The Odds of Determinism
I am not Winston Churchill, nor are you Andrew Lloyd Webber.
This is something we can be certain of .
There is no chance the opposite is, or can ever be, true (unless you actually are Mr. Webber and you are collecting material for "LiveJournal: The Musical" in which case ignore this example since it is meant for people who are supposed to not be you).
I cannot become the first Queen of America.
There is no chance of that happening.
Strangely, there is a larger chance of my becoming the first Queen of America than of you being Andrew Lloyd Webber.
Granted, my becoming the Queen of anything would be curious circumstances indeed.
These are large enough odds, big clunky examples, that, when questioned, the answer becomes obvious.
Odds of successfully navigating an asteroid field are better or worse than Mickey Rourke playing Harry Potter in the next film?
When do chances become less defined?
When do the odds become uncertain?
Is there a way to start with the large and obvious odds and work our down to predicting the smaller stuff such as…
… will there be peanuts or pretzels in those little brown bowls at the pub tonight?
This is something we can be certain of .
There is no chance the opposite is, or can ever be, true (unless you actually are Mr. Webber and you are collecting material for "LiveJournal: The Musical" in which case ignore this example since it is meant for people who are supposed to not be you).
I cannot become the first Queen of America.
There is no chance of that happening.
Strangely, there is a larger chance of my becoming the first Queen of America than of you being Andrew Lloyd Webber.
Granted, my becoming the Queen of anything would be curious circumstances indeed.
These are large enough odds, big clunky examples, that, when questioned, the answer becomes obvious.
Odds of successfully navigating an asteroid field are better or worse than Mickey Rourke playing Harry Potter in the next film?
When do chances become less defined?
When do the odds become uncertain?
Is there a way to start with the large and obvious odds and work our down to predicting the smaller stuff such as…
… will there be peanuts or pretzels in those little brown bowls at the pub tonight?