The world before later on.
Best Actor:
The near-locks at this point are Jamie Foxx, Paul Giamatti, and Leonardo DiCaprio. The remaining forces to be reckoned with for those last two slots are Javier Bardem, Don Cheadle, Johnny Depp, and Clint Eastwood. The remaining longshots still in the game at this point are Sean Penn and Liam Neeson.
I think Cheadle will make the cut, easily. He’s well-respected, he’s been in a lot of movies, and this is a lead role with substance for him. Just looking at the roles and the reviews, Bardem seems like the obvious choice for the last slot, but I think either Depp or Penn could sneak in-a lot of well-liked actors have had repeated nominations over the past five years, and Penn is one of them. I think he’s a lot closer to a nomination than a lot of people realize, even if he doesn’t actually make it in.
There’s also the possibility of rewarding Depp for the fact that, for the past 18 months or so, he’s been able to do no wrong. Eastwood gave his best performance in ages, but it still may be seen as “the Eastwood character” (which it kinda is), and that he’ll be rewarded as the director, producer, and possibly composer. Bardem could still make it in, but I’m just not sure how many people saw and liked The Sea Inside. Could be not enough. And the old folk should really like Finding Neverland.
My predictions:
Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator
Jamie Foxx, Ray
Paul Giamatti, Sideways
Best Actress:
Easy. There just aren’t that many possibilities. The token “surprise” will be the woman from Maria Full of Grace, but I really don’t know who else could take her slot, anyway. Possibly Emmy Rossum for surviving Phantom, but really, did she do anything in that movie? Not that others haven’t been nominated for less, but I don’t think she stood out enough. Julie Delpy could make it in as ambassador for Before Sunset, but it’s not a showy role.
My predictions:
Annette Bening, Being Julia
Catalina Sandrino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace
Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Best Director:
The DGA nominees-which rarely go 5/5 with the Oscars-are Scorsese, Payne, Eastwood, Marc Forster for Neverland, and Taylor Hackford for Ray. These are also seen as the five most likely Picture movies. But the director and picture nominees don’t usually match up 100%, either-in fact, they rarely do. What we can get from those likelihoods is that Scorsese, Payne, and Eastwood are in. Forster and Hackford are both the kinds of directors who get left out of the final five while their movies make it in-and they could both get left out here. The potential spoilers are Terry George (Rwanda), Michel Gondry (Eternal Sunshine-remember, Spike Jonze was nominated for Malkovich even though it was too good a movie to make the final five), and a new Oscar trend-the foreign writer-director! Zhang Yimou (House of Flying Daggers) and previous nominee Pedro Almodovar (Bad Education) would fit the bill this year-but the movies may not have gotten quite enough attention. I think Gondry will be foreign enough this year.
My predictions:
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Marc Forster, Finding Neverland
Michel Gondry, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Alexander Payne, Sideways
Martin Scorsese, The Aviator
Best Supporting Actor:
This is a surprisingly dull category this year. Thomas Haden Church, Morgan Freeman, and probably Clive Owen are set. Lots of people are saying Jamie Foxx will get in twice, here for Collateral, even though he is indisputably the “lead” role in Collateral. He and Cruise are both leads, but I could at least kinda see campaigning for Cruise as supporting-but stupid Hollywood status rules mean Cruise got a lead campaign and Foxx got a supporting one. As a result, Foxx could get in there but Cruise has no shot. But Foxx doesn’t really need a nomination for Collateral, and if he gets in as supporting actor, that’ll be pretty unfair to the rest of the nominees, since of course his performance looks better-it had the nuance, arc, and screentime of a lead. Even though Ethan Hawke was nominated for his lead role in Training Day, I’m not sure if Foxx will make the final five.
So the remaining possibilities as I see it are Peter Sarsgaard for Kinsey and Freddie Highmore for Finding Neverland. I’d be skeptical about Sarsgaard-not because he’s not a terrific actor (he is), but because he doesn’t really do a lot in Kinsey (I’d nominate him for Garden State). But he’s getting a lot of buzz as a possibility, maybe ‘cause it’s a thin category this year. Someone who’s getting half-hearted buzz but I think has a good shot is the Neverland kid. Child performances, if they’re good, often get in on novelty factor, and he really is very good in the movie.
My predictions:
Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
Freddie Highmore, Finding Neverland
Clive Owen, Closer
Peter Sarsgaard, Kinsey
Supporting Actress:
In our second instance of a Garden State actor being nominated for another performance, Natalie Portman should make it in for Closer. She’s great in both; I prefer Garden State but that could be considered a lead, so I won’t quibble too much. The hardcore lock is Virginia Madsen; she’s fine in the movie, but really, I have no idea what she does that’s so amazing. Cate Blanchett will make it in for The Aviator because not only is it a high-profile celebrity impersonation, it’s also a fantastic flipping performance from a fantastic effing actor. In she goes. And I think Laura Linney is too well-liked to get ignored for Kinsey. Other mentions go to Kate Winslet for Neverland, Sophie Okonedo for Rwanda, Meryl Streep for The Manchurian Canddiate, and Cloris Leachman for Spanglish. I think they’ll go with the unknown here and kick it with Sophie Okonedo. Winslet is certainly possible, but it’s the kind of role that, while well-played, should be (and probably is) very easy for her.
