The existential choice
Moldova is taking big strolls toward the EU, or at least that is the goal of the pro-Western government coalition that has ruled the country for the last five years. The results from its policies can be seen very easily: last summer Moldova signed the association and free trade agreement with the EU, and since April its citizens can travel to the Schengen zone without visa.
But the pro-European course of the Moldovan government is being met with serious criticism from Moscow. The regime in Kremlin believes that the former Soviet republic which gained independence in 1991 is still part of the Russian sphere of influence. As punishment for the negotiations with the EU, Russia has stopped importing Moldovan products like wine, fruits, vegetables and meat.
Moldova is one of Europe's poorest countries. It used to be part of the Russian Empire, and in 1918 it became part of Romania. After WW2 it became a Soviet republic. The Moldovan population is ethnically diverse: about 70% are Moldovan Romanians, the Ukrainians and Russians are about 10%, there are also Gagauz and Bulgarians. While Romanian is the official language, a large portion of the population are Russian speakers. In the pro-Russian separatist Transnistrian region and the autonomous Gagauz region (which has also allied itself with Russia), Russian is the official language. And this causes deep internal divisions, as previously mentioned here.
The polls suggest that the pro-European liberal-democratic parties are on par with the Russia-loyal communists and socialists. The population is split right through the middle politically: 44% want pro-Western orientation, and 43% want alliance with Russia. The Communist Party of former president Vladimir Voronin is just one inch ahead of the liberal-democrats and the Democratic Party. But if they win the election, they will have to rely on support from the socialists and a few other pro-Russian parties if they want to control the parliament.
Moldova's association agreement with the EU is most vigorously criticised by the socialists. Their leader Igor Dodon is a former member of Voronin's communist party. He has vowed to immediately annul the EU association agreement if he ever comes to power. He believes that his country's future should be closely linked to Putin's Eurasian Union and the CIS.
The voter turnout will be the decisive factor on today's election. Many voters are still undecided, others are so desperate about the poverty and the constant corruption scandals that are shaking the country, that they are utterly disillusioned with the political establishment. The chairman of the Constitutional Court, Alexandru Tanase has called for the people to go voting, and said that this election is not political, as much as it is a matter of existential choice for his country. He argued that there is no perfect government, but still Moldova should be ruled by politicians who do not rejoice at Russia's trade embargo imposed on their own country (which Dodon's socialists are essentially doing).
As expected, former interim president and speaker of the parliament, Mihai Gimpu, the leader of the Liberal Party is promising to keep the course of ever closer partnership and integration with Europe. Angela Merkel's firm policy on the Russian-Ukrainian issue is an important message to the Moldovans, he believes. Merkel recently criticized Putin for his actions in Ukraine and warned that the fire he has started could easily engulf Georgia, Moldova and the Western Balkans, which she hinted Germany and the EU would not tolerate for a minute.
Ultimately, today's election could be decided by the Moldovan expatriates. About half a million people (ouf of the 4 million Moldovans) currently live and work in Russia. Another half a million, mostly young and highly educated people, study and work in the EU. Half a million of the Moldovans have a Romanian passport, which means they already are EU citizens, although their country itself is still far away from EU membership. It is these hundreds of thousands of voters who could sway the outcome one way or the other. If the pro-European leaning Moldovans living abroad vote en masse, their country could keep its current European orientation. Which is what Moldovan president Nicolae Timofti has emphasised during his pre-election address to the nation. The alternative would be taking a big step backwards, and leaping right into the bear's embrace.