arsenal wagner
Having always been a firm believer in Wenger I shall not depart from my long held faith in his ability to manage a football club. What the last ten minutes spent trawling through the sports pages has made me want to do, however, is make a frank assessment of the situation right now. I'll start with the news that got me wanting to write.
The Oxlade Chamberlain signing raises a number of questions. He is undoubtedly a very similar player to Walcott, and has arrived with the same hype and promise Walcott brought in what, 2006. With a dearth of attacking depth, and with Walcott apparently not figuring in the starting 11 for the coming season, what is OC supposed to do? Compete with Walcott for a slot? Replace him? It seems quite ridiculous Wenger would spend 15 on OC when he has debated over the whole window so far on Samba, valued from 8-12. This guy seems too young to start for the team and fills perhaps the least apparent need in our squad. With potentially departing playmakers (and talismen?), 2 quality defenders when almost every rival has 5-6, and no experienced goalkeeper, why has Wenger spent on a winger who will only be ready in 2-3 years? If OC, however, is to start, can anyone realistically see him troubling Kolarov, Evra, Cole or even Assou Ekotto? Also, surely Wenger must realise splitting the 15 on OC on paying above what has been offered and rejected for Samba, Jagielka or Cahill would ensure Arsenal has to quality to remain among the top and continue to attract talented youngsters. If the 15 on OC costs us, who is to say that in 2-3 years Arsenal will still be a go to destination for that generation's most talented youth?
A close look at the defence reveals some very worrying signs. Sagna and Vermaelen are obviously strong and capable defenders. The other two slots are filled by Koscielny - a solid but honestly uninspiring player, who is too often drawn into fouls in the box, and Kieran Gibbs, who, wasn't good enough to displace the fragile Clichy from the LB slot. So our best case scenario as things stand is half a capable defence. Vermaelen and Gibbs are injured. This brings Djourou and Traore in. Djourou is again not a bad player. He will however get outdone by a quality striker. Traore is abysmal. If Sagna gets injured we have no second RB with Eboue gone. That brings a midfielder, say Song into RB. We have no second holding midfielder. This leaves us with not just the worst defence among the top 6 but perhaps among the bottom 5-6 defences in the league. I don't think the need for 3 defenders is a matter of opinion - In the premiership you need 4 people who are above Championship level. We have 2, and we don't have any reinforcement full backs who can be counted upon to handle premiership quality attacks. We need 3 signings there, and the news coming out of Emirates is that the club is being drawn into 1 because, only because, Verm is injured.
As far as the Keeper and attacker argument goes I'll say this. On limited funds I don't think it is the worst thing to not buy a keeper. Sczescny isn't awful - again he isn't amazing either - but the goalkeeper crisis is not nearly as alarming as that in defence. Assuming Nasri and Fabregas stay we really don't need an attacker. We have RVP, Cesc, Nasri, Wilshere, Ramsey, Walcott, Gervinho, Arshavin, OC, Diaby (long term injury aside), Chamakh, Vela and Rosicky. Who is to say this attacking lineup is in any way inferior to Chelseas, Uniteds or Citys. If Fabregas and Nasri leave well I think, once people are over the unbelievable disappointment that would bring, the expectation would be that Sniejder or someone of similar quality will be instantly hauled in.
The conclusion here is that Arsenal needs a left back and 2 centre halves and needs to hang on for dear life to Fabregas and Nasri. On the latter need, pure financial sense should prevail. Selling Nasri you get 25 and your wage bill goes down say 90k a week. If Nasri goes Fabregas will just abandon any pretense of wanting to stay. For him thats maybe 35 and 120k off the wage bill. Signing even 1 replacement of their quality at today's market rate (coupled with obviously predicatable desperation from Arsenal if this happens) that means spending 40 and then 180k a week on someone who may or may not be as good as Fabregas and, once that goes through, lacking the time to scout a replacement for Nasri, or, in the event one is found, 30 and 100k a week. Net financial loss clearly. Loss of quality as well + time for them to adapt etc etc. I mean losing both would be a crisis that is arguably not solvable until the next season. Keeping Nasri, however, may mean agreeing to pay him 150 a week. Thats 60 a week more on the wage bill. Lets say other top players at the club want in on that kind of pay package. With only RVP and Fabregas (and at a stretch Vermaelen Sagna and Song) indispensable at the moment the worst case would be giving RVP and cesc 50 more a week and say the other 3 an average pay hike of 30 weekly. That collectively works out to 250,000 more/ week and 12m more a month. But that is 12m over a year to keep Fabregas and nasri at the club and eliminate the massive carry on effect (which will be, trust me, financially draining) their potential departures will have. 3 defenders and a few sizeable pay hikes and Arsenal will be the best team in Europe trust me.
