Putin's true mind process

[abomvubuso]

For someone who's going out of their way to create the airs about themselves that they don't give a pigeon's dropping about what others (certainly international rivals) think of him, Putin does seem to have invested waaay too much effort and funds into creating a network of his own propaganda mouthpieces around the English-speaking Internet outlets

Comments

[policraticus]

Of course Putin wants to manage how he is perceived. He wants to be feared. If the fear is great enough the "sanctions" will remain manageable and he will continue to have the freedom to rebuild the Russian sphere of influence to at least Czarist, if not Soviet, levels.

The type of response the West is prepared to deliver to all that, and its willingness to do certain sacrifices for the sake of making an actual point that would really resonate with Russia, is entirely up to them.

I wouldn't hold my breath for anything more than the empty platitudes we've gotten so far.

[mahnmut]

Good point.

"No, that's not an opinion, it's a fact! If another house can seize one of our own and hold him captive with impunity, we are no longer a house to be feared." -- Tywin Lannister

[policraticus]

Upon this a question arises: whether it be better to be loved than feared or feared than loved? It may be answered that one should wish to be both, but, because it is difficult to unite them in one person, is much safer to be feared than loved, when, of the two, either must be dispensed with. Because this is to be asserted in general of men, that they are ungrateful, fickle, false, cowardly, covetous, and as long as you succeed they are yours entirely; they will offer you their blood, property, life and children, as is said above, when the need is far distant; but when it approaches they turn against you. And that prince who, relying entirely on their promises, has neglected other precautions, is ruined; because friendships that are obtained by payments, and not by greatness or nobility of mind, may indeed be earned, but they are not secured, and in time of need cannot be relied upon; and men have less scruple in offending one who is beloved than one who is feared, for love is preserved by the link of obligation which, owing to the

[mahnmut]

"And now at last it comes. You will give me the Ring freely! In place of the Dark Lord you will set up a Queen. And I shall not be dark, but beautiful and terrible as the Morning and the Night! Fair as the Sea and the Sun and the Snow upon the Mountain! Dreadful as the Storm and the Lightning! Stronger than the foundations of the earth. All shall love me and despair!" -- Galadriel

[htpcl]

The pain is already being profoundly felt throughout the russian business class and their middle class. The devastating blow to the ruble had an immediate effect. The Russians have dug themselves into the woodwork, awaiting calmer times. The Russian economy is already starting to slow down dangerously.

Not saying Putin's days being numbered is a given fact, probably not gonna be anytime soon. But it's definitely not the winning situation he might be hoping for.

[htpcl]

I can get where the chess references are coming from, since in the context of geopolitics it's usually being glued to any situation that implies a long-term strategy. Perhaps Putin genuinely believes he's playing some long-term game with short-term costs for long-term gains. And that seems to be confirmed by the terminology he likes to use; reference: "the collapse of the USSR was the biggest geopolitical disaster of the XX century"; and all the "multipolar world", "Eurasian Union", and other neo-imperial rhetoric that he tends to spew on a regular basis.

Whether that's truly a long-term plan or he really makes stuff up as he goes and then goes out of his way to present it as if it's part of a grand plan of some sorts, is another thing. He's pushing that sort of narrative, so that warrants the respective references.

[ivankon]

No. This probably will not work. You wrong about Putin "consistently provide what the Russian establishment and middle-class needs and wants". He just eaten media and pour streams of lie about he is a good guy. Sanctions just will be presented as attack of external enemies and will be used as excuse for additional anti-democratic reforms.

[abomvubuso]

And the Russian people and political establishment will just keep taking it, regardless of the further extremities he goes to? Really, how far could the excuse of external threat be used before people realise it's all a trick?

[ivankon]

Far enough. See Northern Korea for practical limits of people patience in conditions of informational blockade from own government and economic blockade of outer world. Russian nation is used to live in all sorts of blockade during long periods of last century. So no problems from mentality even if China will participate in economic blockade.

But Russia will never fall to Northern Korea level because 1) higher inner resources, 2) limited lifespan of Putin. And... when Putin die West will get 100 millions of people filled by hatred and distrust.