Depression Circa 2009: How a Modern Depression Might Look (WSJ)
Wall Street Journal:
How a Modern Depression Might Look -- If the U.S. Gets There
In the wake of the biggest financial shock since 1929, economists say the odds of a depression are less than 50-50 -- though still uncomfortably high. But even if a depression comes to pass, a 21st-century version would look very different from the one 80 years ago.
There is no consensus definition for "depression." Harvard University economist Robert Barro defines it as a decline in per-person economic output or consumption of more than 10%, and puts the odds of a depression at about 20%. Many economic historians say the line between recession and depression is crossed when unemployment rises above 10% and stays there for several years.
A discussion thread on another site quotes the whole story.
Business journalism would be tragic if it weren't so funny, no?
The Wall Street Journal cites much the same bunch of economists who claimed for the better part of last year that there was merely a scant chance of falling into a recession sometime in 2008, when in fact, a recession had already begun.. and began even the year before, for some authoritative voice on what the chances are that we may now fall into a depression sometime in our near future.
To further the lunacy, then they make the assertion that a modern-day depression would just be about downloading fewer songs for ones iTunes.
Did anyone alert these experts to the fact that more people have lost their homes to this meltdown than at any time since the Great Depression? Or that the rate of incline in the national unemployment rate is sharper than during even the severe 1974 and 1981 recessions?
Yes... These folks might be downloading fewer songs to their iTunes.
::eye roll::
At least the very last paragraph kept it real:
Starting in the 1980s, the U.S. saw an extraordinary period of economic quiescence, where growth was steady and policy makers dealt with financial crises handily. Economists began to doubt the possibility of a financial crisis so severe it would upend the economy. And that left them as blindsided as their counterparts when the crisis came 80 years ago.
How a Modern Depression Might Look -- If the U.S. Gets There
In the wake of the biggest financial shock since 1929, economists say the odds of a depression are less than 50-50 -- though still uncomfortably high. But even if a depression comes to pass, a 21st-century version would look very different from the one 80 years ago.
There is no consensus definition for "depression." Harvard University economist Robert Barro defines it as a decline in per-person economic output or consumption of more than 10%, and puts the odds of a depression at about 20%. Many economic historians say the line between recession and depression is crossed when unemployment rises above 10% and stays there for several years.
A discussion thread on another site quotes the whole story.
Business journalism would be tragic if it weren't so funny, no?
The Wall Street Journal cites much the same bunch of economists who claimed for the better part of last year that there was merely a scant chance of falling into a recession sometime in 2008, when in fact, a recession had already begun.. and began even the year before, for some authoritative voice on what the chances are that we may now fall into a depression sometime in our near future.
To further the lunacy, then they make the assertion that a modern-day depression would just be about downloading fewer songs for ones iTunes.
Did anyone alert these experts to the fact that more people have lost their homes to this meltdown than at any time since the Great Depression? Or that the rate of incline in the national unemployment rate is sharper than during even the severe 1974 and 1981 recessions?
Yes... These folks might be downloading fewer songs to their iTunes.
::eye roll::
At least the very last paragraph kept it real:
Starting in the 1980s, the U.S. saw an extraordinary period of economic quiescence, where growth was steady and policy makers dealt with financial crises handily. Economists began to doubt the possibility of a financial crisis so severe it would upend the economy. And that left them as blindsided as their counterparts when the crisis came 80 years ago.