World Cup woes
Just look at that. How can you not love it? See, Brazil and football are something like unofficial synonyms. And now, when the most football-crazed country in the world is just two days away from hosting its first World Cup for the last 64 years, that seems like the perfect opportunity to show what they're capable of. But, apart from the embarrassing construction delays and the incomplete infrastructure, another serious challenge to the world's biggest sports event for the year, are the mass protests.
And those are no mere local protests that'd last for a day or two. They're all over the streets in the big cities, and many are lead by the youth of the so called "June generation" (because of the gigantic protests from last summer). All of that is threatening Brazil's well-polished image of the mother of football (if we assume that England is the detached, somewhat inept father). In some places the whole thing went out of control, violence erupted on the streets and the police had to intervene. And we all know how brutal the Brazilian police can be (at least those of us who've watched City of God, or who've come within a hundred yards from a favela). But that didn't stop the protests, but only inflamed them more. Naturally, the coordination was largely done through the social networks, and it grew ever more efficient with the steady approach of the World Cup. And the attempts of the authorities to cover up the massive popular disconent from the world's view only brought an even firmer stance of the police forces, and the expected response of more violence, and then mass protests, and the vicious circle kept spiraling down.
A recent Datafolha poll shows that less than half of the Brazilians actually favour hosting the World Cup (79% back in 2008). Which means that the greatest sports event of the year won't be a moment of national pride and jubilation as one might've expected from such a temperamental nation; it probably won't be a symbol of national unity in the name of a great never-ending show, as many had expected and hoped. Instead, it has unleashed the public anger that had been piling on for months before the October presidential elections, where Dilma Rousseff is hoping to win re-election.
The reasons for all this are the enormous government expenses for the World Cup: the reconstruction of the old stadiums and the building of new ones has cost $3.6 bn. That's money which many would've preferred to see being used elsewhere. So we can see signs being displayed on the streets, demanding "Public transport by the FIFA standards".
The World Cup stadium in the capital Brasilia alone has cost the taxpayers $900 million, three times more than initially planned. We should add extra $7 bn for other infrastructural projects as well. Having in mind that the amount exceeds the one which supposedly backward South Africa spent 4 years ago by 2.5-fold, the suspicions of corruption among Rousseff's administration are inescapable. The protesters believe the gargantuan expenses could've been invested into building homes, overhauling public transport, reforming health-care, initiating social programs, and/or substantially raising the salaries in the public sector. Meanwhile, the government keeps claiming that, by putting the spotlight on Brazil's most valuable product (football), millions of tourists would be attracted to the country, who'll in turn infuse billions into the economy during this one month of football craze. Being one of those tourists, I can confirm that there's some truth in that, yes. But when a new super-modern mega-sport facility pops up in the middle of a sea of favelas basking in misery and crowded with people who barely make ends meet, the conflict is imminent.
This public anger is caused by the huge amount of money that's being poured into the sinkhole that is the hosting of the most expensive edition of the FIFA World Cup in history, plus the inability to complete even half of the promised infrastructure projects. People are genuinely disgusted by the so called "legal corruption", which is happening in broad daylight. Like the pouring of vast amounts into the coffers of the construction companies, which also happen to be among the major donors of the politicians' election campaigns. No surprise that they're then being commissioned to build useless new stadiums, where old ones are readily available, and much cheaper to refurbish for the event. Or the forceful removal of local communities from their homes, so their land could be given to the "entrepreneurs". Meanwhile, an event whose price is mainly being paid by the state (read: the people), turns out most profitable for FIFA, the world football governing body. So the protest is not so much against football itself, but against excessively spending so much of people's money. Not to mention the frequent deaths of construction workers across the country that have aggravated the situation even more.
The legendary Pelé, the King of Football, recently commented that it's clear that the money was "too much" and "in some cases much more than needed", and part of it could've gone for schools and hospitals. Because that's what Brazil needs more than anything. Still, he did criticise the violence used by some protesters. Another Brazilian football star, Ronaldo "The Phenomenon", now member of the World Cup organisation committee, also acknowledged that 30% of the infrastructure projects won't be ready in time. The country had some ambitious plans to reconstruct roads, airports and city transportation grids. But it turned out they found it difficult to complete even basic projects like stadiums, so most of the rest was postponed for a later time.
Right now the protests are showing that the anger that erupted last year around the same time, is still very much alive. In June 2013 the country saw some of the largest protests for the last 20 years, and those were again directed against the vast amounts of money being spent on the stadiums. Also against social injustice, the steady climb of the prices, the horrible state of the public services, and rampant corruption. Now, if people keep chanting on the streets during the World Cup itself, their rebellion against their corrupt and incompetent government will be finally displayed on TV screens all around the world, and Rousseff will suffer a tremendous blow to her image, just before the presidential election. And there's the Olympics in Rio two years from now, let me remind you. Another massive sports event, which will mainly enrich Brazil's richest. So I see big trouble there, too.
Although Dilma is still being viewed as the front-runner on the election, the public discontent from her rule and the dismal state of the economy is growing. Her two main rivals, Aecio Neves of the social democrats and Eduardo Campos of the socialists are inching ever closer to her, and narrowing the gap.
A Pew research shows that a staggering 72% of the Brazilians are not happy with the direction where their country is headed. Those who deem Rousseff's government "good" or "very good" are shrinking, now 35%, compared to 65% a year earlier. This is giving more power to the calls (including from members of her own party) for pro-business reforms. But people from her circle believe that if she's re-elected, she won't be changing much about her pattern of strong intervention in the economy, including attempts to control the currency movement, the interest rates, and inflation. Some minor modifications in her policy might be observed, but the essence will remain.
Since she was elected president in 2011 the growth of Latin America's largest economy has been disappointing (about 2% for the last three years), public finances are deteriorating, the infrastructure is falling apart, inflation is crawling upwards despite all attempts to artificially hold the prices. This contrasts to the two super-successful terms of her predecessor Lula, where the living standard of a unprecedented number of Brazilians was substantially raised, and economic and social inequality was on a decline.
For the time being, the protests are far from the size of those from a year ago. And the big questionis are whether they'll persist after the first whistle of the World Cup on Thursday, and whether they'll intensify. That's something the government would be desperate to avert. But it depends on many factors, the police's behaviour among them (if they respond with excessive force, that could ignite the protests, like it happened last year). Or, heaven forbid, a too early exit of the Brazilian national team from the competition (in that case, grief and the feeling that the enormous expenses had gone for nothing, could have a devastating effect). Still, the rulers are hoping that the gripping power of the event would prevail and help tone down some of the political passions. Of course it's hard to predict at this point, but I reckon there'll be some protests, albeit not too massive.
But the bottom line is, even if the national team does win their record 6th world title and the Brazilians spend their time dancing samba on the stadiums instead of yelling and throwing Molotovs on the streets, Dilma would still be only able to take a breath for a little while. Because Brazil's fragile economy and the public moods are showing that, even if she wins a second term, it won't be as "easy" as the first one was.
Still, I'm flying over there to the Brazilian Northeast with the family and some pals tomorrow, hoping for a relatively cloudless three-week sojourn, both literally and figuratively.