New Global Slowdown Imminent?
More and more data points coming out suggesting that indeed a new global slowdown is imminent, if not already underway, with major countries such as Japan and the UK now in a severe slowdown, if not outright classic, technical recession.
Today we learned that the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for the US dipped for the first time in many months, US manufacturing activity has all but started contracting again, and housing has continued to mire in double dip throughout spring.
Investors Business Daily
Cruel Summer? Data Signal Global Industrial Slowdown
A global summer slowdown looms as a leading indicator of factory activity has turned down, according to a well-respected independent research firm.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute's long leading indicator of global industrial growth peaked at 0.7 in August 2010, predicting a cyclical peak for industrial activity this summer. The index stood at 0.1 in March, near the lowest level since January 1980.
"There's a downturn in global industrial growth in clear sight," said ECRI managing director Lakshman Achuthan.
Output has already started to decelerate in the U.S., Europe and key emerging market countries such as China that have driven the global economic recovery...
Philly Fed Index Suggests Softness Now & More Ahead
Six-Month Indicators Fall Sharply
The future general activity index decreased 17 points this month, following a 29-point decline last month (see Chart). The indexes for future new orders and shipments also declined, decreasing 12 and 17 points, respectively. The index for future employment, which had been improving in recent months, fell back 15 points. Still, more firms expect to increase employment over the next six months (29 percent) than expect to decrease employment (7 percent).
Econoday.com
Existing Home Sales Weaken Further:
Released on 5/19/2011 10:00:00 AM For Apr, 2011 PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual Existing Home Sales - Level - SAAR5.10 M5.2 M5.1 M to 5.4 M5.05 MExisting Home Sales - M/M Change3.7 % -0.8 %Existing Home Sales - Yr/Yr Change-6.3 % -12.9 % Highlights
The housing sector continues to stumble with April existing home sales coming in a little below expectations at a 5.05 million annual unit rate, down 0.8 percent in the month with the year-on-year rate moving into the negative double digits at 12.9 percent. Supply on the market ballooned to 9.2 months at the current sales rate vs 8.3 months in March.
DShort.com
Producer Price Inflation Profit Margin Squeeze Has Been Hitting Tinderbox, Recession-Preceding Levels:
Profit Margin Squeeze Continues to Grip the Economy
...The Philly Fed Prices Paid Minus Prices Received Index is an extremely volatile series, which I've illustrated by using dots for the monthly data points. To highlight the underlying pattern, I've included a 12-month moving average (MA). The date callouts show that the comparable levels in the past were associated with inflationary peaks. The April ratio is down from last month but remains high: at the 88th percentile of the 517 monthly data points in this series. The 12-month MA has declined 2.1% from the all-time high set in March.