My predictions:
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Laura Linney, Kinsey
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda
Natalie Portman, Closer
Adapted Screenplay:
The WGA nominees here Sideways, Million Dollar Baby, Mean Girls, The Motorcycle Diaries, and Before Sunset. But! Finding Neverland wasn’t eligible for some reason. I think that will make it into the final five, probably displacing Before Sunset, which I thought was half-improvised anyway. Tina Fey may seem unlikely, but remember that they love to nominate actors for writing awards whenever possible (this could help Sunset, which is credited to Linklater and the two actors). Where’s Closer? Based on a play, lots of dialogue-usually that stuff is Oscar catnip. Maybe it’s the swearing. As for Motorcycle Diaries, there’s been a foreign-language screenplay several times over the past five years-usually from Almodovar, but I think they’ll mix it up and give it to Diaries.
My predictions:
Finding Neverland
Mean Girls
Million Dollar Baby
The Motorcycle Diaries
Sideways
Original Screenplay:
Technically, The Aviator is considered original because it’s not based on a single source, so it’ll probably make the cut, even if it is fairly simple, and the movie’s successes are more directing, acting, and photography. The WGA nominees were that plus Garden State, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Kinsey (in this category for the same reason as Aviator), and Hotel Rwanda (ditto).
So Eternal Sunshine is a lock because Charlie Kaufman’s scripts always get nominated, even if they never get the best picture nods they so richly deserve. The Aviator is very likely, although I couldn’t tell you why. Kinsey and Hotel Rwanda could cause real-life-story burnout, but Kinsey would be a way to nominate Bill Condon, who wrote and directed the film.
I had thought Napoleon Dynamite would be the token “young indie” nomination for original screenplay (which is often where the *actual* best movie of the year gets some recognition)… but maybe Garden State (remember, also written by an actor!) could do it, as it did in the WGA. Maria Full of Grace is another Spanish-language script and I think that helps, dumb as I sound for saying so. No one is mentioning The Incredibles, but I think if Finding Nemo scored a screenplay nod, you have to at least consider it-and be annoyed if it doesn’t happen, since The Incredibles is a much better-written movie. I’m going to go out on a limb and say they’ll ditch Hotel Rwanda, although I concede it’s equally likely that they won’t.
My predictions:
The Aviator
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Garden State
The Incredibles
Kinsey
Picture:
The Aviator, Sideways, and Million Dollar Baby are a done deal. They’re in. The most likely slot-fillers are Finding Neverland and Ray. I haven’t seen the latter, but I just can’t see it making the final five. Did anyone really love the film itself? Maybe some old people, and the Oscars are often decided by old people. But I just don’t think so. Finding Neverland seemed like one of those “Oscar hopefuls” early on that gets a lot of hope and then overlooked for whatever reason-not a big enough hit, not great enough reviews, whatever. But I really think voters will go for Finding Neverland. I mean, come on. COME ON! That’s my argument.
So the fifth slot in my mind is a fight between Ray, Hotel Rwanda, Fahrenheit 9/11 (Moore and Miramax are pushing hard), and longershots Eternal Sunshine and The Incredibles. As much as I want to believe in one of the latter two, I’m guessing Hotel Rwanda will take down Ray because it seems like the more important of the two (and probably is). It’s kind of the more old-person-friendly F911. Eternal Sunshine is probably, again, something that’s stronger than a lot of people believe, because the people who like the movie tend to REALLY like it. It could be on a lot of ballots as #1 or #2. But that’s probably wishful thinking on my part. Same goes for the idea that, because none of the most likely nominees have yet made a *ton* of money, that The Incredibles might be there representin’ for mainstream success.
My predictions:
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Hotel Rwanda
Sideways
As much as I’d rather Incredibles or Sunshine over *any* of those movies, I must admit that would be the best Oscar Five in years. If one of those longshots made it in, I might amend that to “decades.”
Beyond these categories:
The Aviator could well end up with the most nominations, if it scores picture, director, actor, screenplay, plus all the tech stuff it deserves (cinematography, sets, costumes, probably editing, probably some sound stuff). Without making an official tally, I’m guessing around 10, like Gangs of New York.
Million Dollar Baby doesn’t have the costumes, sets, or sound/effects to fall back on, but it should pick up nods for picture, director, actress, supporting actor, screenplay, and probably score, editing, and cinematography. So around 8.