The Oxlade Chamberlain signing raises a number of questions. He is undoubtedly a very similar player to Walcott, and has arrived with the same hype and promise Walcott brought in what, 2006. With a dearth of attacking depth, and with Walcott apparently not figuring in the starting 11 for the coming season, what is OC supposed to do? Compete with Walcott for a slot? Replace him? It seems quite ridiculous Wenger would spend 15 on OC when he has debated over the whole window so far on Samba, valued from 8-12. This guy seems too young to start for the team and fills perhaps the least apparent need in our squad. With potentially departing playmakers (and talismen?), 2 quality defenders when almost every rival has 5-6, and no experienced goalkeeper, why has Wenger spent on a winger who will only be ready in 2-3 years? If OC, however, is to start, can anyone realistically see him troubling Kolarov, Evra, Cole or even Assou Ekotto? Also, surely Wenger must realise splitting the 15 on OC on paying above what has been offered and rejected for Samba, Jagielka or Cahill would ensure Arsenal has to quality to remain among the top and continue to attract talented youngsters. If the 15 on OC costs us, who is to say that in 2-3 years Arsenal will still be a go to destination for that generation's most talented youth?
A close look at the defence reveals some very worrying signs. Sagna and Vermaelen are obviously strong and capable defenders. The other two slots are filled by Koscielny - a solid but honestly uninspiring player, who is too often drawn into fouls in the box, and Kieran Gibbs, who, wasn't good enough to displace the fragile Clichy from the LB slot. So our best case scenario as things stand is half a capable defence. Vermaelen and Gibbs are injured. This brings Djourou and Traore in. Djourou is again not a bad player. He will however get outdone by a quality striker. Traore is abysmal. If Sagna gets injured we have no second RB with Eboue gone. That brings a midfielder, say Song into RB. We have no second holding midfielder. This leaves us with not just the worst defence among the top 6 but perhaps among the bottom 5-6 defences in the league. I don't think the need for 3 defenders is a matter of opinion - In the premiership you need 4 people who are above Championship level. We have 2, and we don't have any reinforcement full backs who can be counted upon to handle premiership quality attacks. We need 3 signings there, and the news coming out of Emirates is that the club is being drawn into 1 because, only because, Verm is injured.
As far as the Keeper and attacker argument goes I'll say this. On limited funds I don't think it is the worst thing to not buy a keeper. Sczescny isn't awful - again he isn't amazing either - but the goalkeeper crisis is not nearly as alarming as that in defence. Assuming Nasri and Fabregas stay we really don't need an attacker. We have RVP, Cesc, Nasri, Wilshere, Ramsey, Walcott, Gervinho, Arshavin, OC, Diaby (long term injury aside), Chamakh, Vela and Rosicky. Who is to say this attacking lineup is in any way inferior to Chelseas, Uniteds or Citys. If Fabregas and Nasri leave well I think, once people are over the unbelievable disappointment that would bring, the expectation would be that Sniejder or someone of similar quality will be instantly hauled in.
The conclusion here is that Arsenal needs a left back and 2 centre halves and needs to hang on for dear life to Fabregas and Nasri. On the latter need, pure financial sense should prevail. Selling Nasri you get 25 and your wage bill goes down say 90k a week. If Nasri goes Fabregas will just abandon any pretense of wanting to stay. For him thats maybe 35 and 120k off the wage bill. Signing even 1 replacement of their quality at today's market rate (coupled with obviously predicatable desperation from Arsenal if this happens) that means spending 40 and then 180k a week on someone who may or may not be as good as Fabregas and, once that goes through, lacking the time to scout a replacement for Nasri, or, in the event one is found, 30 and 100k a week. Net financial loss clearly. Loss of quality as well + time for them to adapt etc etc. I mean losing both would be a crisis that is arguably not solvable until the next season. Keeping Nasri, however, may mean agreeing to pay him 150 a week. Thats 60 a week more on the wage bill. Lets say other top players at the club want in on that kind of pay package. With only RVP and Fabregas (and at a stretch Vermaelen Sagna and Song) indispensable at the moment the worst case would be giving RVP and cesc 50 more a week and say the other 3 an average pay hike of 30 weekly. That collectively works out to 250,000 more/ week and 12m more a month. But that is 12m over a year to keep Fabregas and nasri at the club and eliminate the massive carry on effect (which will be, trust me, financially draining) their potential departures will have. 3 defenders and a few sizeable pay hikes and Arsenal will be the best team in Europe trust me.