy about eliminating the Spark of Hope (RIP Sophia). Would killing off an infant just be too cruel? Would the group (would Rick) survive that kind of a loss? She’s honestly a coin-flip for me right now.
5/6) Glenn & Maggie
These two make up the single, solid relationship on the show, and if you need any proof about their ability to survive in a crisis, just take a glance at their scenes in this week’s “When the Dead Come Knocking”. Glenn’s ability to keep quiet and stay out of sight, as well as knowing how to use whatever he finds in the landscape around him to his advantage will tend to keep him out of danger and keep him alive in a crisis. Maggie clearly spent her winter leveling up as a warrior, moving from basically a non-fighter to the front lines in the span of a season break. Their greatest strength and weakness is their love for each other, and if and when they do go out, I see it happening together, back to back against a horde.
4) Daryl
Often hailed by fans and critics alike as the most well-developed character in the show, I imagine Daryl will be safe for some time due (if nothing else) to the sheer army of Dixon fans that will trample the studio if they ever do anything to hurt him. We’ve learned from T-Dog’s sad demise, though, that fan-support isn’t everything, and honestly I can see his appeal hurting him eventually: if the writers ever decide the viewers are getting too comfortable and want to remind us that no one is safe, the indomitable hunter-with-a-heart-of-gold might start to look like a tempting sacrifice. But his character arc is too compelling for the time being, and I can’t see the show being willing to alienate that many fans for shock value alone.
In-show, Daryl is an undeniable survivor, as evidenced by “Chupacabra” if nothing else. He can take a punch, hell, take an arrow through his side and still come out of it fighting. He’s the main provider for the gang, his tracking and hunting skills keeping them fed when supplies run low, and he is always on guard, often sensing trouble before the rest do. Downside… even though Daryl’s finding his place in the group, he has always seen himself as the least important one among them. The first to volunteer for any rescue attempt or potential suicide mission, Daryl’s main concern is always keeping the others safe. If he thinks throwing himself into the line of fire is the best way to keep the rest alive he’ll do it, no questions asked.
3) Michonne
I’ll say right now that I don’t like her so far. I find her long, silent stares and her determination to keep significant secrets to herself (“Oh, what Michonne? Daryl’s brother happens to be with that group you’re all attacking? Let’s just save that up so he can be shocked and freeze in a critical moment”) to be both incredibly frustrating and a hindrance to plot-momentum. But there was so much hype surrounding her appearance in the show, so I don’t think she’s going anywhere anytime soon. There also seems to be a big “Michonne learns how to trust people” arc coming up and I doubt she’s in danger at least until that’s over.
In-show, she’s got quite a bit going for her too. Like Daryl, Michonne is a born-and-bred survivor. Both could make it in the wild on their own, have winning instincts about both people and potential threats, and can shrug off a serious injury in a crisis. Unlike Daryl, however, Michonne’s number one concern is herself. She will survive, no matter the cost to those around her. Her complete lack of hesitation when it comes to taking a life as well as her willingness to abandon her friend of eight months in what she saw as a death trap prove that to Michonne (at least at this point) what really matters is Michonne. Not the most admirable trait, but one that will certainly help keep her alive. Hopefully as she starts to trust the group more, though, she’ll become a bit less infuriating to watch.
2) Rick
Rick is the show’s protagonist. He’s the one through whose eyes we first glimpsed the world, and for the time being, this is his story. That aside, Rick has also proven himself as a force to be reckoned with. His ability to make a tough call in a crisis has saved his life - and the group’s - on more than one occasion (see bar guys, Shane, taking the prison, Tomas, and so on). He’s both a thinker and a natural leader, guiding his rag-tag group into battle formations that’d make an army general proud. Not to mention his being able to handle “a dozen… two dozen…” Walkers on his own when he went into his Rick Rage in the prison block a few weeks back.
But do I think he’s safe forever? Not necessarily. In 4-5 years (assuming for now that the show lasts that long), or even in the final episode, I could easily see Rick going down and leaving the job to Carl - a “changing of the guard” of sorts. But for now, I’m not too worried about him.
1) Carl
I went back and forth over this placement, but I honestly do believe that above all others, above even Rick, this is ultimately Carl’s story. He is the next generation, the one whose formative years will take place in the post-ZA world. How it shapes him, what he becomes, will be the ultimate testament to whether morality, civility, and humanity as we know it can continue to exist when being brought up in a world of monsters.
If and when Rick goes down (“We’re all gonna die. I’m gonna die...”) it’ll be Carl who takes over and goes to lead on the survivors. Already, he is the de facto leader of the B-team, keeping him off the front lines and out of the most dangerous conflicts while still preparing him for the day when he can take charge. This kid is already a more competent shooter than many of the adults, and has shown his ability to compartmentalize and make tough calls by shooting Lori and, earlier, Shane. And I can only see him getting stronger as time goes on.
The only way I see Carl being written off is if and when Chandler decides to take an acting break for college... so I'm pretty sure he’ll be fine.