January Jobs Data Spikes Recovery Ball In The End Zone

Feb 03, 2012 12:38

Released On 2/3/2012 8:30:00 AM For Jan, 2012 PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActualNonfarm Payrolls - M/M change200,000 135,000 110,000  to 189,000 243,000 Unemployment Rate - Level8.5 %8.5 %8.3 % to 8.7 %8.3 %Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change0.2 %0.2 %0.0 % to 0.3 %0.2 %Av Workweek - All Employees34.4 hrs34.4 hrs34.3 hrs to 34.4 hrs34.5 hrsPrivate Payrolls - M/M change212,000 150,000 125,000  to 203,000 257,000 Highlights
The January jobs report posted stronger than expected with payroll gains and unemployment dip. Payroll jobs in January advanced 243,000 after jumping 203,000 in December (originally 200,000) and rising 157,000 in November (prior estimate up 100,000). The net revisions for November and December were up 60,000. Analysts projected a 135,000 boost for January. Today's report includes annual revisions to payroll series, including benchmark revisions to payroll levels and new seasonal factors. Household data received annual revisions last month but reflect updated population estimates in January data... (Above courtesy Econoday.com)

Today's employment report covering the seasonally-adjusted first look at last month's non-farm payrolls, as well as the official U3 Unemployment Rate (two separate figures, counted differently) really paints a picture of an economy re-recovering after a close scrape with sliding into double dip recession in 2011.

We will all give ECRI their mid-2012 deadline to prove their unqualified recession call the maximum amount of time possible, but at present, it continues looking like they may have jumped the gun on this one.

Another clear picture painted by the unemployment report is that President Obama's economic policies succeeded in first putting a tourniquet around the country's arm, and then stitching the gaping wound up, then injecting a course of antibiotics plus vitamin therapy, and then following that all up with outpatient services.

While I'm quite sure that those people who hate Obama for real or profit will continue to find new and creative ways to turn themselves into a pretzel trying to explain these numbers (or if they be Fox News - just simply redraw the graph, or if they be Mitt Romney simply lie about the time Obama was in even in the White House) the rest of us can see that Obamanomics have indeed been working.

Here is an unadulterated graph of payroll employment from the start of 2008 - and including the Bush Stimulus of early that year - to present. Judge for yourself.



Template courtesy www.CalculatedRiskBlog.com

Economists react in real time on CNBC this morning:


recoveries, stimulus bill, obamanomics, nonfarm payrolls, bush administration, unemployment rate

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