With concerns rising that a default within the EU could be a "Lehman event" for Europe, the Fed has come up with fairly vigorous stress tests for potential fallout on the largest US banks and other institutions. The new tests assume an initial quarterly drop in GDP of 8%, and a U3 unemployment rate that increases to 13% within two years, an ( Read more... )

Is it a new recession? Has a new recession begun? Is the economy still growing? Has the expansion stalled?

The two headline US unemployment reports covering last month came in better than expected, and Wall Street quickly grabbed on to this and proclaimed evidence that the forecasters of recession have it all wrong. Even CNBC's Steve Liesman, who ( Read more... )

Despite the addition of another solid month of jobs gains in the private sector according to the medium to large sized businesses who were sampled, initial jobless benefits claims and also the official U3 Household Survey Unemployment Rate both rose significantly last month.

Initial Unemployment Claims (Source: Econoday.com)

( Read more... )

From Econoday.com

Released on 9/3/2010 8:30:00 AM For Aug, 2010   PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change-131,000 -90,000 -160,000  to 75,000 -54,000 Private Payrolls - M/M change71,000 40,000 -5,000  to 110,00 67,000  ( Read more... )

The headline unemployment rate (U3) fell to 9.5% in June, mostly because of a massive exodus of job seekers from the official labor force, as they gave up looking. Meanwhile, in a potentially bad omen heading into July, both the average workweek and average hourly earnings slipped in June.

Econoday.com
Released on 7/2/2010 8:30:00 AM For Jun, 2010 ( Read more... )

WSJ Real Time Economics
Broader U-6 Unemployment Rate Increases to 16.8% in February

The U.S. jobless rate was unchanged at 9.7% in February, following a decline the previous month, but the government’s broader measure of unemployment ticked up 0.3 percentage point to 16.8%.

The comprehensive gauge of labor underutilization, known as the “U-6″ for ( Read more... )

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Technically, the recession is over. Technically. But the REAL economy, having never really recovered after the 2001 recession, only to then be thrown into its worst recession since the 1930s, can only fairly be characterized to be in a "moderated depression."

We stopped it from becoming "Great," but this ( Read more... )

The Atlantic
Unemployment Rate Falls To 9.7%, But 20,000 Jobs Were Lost?

The national unemployment rate declined in January to the seasonally adjusted rate of 9.7% from 10.0% in December, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The rate beat consensus expectations of remaining unchanged at 10.0%. But even though the national rate declined, 20, ( Read more... )

Gallup, USATODAY:
Americans See Economic Recovery a Long Way Off
Two-thirds (67%) believe it will be two or more years before recovery starts

Americans are thinking in terms of years, not months, when pondering how much longer it will be before the U.S. economy starts to recover. The vast majority (67%) believe it will be at least two years before a ( Read more... )

Long Post: The Good The Bad & The Ugly

Now the bad news: The Payroll Survey suggests December took far more back than were added in November, with a net loss during the month of 85,000. But much, much worse, the Household Survey suggests that outright massive losses are still ongoing, with a net job loss in December of an astounding five hundred- ( Read more... )