Best Novel What should win: Throne of the Crescent Moon (Saladin Ahmed) What will win: Captain Vorpatril's Alliance (Lois McMaster Bujold)
I'd be happy enough to see your prediction of "2312" winning come true, as it's the only novel besides "Throne" that I liked. But the Goodreads and Amazon reviews of "2312" convince me that it won't win.
Best Novella What should win: The Emperor's Soul (Brandon Sanderson) What will win: The Emperor's Soul (Brandon Sanderson)
Goodreads, Amazon, and opinions expressed around the web all suggest that Sanderson will win.
Best Novelette What should win: Fade to White (Catherynne M. Valente) What will in: In Sea-Salt Tears (Seanan McGuire)
I have no confidence in this prediction. I liked "The Girl-Thing," but it seems to have no reason for existence outside of its own cleverness.
Best Short Story What should win: Mono no Aware (Ken Liu) What will win: Mono no Aware (Ken Liu)
This is the prediction I'm most confident in. Sure, "Immersion" won the Locus Award (not to mention the Nebula). But "Immersion" was free online while "Mono" was in an original anthology. "Immersion" likely had more readers among the Locus voters. The Hugo Voter Packet will help even the playing field.
Best Novel
What should win: Throne of the Crescent Moon (Saladin Ahmed)
What will win: Captain Vorpatril's Alliance (Lois McMaster Bujold)
I'd be happy enough to see your prediction of "2312" winning come true, as it's the only novel besides "Throne" that I liked. But the Goodreads and Amazon reviews of "2312" convince me that it won't win.
Best Novella
What should win: The Emperor's Soul (Brandon Sanderson)
What will win: The Emperor's Soul (Brandon Sanderson)
Goodreads, Amazon, and opinions expressed around the web all suggest that Sanderson will win.
Best Novelette
What should win: Fade to White (Catherynne M. Valente)
What will in: In Sea-Salt Tears (Seanan McGuire)
I have no confidence in this prediction. I liked "The Girl-Thing," but it seems to have no reason for existence outside of its own cleverness.
Best Short Story
What should win: Mono no Aware (Ken Liu)
What will win: Mono no Aware (Ken Liu)
This is the prediction I'm most confident in. Sure, "Immersion" won the Locus Award (not to mention the Nebula). But "Immersion" was free online while "Mono" was in an original anthology. "Immersion" likely had more readers among the Locus voters. The Hugo Voter Packet will help even the playing field.
Alan Heuer
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