All Over Soon
I sent in my ballot this morning, having finally decided with much reluctance to support Initiative 1029. I have deep misgivings about it, but it is endorsed by Governor Gregoire, and her word is usually good enough for me. Indeed, her endorsement was a decisive factor in several down-ballot races.
Other tough calls included my decision to vote against the state superintended of public education, and a hesitant vote for Frank Chopp, speaker of the house, who just happens to be my representative in the state legislature. Chopp tends to rub me the wrong way. It's not an ideological problem; he's quite to the left. I just don't much care for the guy.
In the end, filling out that bubble for Barack Obama and Joe Biden was an afterthought-quite anticlimactic after a year of watching the contest develop. He'll win Washington by a landslide. He should put Gregoire over the top, and he may even accomplish the same for Darcy Burner.
I've counted up all the battleground electoral votes, and have arrived at an absolute best case scenario for Tuesday. The magic number is 426 electoral votes. In my mind that is the absolute upper limit for how many votes Obama may win in his likely national sweep. To get there, we'd have to win absolutely everything in play, including the long-shots of Montana, North Dakota, Louisiana, Arizona (!), Missouri, Georgia, Indiana, Mississippi, and West Virginia, as well as winning all of the likelier states such as Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada.
On the other end of the spectrum, Obama may well fall short in any of the likelier states, except possibly Virginia which I think he has just about locked up. If that happens, Obama will only win 288 votes. If the unthinkable happens and he loses Virginia as well, that goes down to 275, which in my mind represents Obama's worst case scenario.
A much likelier number, I think, is somewhere in the range of 364 to 376, with Obama winning all of the aforementioned “likelier” states plus either of Missouri or Indiana-both worth 11 votes-plus one more state from the long-shot category. That's if turnout is in line with realistic expectations. If we get a bombshell turnout, then Obama will run the table.
In any event, it's likely to be a short night for John McCain: It only takes 270 electoral votes to get to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
On Election Night, my national focus will be on some of the Obama long-shot states; California's ballot measures on gay marriage and parental notification of teen abortions; the Senate races in North Carolina, Georgia, Kentucky, Minnesota, Oregon, and Mississippi; Washington's 8th Congressional District race; and a handful of house races in unlikely places. Here in Washington, in addition to Darcy Burner's race in the 8th, I'll be watching the gubernatorial race and ballot measures regarding transportation and assisted suicide.
Other tough calls included my decision to vote against the state superintended of public education, and a hesitant vote for Frank Chopp, speaker of the house, who just happens to be my representative in the state legislature. Chopp tends to rub me the wrong way. It's not an ideological problem; he's quite to the left. I just don't much care for the guy.
In the end, filling out that bubble for Barack Obama and Joe Biden was an afterthought-quite anticlimactic after a year of watching the contest develop. He'll win Washington by a landslide. He should put Gregoire over the top, and he may even accomplish the same for Darcy Burner.
I've counted up all the battleground electoral votes, and have arrived at an absolute best case scenario for Tuesday. The magic number is 426 electoral votes. In my mind that is the absolute upper limit for how many votes Obama may win in his likely national sweep. To get there, we'd have to win absolutely everything in play, including the long-shots of Montana, North Dakota, Louisiana, Arizona (!), Missouri, Georgia, Indiana, Mississippi, and West Virginia, as well as winning all of the likelier states such as Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada.
On the other end of the spectrum, Obama may well fall short in any of the likelier states, except possibly Virginia which I think he has just about locked up. If that happens, Obama will only win 288 votes. If the unthinkable happens and he loses Virginia as well, that goes down to 275, which in my mind represents Obama's worst case scenario.
A much likelier number, I think, is somewhere in the range of 364 to 376, with Obama winning all of the aforementioned “likelier” states plus either of Missouri or Indiana-both worth 11 votes-plus one more state from the long-shot category. That's if turnout is in line with realistic expectations. If we get a bombshell turnout, then Obama will run the table.
In any event, it's likely to be a short night for John McCain: It only takes 270 electoral votes to get to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
On Election Night, my national focus will be on some of the Obama long-shot states; California's ballot measures on gay marriage and parental notification of teen abortions; the Senate races in North Carolina, Georgia, Kentucky, Minnesota, Oregon, and Mississippi; Washington's 8th Congressional District race; and a handful of house races in unlikely places. Here in Washington, in addition to Darcy Burner's race in the 8th, I'll be watching the gubernatorial race and ballot measures regarding transportation and assisted suicide.