On Jon Huntsman
Utah governor Jon M. Huntsman has been nominated by the Obama Administration as ambassador to China. Given that Huntsman is a centrist Republican, with previous ambassadorial experience in East and Southeast Asia (Singapore under Bush-41), and fluent in Mandarin, his confirmation is expected to be swift.
Nationally, many are speculating that the appointment is meant to head off a likely presidential bid by Huntsman in 2012. If true, the ambassadorial experience - to a powerhouse like China, no less - would bolster Huntsman's odds if he decided to run in 2016, while letting Romney soften up anti-Mormon attitudes among the Republican base by running again in 2012, so Obama would be making Huntsman more attractive as a candidate at the same time he delays him. I guess that's bipartisanship in action?
(Yes, Utahns)
Locally, Huntsman's departure would mean Lieutenant Governor Gary Herbert would be running Utah's executive branch until a special election in 2010. That special election could scramble the 2010 elections, especially the Republican primaries, as many who were eyeing Bob Bennett's Senate seat would have to pick between that and the Governor's office.
Herbert is also a different kind of Republican than Huntsman. For example, Huntsman is something of an environmentalist, while Herbert denies anthropogenic climate change exists; Huntsman supports same-sex civil unions, while Herbert does not support any legal benefits for same-sex couples.
Prior to the Reagan Coalition, Utah was something of a gubernatorial swing state: the first twelve governors were evenly split between six Democrats and six Republicans, with nearly equal time in office (forty-one years under Republicans versus forty-eight under Democrats). Beginning with Norm Bangerter's election in 1984, the Republicans have dominated gubernatorial elections.
However, the Utah Republican Party has had to move increasingly towards the center with their gubernatorial candidates in response to Utah's shifting demographics - mainly the result of heavy immigration by Hispanics and people from coastal California to Salt Lake County and the area around Park City. (Bet you thought the population growth was just because of insanely high birth rates. Well, you were only partially right.) Leavitt, although still solidly a conservative, was closer to the center than Bangerter, and Huntsman's definitely centrist.
The UTRP has benefited electorally by moderating their gubernatorial candidates, even though the Utah State Legislature has had increasingly acrimonious relations with those same candidates once in office. Bangerter won reelection because of a third-party spoiler that worked against the Democrats, whereas Leavitt was able to gain reelection without that third-party spoiler, and with a strong Democratic candidate, and Huntsman cruised to easy victory in both 2004 - against a strong candidate - and 2008.
Herbert represents a return to the far right for Utah's governors. It will be interesting to see how that turns out for the UTRP in the 2010 special election, and again for the regular election in 2012. My own prediction is that Herbert will win the 2010 election easily enough, but his staunch conservatism will turn off enough voters to make the 2012 election competitive, unless the Utah Democratic Party can only find a sacrificial lamb to field. On that note, there's already speculation as to who the Democratic candidate might be, with current U.S. Representative Jim Matheson heading the list.