So here's my Oscar picks...granted I haven't seen everything nominated, I'm seen my share and plan on seeing the majority of the rest before the ceremony comes up. All the picks I'm making are from personal thoughts, opinions of friends, and critic reviews (in that order of consideration).
Best Makeup -
Narnia was too CGI from what I've seen, while Cinderella Man wasn't anything special that hasn't been done in every boxing movie. While Ep. 3 also had alot of CGI, it still had quite a bit of excellent "old-school" makeup. And it looked fucking sweet.
"The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe"
"Cinderella Man"
"Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith"
Best Cinematography -
I haven't seen enough of these all the way through. Personally, I don't think Batman should win even though the mountainous scenes were beautiful. Those alone shouldn't bring the award to it though. From what I've read, this should belong to "Good Night, and Good Luck" or "Memoirs of a Geisha". Don't be suprised to see an "ass raping" clean up of Brokeback across the board though.
"Batman Begins"
"Brokeback Mountain"
"Good Night, and Good Luck"
"Memoirs of a Geisha"
"The New World"
Best Art Direction -
A category that I feel is just to make people feel appreciated. Expect King Kong to win it based on classic references to the original.
"Good Night, and Good Luck"
"Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire"
"King Kong"
"Memoirs of a Geisha"
"Pride & Prejudice"
Best Visual Effects -
This is a hard one to pick. They all had excellent visual effects (as much as I hated War Of The Worlds, it's true) so picking a personal favorite is even hard. Ahh, but that one group that did all the LOTR movies did King Kong...so expect that to be the winner.
"The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe"
"King Kong"
"War of the Worlds"
Best Documentary Feature -
I haven't seen any of these fully besides Murderball. Personally, I wanted to see March Of The Penguins, but I never found the time to watch the copy I had. I've heard great things about all of these, but I loved March of the Penguins. So that's my pick. In reality, I could see Enron winning...it's supposed to be excellent.
"Darwin's Nightmare"
"Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room"
"March of the Penguins"
"Murderball"
"Street Fight"
Best Animated Feature Film -
Howl's is out due to being foreign. Stop animation is way fucking cool and everyone knows that. Corpse Bride was received to a mixed crowd, and in addition to that the copy I had was fucking bunk. I've heard nothing bad about the W&G movie and the action figures that Toys R Us carried looked hella cool. Can't go wrong on that pick.
"Howl's Moving Castle"
"Tim Burton's Corpse Bride"
"Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit"
Best Original Score -
John Williams has won five Oscars in his life. He's been nominated many more times...there's a reason why he's nominated; cause he's damn good. He's got the nods here for Memoirs/Munich...Munich was done with Speilberg at the helm, rendering it my pick. Not a big fan of his, but he wins Oscars. Brokeback will win if it ends up sweeping...which I don't see happening.
"Brokeback Mountain"
"Memoirs of a Geisha"
"Munich"
"Pride & Prejudice"
Best Original Song -
This is where the voters get to be street. 8 Mile started the revolution, this will continue it. Hustle & Flow, no doubt. This is the sure money. Besides...there's nothing by Howard Shore, Randy Newman, Sting, or Phil Collins. Sure bet.
"In the Deep" from "Crash
"It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" from "Hustle & Flow"
"Travelin' Thru" from "Transamerica"
Best Adapted Screenplay -
History of Violence must win this. It was one of my favorite movies of the year, and I just can't find reason in anything else...with maybe the exception of The Constant Gardener. Fernando Meirelles is the shit, I need to check that movie out. For now though, AHoV makes sense expecially because a graphic novel nod represents change...those voters love two things...drastic change, and highly classical cinema.
"Brokeback Mountain"
"Capote"
"The Constant Gardner"
"A History of Violence"
"Munich"
Best Original Screenplay -
Syriana wasn't original enough to win the "original" award. I know everyone loved Crash...I did too. Buuuuuuuut, Good Night and Good Luck is supposed to be excellent. It may not be my thing, but I don't vote. It's got big names all over it, and I can't say I've heard too many negative things about it. I hated Match Point with a fucking passion and I hope it doesn't win, but it's got a shot.
"Crash"
"Good Night, and Good Luck"
"Match Point"
"The Squid and the Whale"
"Syriana"
Best Supporting Actress -
I honestly can't say...I don't think Catherine Keener was anything special in Capote, and I haven't seen any of the others. Brokeback should be the front runner, but I don't think Michelle Williams has much screen time from what I understand. I'm going with Rachel Weisz cause out of all the nominees, she's the hottest.
Amy Adams - "Junebug"
Catherine Keener - "Capote"
Frances McDormand - "North Country"
Rachel Weisz - "The Constant Gardner"
Michelle Williams - "Brokeback Mountain"
Best Supporting Actor -
PAUL GIAMATTI WILL GET WHAT IS COMING TO HIM, HE DESERVES IT. Although I have not seen Cinderella Man, Giamatti is the shit and deserves the Oscar. He's been passed over before, and there just doesn't seem to be anyone that great besides him in this one. I think maybe if Brendan Frasier or Don Cheadle were the Crash nominess they would have a shot, but are they even supporting in that one? It's hard to tell.
George Clooney - "Syriana"
Matt Dillon - "Crash"
Paul Giamatti - "Cinderella Man"
Jake Gyllenhaal - "Brokeback Mountain"
William Hurt - "A History of Violence"
Best Actress -
I've only seen one of these, but that's enough. Reese Witherspoon was excellent in Walk The Line. Just amazing. She's really gotten better in all of her roles over the years, and I think she has a chance. Her main contender is Judi Dench though, just for the classical points. She's already gotten one though, so she's owed nothing.
Judi Dench - "Mrs. Henderson Presents"
Felicity Huffman - "Transamerica"
Keira Knightley - "Pride & Prejudice"
Charlize Theron - "North Country"
Reese Witherspoon - "Walk the Line"
Best Actor -
I'm not going to lie, this one is hard to pick. I haven't heard much bad about any of these performances. I could see anyone winning, but I think the way the other shows are going, PSH has a little push behind him. But by no means is he my choice...I'm not even bolding because anyone can win.
Philip Seymour Hoffman - "Capote"
Terrence Howard - "Hustle & Flow"
Heath Ledger - "Brokeback Mountain"
Joaquin Phoenix - "Walk the Line"
David Strathairn - "Good Night, and Good Luck"
Best Director -
Another hard one to pick. Brokeback is the favorite, but I think everyone might have caught on since its the end of award season that Ang Lee sucks. He makes flukes. And Croughing Tiger. Paul Haggis is an excellent writer, and a promsing director, but I don't know if thats enough. I think people are going to go with Clooney or Speilberg. Just a hunch I get.
Ang Lee - "Brokeback Mountain"
Bennett Miller - "Capote"
Paul Haggis - "Crash"
George Clooney - "Good Night, and Good Luck"
Steven Spielberg - "Munich"
Best Picture -
Hard category to pick...Brokeback has the nods, but I have just heard too much negative about it to say it's going to win favorite. Crash is loved too much by the general public, so count that out. Munich is the historical Spielberg piece, and we all know how Schindler's List did when it was in the Oscars. Good Night and Good Luck is really a film I wish I saw. It's just got so much going for it. Capote still didn't sit well with me. I can't put my finger on it, but it was just too dry. I'm not saying it needed a chase scene or anything, but it needed something...besides an excellent performance by PSH. Right now, I just have to pick what seems logical...
"Brokeback Mountain"
"Capote"
"Crash"
"Good Night, and Good Luck"
"Munich"
Still a few nominations I'm upset about...mostly a visual effect/art direction for Sin City. They just seem to want to keep those categories as minimal as possible even though if they are going to make them, they should treat them like any other category.