An amateur's lesson in ecology.
You may not want to read this.
Carrying capacity refers to the maximum population of a given species that a particular environment can sustain without damage or deterioration. By definition, population varies. At times, in nature, one population may begin to grow rapidly, mapping a curve that is close to exponential. This may be due to the elimination of natural predators or competitors, a relatively rapid adaptation that gives that species access an abundant new niche or resource, a marked change in climate conditions that makes that habitat much more hospitable for that species, or a number of other factors. After a period of nearly limitless growth, this population will reach a peak and crash. This crash is not a gradual process; it is often triggered by famine (as resources are used up), disease (as the concentration of too many individuals pollutes the habitat), and increased violence of species members against each other (as congestion causes territories to overlap). Climatological change and natural disasters may or may not play a part. If there are acceptable habitats nearby, some members of the population may successfully migrate. However, during this crash the vast majority of that population will die, dropping their numbers below the carrying capacity. If there are enough resources to sustain a viable breeding population for the time it takes for the environment to recover, the species' numbers will eventually level out at carrying capacity again (though it may take many generations and the environment may never recover enough to support the original carrying capacity).
Earth, in general, can be viewed as a closed ecological system. Energy reaches us from the sun and is reflected outwards again, but that's about it for inbound and outbound traffic. The estimates I have seen place carrying capacity for the human species at roughly 2 billion. We were well past that number by 1950, and growth has only accelerated since. We're currently above 300% carrying capacity and still heading upwards, if slowing.
On my way home from work last week, I saw the following graffiti on a bus shelter:
Problem: there are too many people in the world.
Solution: Many of us must die.
And even as it struck me as grossly insensitive, I couldn't argue with it.
It is possible that as a species, we will voluntarily slow our birthrate, limit our growth, so that our numbers will gradually drop to a sustainable level. But my hunch is we've passed the point where our environment can sustain us long enough for the downward curve to be gradual. And any way you cut it, balance will only be achieved after the death rate has exceeded the birth rate for a sufficient length of time to drop us at least back to a carrying capacity. Great fortune would make that period long and the decline gentle. But it's far more likely that the drop will be merciless and steep.
I'm not a morbid person, or generally a pessimistic one. My life has treated me unaccountably well, and I am so incredibly grateful for my good health, my good instincts, my good fortune, my good luck. I mourn for the victims of Katrina, of violent extremists, of the Janjaweed, of the misguided war we have waged in Iraq. I am nowhere near as educated or as active as I should be in preserving and improving the lives and circumstances of those who have not had my luck, and I'm pushing myself to do more, learn more, help more. It's a hard process. I'm not yet at a place where I feel confident I'm earning the rewards I've received. I spent this afternoon at a hospital with a friend, I'll spend tonight researching charities so I can make an educated decision about where I wish to donate, and I'll spend the next two days with severely traumatized and amazingly strong girls, helping them overcome the obstacles their lives have created and educating them about those whose obstacles are even greater. And there's still so much more I should be doing.
But for all these efforts, for all my feeling that life should be protected and preserved, every time I learn of the latest mass loss of human life (whether natural or manmade), it strikes me as no more than what's due. And I can't shake the certainty that all of this will pale to what's coming within our lifetimes, or within the span we'll have if chance decides that we aren't among the casualties.
Until that comes, I'll be here, trying to save and change lives anyway. Trying to earn the life I've already had.
Carrying capacity refers to the maximum population of a given species that a particular environment can sustain without damage or deterioration. By definition, population varies. At times, in nature, one population may begin to grow rapidly, mapping a curve that is close to exponential. This may be due to the elimination of natural predators or competitors, a relatively rapid adaptation that gives that species access an abundant new niche or resource, a marked change in climate conditions that makes that habitat much more hospitable for that species, or a number of other factors. After a period of nearly limitless growth, this population will reach a peak and crash. This crash is not a gradual process; it is often triggered by famine (as resources are used up), disease (as the concentration of too many individuals pollutes the habitat), and increased violence of species members against each other (as congestion causes territories to overlap). Climatological change and natural disasters may or may not play a part. If there are acceptable habitats nearby, some members of the population may successfully migrate. However, during this crash the vast majority of that population will die, dropping their numbers below the carrying capacity. If there are enough resources to sustain a viable breeding population for the time it takes for the environment to recover, the species' numbers will eventually level out at carrying capacity again (though it may take many generations and the environment may never recover enough to support the original carrying capacity).
Earth, in general, can be viewed as a closed ecological system. Energy reaches us from the sun and is reflected outwards again, but that's about it for inbound and outbound traffic. The estimates I have seen place carrying capacity for the human species at roughly 2 billion. We were well past that number by 1950, and growth has only accelerated since. We're currently above 300% carrying capacity and still heading upwards, if slowing.
On my way home from work last week, I saw the following graffiti on a bus shelter:
Problem: there are too many people in the world.
Solution: Many of us must die.
And even as it struck me as grossly insensitive, I couldn't argue with it.
It is possible that as a species, we will voluntarily slow our birthrate, limit our growth, so that our numbers will gradually drop to a sustainable level. But my hunch is we've passed the point where our environment can sustain us long enough for the downward curve to be gradual. And any way you cut it, balance will only be achieved after the death rate has exceeded the birth rate for a sufficient length of time to drop us at least back to a carrying capacity. Great fortune would make that period long and the decline gentle. But it's far more likely that the drop will be merciless and steep.
I'm not a morbid person, or generally a pessimistic one. My life has treated me unaccountably well, and I am so incredibly grateful for my good health, my good instincts, my good fortune, my good luck. I mourn for the victims of Katrina, of violent extremists, of the Janjaweed, of the misguided war we have waged in Iraq. I am nowhere near as educated or as active as I should be in preserving and improving the lives and circumstances of those who have not had my luck, and I'm pushing myself to do more, learn more, help more. It's a hard process. I'm not yet at a place where I feel confident I'm earning the rewards I've received. I spent this afternoon at a hospital with a friend, I'll spend tonight researching charities so I can make an educated decision about where I wish to donate, and I'll spend the next two days with severely traumatized and amazingly strong girls, helping them overcome the obstacles their lives have created and educating them about those whose obstacles are even greater. And there's still so much more I should be doing.
But for all these efforts, for all my feeling that life should be protected and preserved, every time I learn of the latest mass loss of human life (whether natural or manmade), it strikes me as no more than what's due. And I can't shake the certainty that all of this will pale to what's coming within our lifetimes, or within the span we'll have if chance decides that we aren't among the casualties.
Until that comes, I'll be here, trying to save and change lives anyway. Trying to earn the life I've already had.