State Coincident Index Shows Broad Recovery Underway Nationwide
If the economy doesn't much feel like it is in recession anymore, there are some very good reasons for this. Yes, of course, the housing market is still in low gear and the unemployment rate is still much higher than everyone but perhaps Karl Rove would like, but from what I have seen, I would place better than even odds that GDP for the past two years eventually gets revised up.
States' Coincident Index Showing Lots of Green
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia today released the coincident indexes for February 2012. The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic.
About the February Release PDF
In the past month, the indexes increased in 48 states and decreased in two (Rhode Island and New Mexico). Over the past three months, the indexes increased in all 50 states.
States' Six-Month Outlook Strengthens
State Leading Indexes
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia produces leading indexes for each of the 50 states. The indexes are calculated monthly and are usually released a week after the release of the coincident indexes...
The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia