State Coincident Index Shows Broad Recovery Underway Nationwide

[cieldumort]

If the economy doesn't much feel like it is in recession anymore, there are some very good reasons for this. Yes, of course, the housing market is still in low gear and the unemployment rate is still much higher than everyone but perhaps Karl Rove would like, but from what I have seen, I would place better than even odds that GDP for the past two

Comments

[nebris]

How much of this is merely 'virtual money' earned by financial manipulators?

[cieldumort]

NONE in the Coincident Index. This state coincident index is made up solely of "nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements" - the coincident (current conditions) index is pretty much ground truth.

SOME in the Leading Index. This state leading index formula is made up of "state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill" - thus, state-level housing permits do not reflect actual follow-through, and the interest rate spread is almost entirely a function of FedMagik™

[madman101]

your posts and community are greatly appreciated

[cieldumort]

thanks, madman :)

ps: love the icon!