More Conclusive Evidence Technical Recession May Have Ended
While technically-speaking, the recession, the deepest of the post-WWII era and longest since the 1930s, may very well have ended somewhere between June and September, the recovery, at least for some time, may continue to be jobs-light, lob-less, or even job-loss. Combined with word that recession has ended, which encourages the previously discouraged to start aggressively seeking work again, the headline unemployment rate is likely to continue going up, possibly even hitting 11% or even higher in 2010.
As banks were never planning for double-digit unemployment, and both commercial and residential real estate continue to be under extreme pressure to the downside, some say the risk of another leg down for the US if not world economy remains high.
Today's upbeat releases (credit Econoday.com):
ICSC Goldman Store Sales Released on 9/15/2009 7:45:00 AM For wk9/12, 2009
PriorActual Store Sales - W/W change0.6 %0 %Store Sales - Y/Y-0.1 %1.6 %
Highlights
Mild weather, easy comparisons and increased consumer demand make for an upbeat ICSC-Goldman report. Week-to-week sales were unchanged in the Sept. 12 week but the year-on-year rate jumped into positive ground, at 1.6 percent for the best showing in a year.
Redbook Same Store Sales Released on 9/15/2009 8:55:00 AM For wk9/12, 2009 PriorActual Store Sales Y/Y change-2.4 %-1.9 %
Highlights
Strong demand for basics and discounted goods offset continued weak demand for discretionary items. Redbook's retail year-on-year tally shows sizable improvement in the Sept. 12 week, at minus 1.9 percent for the best reading since the spring. The report said the week's gain is ahead of its monthly model. Retail sales for August, released at 8:30 ET, showed gains across many components and together with the weekly ICSC-Goldman and Redbook reports point tentatively to the possibility that consumer spending is finally stabilizing.
Retail Sales Released on 9/15/2009 8:30:00 AM For August, 2009 PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual Retail Sales - M/M change-0.1 %2.0 %0.8 % to 2.9 %2.7 %Retail Sales less autos - M/M change-0.6 %0.4 %0.1 % to 0.8 %1.1 % Highlights
Retail sales in August made a sizeable comeback-boosted by cash-for-clunkers and higher gasoline prices. But other components were healthy in general. Overall retail sales jumped 2.7 percent in August, following a revised 0.2 percent drop the previous month. The gain in August was above market expectation for a 2.0 percent surge. Government incentives jacked up auto sales a huge 10.6 percent for the latest month. Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales rebounded 1.1 percent, following a revised 0.5 percent fall in July. The market had forecast a 0.4 percent gain for August. As expected, gasoline sales spiked 5.1 percent on higher prices. Even so, excluding motor vehicles and gasoline, retail sales posted a 0.6 percent advance, following a 0.4 percent decrease the previous month.
Components outside of autos and gasoline were unexpectedly healthy other than housing or construction related components. Consumers apparently are a little more optimistic about the economy as they boosted sales in a variety of categories, including general merchandise, up 1.6 percent for August; electronics & appliances, up 1.1 percent; and food & beverage stores, up 0.5 percent. The key laggards were furniture & home furnishings, down 1.6 percent, and building materials & garden equipment & supplies, down 1.2 percent.
Overall retail sales on a year-ago basis in August were down 5.3 percent, improving from down 8.5 percent in July. Excluding motor vehicles, the year-on-year rate rose to down 6.2 percent in August from down 8.6 percent the month before.
The August retail sales numbers show the consumer surprisingly willing to open up wallets. Part of this likely is the fact that sales had fallen so low that any notable pickup in sales would look good percentage-wise. Nonetheless, the numbers will be encouraging for retailers and also will boost estimates for third quarter GDP growth.
As banks were never planning for double-digit unemployment, and both commercial and residential real estate continue to be under extreme pressure to the downside, some say the risk of another leg down for the US if not world economy remains high.
Today's upbeat releases (credit Econoday.com):
ICSC Goldman Store Sales Released on 9/15/2009 7:45:00 AM For wk9/12, 2009
PriorActual Store Sales - W/W change0.6 %0 %Store Sales - Y/Y-0.1 %1.6 %
Highlights
Mild weather, easy comparisons and increased consumer demand make for an upbeat ICSC-Goldman report. Week-to-week sales were unchanged in the Sept. 12 week but the year-on-year rate jumped into positive ground, at 1.6 percent for the best showing in a year.
Redbook Same Store Sales Released on 9/15/2009 8:55:00 AM For wk9/12, 2009 PriorActual Store Sales Y/Y change-2.4 %-1.9 %
Highlights
Strong demand for basics and discounted goods offset continued weak demand for discretionary items. Redbook's retail year-on-year tally shows sizable improvement in the Sept. 12 week, at minus 1.9 percent for the best reading since the spring. The report said the week's gain is ahead of its monthly model. Retail sales for August, released at 8:30 ET, showed gains across many components and together with the weekly ICSC-Goldman and Redbook reports point tentatively to the possibility that consumer spending is finally stabilizing.
Retail Sales Released on 9/15/2009 8:30:00 AM For August, 2009 PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual Retail Sales - M/M change-0.1 %2.0 %0.8 % to 2.9 %2.7 %Retail Sales less autos - M/M change-0.6 %0.4 %0.1 % to 0.8 %1.1 % Highlights
Retail sales in August made a sizeable comeback-boosted by cash-for-clunkers and higher gasoline prices. But other components were healthy in general. Overall retail sales jumped 2.7 percent in August, following a revised 0.2 percent drop the previous month. The gain in August was above market expectation for a 2.0 percent surge. Government incentives jacked up auto sales a huge 10.6 percent for the latest month. Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales rebounded 1.1 percent, following a revised 0.5 percent fall in July. The market had forecast a 0.4 percent gain for August. As expected, gasoline sales spiked 5.1 percent on higher prices. Even so, excluding motor vehicles and gasoline, retail sales posted a 0.6 percent advance, following a 0.4 percent decrease the previous month.
Components outside of autos and gasoline were unexpectedly healthy other than housing or construction related components. Consumers apparently are a little more optimistic about the economy as they boosted sales in a variety of categories, including general merchandise, up 1.6 percent for August; electronics & appliances, up 1.1 percent; and food & beverage stores, up 0.5 percent. The key laggards were furniture & home furnishings, down 1.6 percent, and building materials & garden equipment & supplies, down 1.2 percent.
Overall retail sales on a year-ago basis in August were down 5.3 percent, improving from down 8.5 percent in July. Excluding motor vehicles, the year-on-year rate rose to down 6.2 percent in August from down 8.6 percent the month before.
The August retail sales numbers show the consumer surprisingly willing to open up wallets. Part of this likely is the fact that sales had fallen so low that any notable pickup in sales would look good percentage-wise. Nonetheless, the numbers will be encouraging for retailers and also will boost estimates for third quarter GDP growth.