Goldman's O'Neil: Current Slowdown Nothing Like '08
Jim O’Neil, Chairman at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, made his case to CNBC today that the start of this year is nothing like the start of the 2008-09 debacle.
It is certainly true that early in 2008, the best economic and market forecasters had already concluded that recession risks were high, and that at the start of this year, many of those same forecasters who called the last recession correctly are now actually pulling back on their risk of recession for the current year. But, it is important to keep in mind that in 2008 it was largely the U.S. who exported recession to Europe and the rest of the world, thereby feeling it first here in states - and that now, in 2012, it is largely Europe exporting slowdown (recession?) to the rest of the world.
It seems to me that anyone who has basically written off recession in the US this year is whistling past the cemetery - not saying that this Goldman's O'Neil has, for he does highlight that downside risks very much exist - only pointing out that nearly all recessions have started with market forecasters boasting that this time is different.
CNBCEuro Zone Current Slodown 'Nothing Like 2008': Goldman’s O’Neill
...“We came into the year with people full of fearing (a repeat of) '08 if not worse…and the evidence from all over the place is that it’s nothing like '08,” O’Neill said.
He pointed out that at the core of the euro zone, Germany appeared to be accelerating.
“So one third of the euro zone that’s supposedly falling apart is actually improving,” he said.
China appears as though it’s getting closer to a soft landing, he said, and the United States was also showing signs of moving forward...
It is certainly true that early in 2008, the best economic and market forecasters had already concluded that recession risks were high, and that at the start of this year, many of those same forecasters who called the last recession correctly are now actually pulling back on their risk of recession for the current year. But, it is important to keep in mind that in 2008 it was largely the U.S. who exported recession to Europe and the rest of the world, thereby feeling it first here in states - and that now, in 2012, it is largely Europe exporting slowdown (recession?) to the rest of the world.
It seems to me that anyone who has basically written off recession in the US this year is whistling past the cemetery - not saying that this Goldman's O'Neil has, for he does highlight that downside risks very much exist - only pointing out that nearly all recessions have started with market forecasters boasting that this time is different.
CNBCEuro Zone Current Slodown 'Nothing Like 2008': Goldman’s O’Neill
...“We came into the year with people full of fearing (a repeat of) '08 if not worse…and the evidence from all over the place is that it’s nothing like '08,” O’Neill said.
He pointed out that at the core of the euro zone, Germany appeared to be accelerating.
“So one third of the euro zone that’s supposedly falling apart is actually improving,” he said.
China appears as though it’s getting closer to a soft landing, he said, and the United States was also showing signs of moving forward...