Top 10 Military Spenders in 2006
I'm not that political; I've never had the head for it. I wish it were otherwise, and I'm trying to make myself more aware, but it's a weakness I acknowledge and have never been happy with.
But I can do first grade math.
Yesterday I was reading Anti-War and found a link to the Top 10 military spending nations in 2006, as released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The USA, unsurprisingly comes top. In fact the USA accounts for 46% of all military spending worldwide, 14% more than the next 9 countries combined.
ranknationbillions spent%
1.USA$528.746%
2.Britain$59.25%
3.France$53.15%
4.China$49.54%
5.Japan$43.74%
6.Germany$37.03%
7.Russia$34.73%
8.Italy$29.93%
9.Saudi Arabia$29.03%
10.India$23.92%
The figure for the USA is undeniably shocking, but I was frankly rather disturbed that Britain came second, even if by such a large margin. I wanted something to help me make sense of it. As an island nation, of course, we are more reliant on our navy than some other nations, and ships tend to be big and costly. But that, surely, wasn't enough.
Then I wondered how our spending compared to population: where would we rank if we ordered the list by how much are we spending to defend our nation per person? So I took some population data from the US World census at this site.
ranknationbillions spent%population$/person
1.USA$528.746%299185323$1767.13
9.Saudi Arabia $29.03%27805390$1042.96
2.Britain$59.25%60558561$977.57
3.France$53.15%61009939$870.35
8.Italy$29.93%57989986$515.61
6.Germany$37.03%81949998$451.49
5.Japan$43.74%127417000$342.97
7.Russia$34.73%141387455$245.42
4.China$49.54%1321559187$37.46
10.India$23.92%1129722950$21.16
Hmm. Still pretty high.
Now, this is a pretty naive metric; it does not take a nation's wealth into account, nor what it sees as its national interests other than defending its population. And I hasten to add the disclaimer that I am no statistician, and that 10 data points from one extreme end of the spectrum is not a sound basis for reliable modelling. Nonetheless, what could it tell us?
You might think defence spending would be proportional to the size of the population it was required to defend, and as such you'd expect to see a pretty even result for $/person. However, a small country facing a hostile larger country must strain its resources much further in order to match their opponent might for might. So a little thought would show that $/person will in fact be inversely proportional to population.
So, if we rearrange that list in descending order of population, and assume purely defensive military spending, we should be able to spot a trend:
ranknationbillions spent%population$/person
4.China$49.54%1321559187$37.46
10.India$23.92%1129722950$21.16
1.USA$528.746%299185323$1767.13
7.Russia$34.73%141387455$245.42
5.Japan$43.74%127417000$342.97
6.Germany$37.03%81949998$451.49
3.France$53.15%61009939$870.35
2.Britain$59.25%60558561$977.57
8.Italy$29.93%57989986$515.61
9.Saudi Arabia $29.03%27805390$1042.96
And it's actually not a bad fit. There's a minor spike at the top, possibly because China has a much stronger economy than India, and an interestingly large dip for Italy. Whether this may be attributed to its lack of wealth, ambitions, or strategic importance I couldn't say. But overall we do indeed have a trend, and one in which our own position makes reasonable sense. And one in which a significant spike might reasonably indicate an aggressive rogue state.
Oh. Guess what...
But I can do first grade math.
Yesterday I was reading Anti-War and found a link to the Top 10 military spending nations in 2006, as released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The USA, unsurprisingly comes top. In fact the USA accounts for 46% of all military spending worldwide, 14% more than the next 9 countries combined.
ranknationbillions spent%
1.USA$528.746%
2.Britain$59.25%
3.France$53.15%
4.China$49.54%
5.Japan$43.74%
6.Germany$37.03%
7.Russia$34.73%
8.Italy$29.93%
9.Saudi Arabia$29.03%
10.India$23.92%
The figure for the USA is undeniably shocking, but I was frankly rather disturbed that Britain came second, even if by such a large margin. I wanted something to help me make sense of it. As an island nation, of course, we are more reliant on our navy than some other nations, and ships tend to be big and costly. But that, surely, wasn't enough.
Then I wondered how our spending compared to population: where would we rank if we ordered the list by how much are we spending to defend our nation per person? So I took some population data from the US World census at this site.
ranknationbillions spent%population$/person
1.USA$528.746%299185323$1767.13
9.Saudi Arabia $29.03%27805390$1042.96
2.Britain$59.25%60558561$977.57
3.France$53.15%61009939$870.35
8.Italy$29.93%57989986$515.61
6.Germany$37.03%81949998$451.49
5.Japan$43.74%127417000$342.97
7.Russia$34.73%141387455$245.42
4.China$49.54%1321559187$37.46
10.India$23.92%1129722950$21.16
Hmm. Still pretty high.
Now, this is a pretty naive metric; it does not take a nation's wealth into account, nor what it sees as its national interests other than defending its population. And I hasten to add the disclaimer that I am no statistician, and that 10 data points from one extreme end of the spectrum is not a sound basis for reliable modelling. Nonetheless, what could it tell us?
You might think defence spending would be proportional to the size of the population it was required to defend, and as such you'd expect to see a pretty even result for $/person. However, a small country facing a hostile larger country must strain its resources much further in order to match their opponent might for might. So a little thought would show that $/person will in fact be inversely proportional to population.
So, if we rearrange that list in descending order of population, and assume purely defensive military spending, we should be able to spot a trend:
ranknationbillions spent%population$/person
4.China$49.54%1321559187$37.46
10.India$23.92%1129722950$21.16
1.USA$528.746%299185323$1767.13
7.Russia$34.73%141387455$245.42
5.Japan$43.74%127417000$342.97
6.Germany$37.03%81949998$451.49
3.France$53.15%61009939$870.35
2.Britain$59.25%60558561$977.57
8.Italy$29.93%57989986$515.61
9.Saudi Arabia $29.03%27805390$1042.96
And it's actually not a bad fit. There's a minor spike at the top, possibly because China has a much stronger economy than India, and an interestingly large dip for Italy. Whether this may be attributed to its lack of wealth, ambitions, or strategic importance I couldn't say. But overall we do indeed have a trend, and one in which our own position makes reasonable sense. And one in which a significant spike might reasonably indicate an aggressive rogue state.
Oh. Guess what...