Gay Marriage: I think the tide's turning.
Maine joined Massachusetts, Iowa, Connecticut and Vermont (their law takes effect in September) today when their governor signed into law a bill recognizing gay marriage. It's not surprising that most of these states are in the northeast (and I'm tickled pink by Iowa, of all places). The northeast is far more liberal in outlook and more likely to accept change. Ultimately, though, the key is going to be demographics.
According to the polls I've been seeing, specifically over at CNN (and Nate Silver has some good data, but I wasn't able to find the age bracket data there... yet ;-), the most telling data is age-related. In the 18 to 34 age group, 60% approve of gay marriage. The pro side drops off as respondents get older, with 25% approval in the 65+ crowd.
This is huge.
This is *especially* huge for the punch drunk Republican party.
Political parties *need* that 18 to 34 demographic. They need them because they are the voters who will determine if a party has a stable majority for years to come. Or, in the current case of the elephant in ICU, if they exist at all. With every passing year, more and more of that 65+ demographic is dying off. We're going to see that 25% approval rating rising, bit by bit.
When I look at my daughter and her friends (15 - they'll vote in the next presidential election), I see a remarkable thing. They're completely confused about why anyone would think there's something wrong with being gay. They're especially confused by the idea of a gay couple not being able to marry. Granted, this is a small, highly intelligent group of kids (she goes to a public high school that requires students to test in and maintain their grades), but it falls into line with what the polls are finding. They're not being radical activists and bucking authority, they're really confused by the idea that anyone could possibly see anything wrong with it. The "argument" about "protecting marriage" isn't cutting any ice with them, either. Most of them have divorced parents. They see the irony masquerading as logic.
So, while it's likely still going to take a while, I really do think the end is in sight. It galls me that I can fall in love with a man and marry 30 days after I get the license (I think it's still 30 days in Texas) but my friends who happen to have fallen for a member of the same sex simply *can't* unless they move to one of the states mentioned above. It's obscene that they have to wait.
At least the end of their wait may well be in sight.
According to the polls I've been seeing, specifically over at CNN (and Nate Silver has some good data, but I wasn't able to find the age bracket data there... yet ;-), the most telling data is age-related. In the 18 to 34 age group, 60% approve of gay marriage. The pro side drops off as respondents get older, with 25% approval in the 65+ crowd.
This is huge.
This is *especially* huge for the punch drunk Republican party.
Political parties *need* that 18 to 34 demographic. They need them because they are the voters who will determine if a party has a stable majority for years to come. Or, in the current case of the elephant in ICU, if they exist at all. With every passing year, more and more of that 65+ demographic is dying off. We're going to see that 25% approval rating rising, bit by bit.
When I look at my daughter and her friends (15 - they'll vote in the next presidential election), I see a remarkable thing. They're completely confused about why anyone would think there's something wrong with being gay. They're especially confused by the idea of a gay couple not being able to marry. Granted, this is a small, highly intelligent group of kids (she goes to a public high school that requires students to test in and maintain their grades), but it falls into line with what the polls are finding. They're not being radical activists and bucking authority, they're really confused by the idea that anyone could possibly see anything wrong with it. The "argument" about "protecting marriage" isn't cutting any ice with them, either. Most of them have divorced parents. They see the irony masquerading as logic.
So, while it's likely still going to take a while, I really do think the end is in sight. It galls me that I can fall in love with a man and marry 30 days after I get the license (I think it's still 30 days in Texas) but my friends who happen to have fallen for a member of the same sex simply *can't* unless they move to one of the states mentioned above. It's obscene that they have to wait.
At least the end of their wait may well be in sight.