Sideways misses out on a lot of tech stuff, but is right up there with the majors: picture, director, screenplay, actor, supporting actor and actress. Real contenders for best picture tend to have their editing in play, so add that in and you’ve got 7.
Finding Neverland will probably make picture, screenplay, and supporting actor, with strong possibilities of director and actor. That might be where it stops, but that’s still 5.
Hotel Rwanda will be happy with its 3 or 4.
Eternal Sunshine will be the token major-nomination movie to not score a picture nod-I could see it getting in for editing, because it’s tricky and non-linear, and perhaps cinematography (although it’s not at all the kind of cinematography they like to reward, so not super-likely). So 3 or 4 as well.
Closer and Kinsey can feel the kinship of each having two supporting nominations, and probably not a lot else.
Phantom of the Opera will probably net 2 or 3 on tech stuff alone. I don’t know what else will join it in the tech-only field, but it’s hardly ever the types of cinematography, editing, and set design that I think deserves it 100%.
The near-locks at this point are Jamie Foxx, Paul Giamatti, and Leonardo DiCaprio. The remaining forces to be reckoned with for those last two slots are Javier Bardem, Don Cheadle, Johnny Depp, and Clint Eastwood. The remaining longshots still in the game at this point are Sean Penn and Liam Neeson.
I think Cheadle will make the cut, easily. He’s well-respected, he’s been in a lot of movies, and this is a lead role with substance for him. Just looking at the roles and the reviews, Bardem seems like the obvious choice for the last slot, but I think either Depp or Penn could sneak in-a lot of well-liked actors have had repeated nominations over the past five years, and Penn is one of them. I think he’s a lot closer to a nomination than a lot of people realize, even if he doesn’t actually make it in.
There’s also the possibility of rewarding Depp for the fact that, for the past 18 months or so, he’s been able to do no wrong. Eastwood gave his best performance in ages, but it still may be seen as “the Eastwood character” (which it kinda is), and that he’ll be rewarded as the director, producer, and possibly composer. Bardem could still make it in, but I’m just not sure how many people saw and liked The Sea Inside. Could be not enough. And the old folk should really like Finding Neverland.
My predictions:
Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator
Jamie Foxx, Ray
Paul Giamatti, Sideways
Best Actress:
Easy. There just aren’t that many possibilities. The token “surprise” will be the woman from Maria Full of Grace, but I really don’t know who else could take her slot, anyway. Possibly Emmy Rossum for surviving Phantom, but really, did she do anything in that movie? Not that others haven’t been nominated for less, but I don’t think she stood out enough. Julie Delpy could make it in as ambassador for Before Sunset, but it’s not a showy role.
My predictions:
Annette Bening, Being Julia
Catalina Sandrino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace
Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Best Director:
The DGA nominees-which rarely go 5/5 with the Oscars-are Scorsese, Payne, Eastwood, Marc Forster for Neverland, and Taylor Hackford for Ray. These are also seen as the five most likely Picture movies. But the director and picture nominees don’t usually match up 100%, either-in fact, they rarely do. What we can get from those likelihoods is that Scorsese, Payne, and Eastwood are in. Forster and Hackford are both the kinds of directors who get left out of the final five while their movies make it in-and they could both get left out here. The potential spoilers are Terry George (Rwanda), Michel Gondry (Eternal Sunshine-remember, Spike Jonze was nominated for Malkovich even though it was too good a movie to make the final five), and a new Oscar trend-the foreign writer-director! Zhang Yimou (House of Flying Daggers) and previous nominee Pedro Almodovar (Bad Education) would fit the bill this year-but the movies may not have gotten quite enough attention. I think Gondry will be foreign enough this year.
My predictions:
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Marc Forster, Finding Neverland
Michel Gondry, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Alexander Payne, Sideways
Martin Scorsese, The Aviator
Best Supporting Actor:
This is a surprisingly dull category this year. Thomas Haden Church, Morgan Freeman, and probably Clive Owen are set. Lots of people are saying Jamie Foxx will get in twice, here for Collateral, even though he is indisputably the “lead” role in Collateral. He and Cruise are both leads, but I could at least kinda see campaigning for Cruise as supporting-but stupid Hollywood status rules mean Cruise got a lead campaign and Foxx got a supporting one. As a result, Foxx could get in there but Cruise has no shot. But Foxx doesn’t really need a nomination for Collateral, and if he gets in as supporting actor, that’ll be pretty unfair to the rest of the nominees, since of course his performance looks better-it had the nuance, arc, and screentime of a lead. Even though Ethan Hawke was nominated for his lead role in Training Day, I’m not sure if Foxx will make the final five.
So the remaining possibilities as I see it are Peter Sarsgaard for Kinsey and Freddie Highmore for Finding Neverland. I’d be skeptical about Sarsgaard-not because he’s not a terrific actor (he is), but because he doesn’t really do a lot in Kinsey (I’d nominate him for Garden State). But he’s getting a lot of buzz as a possibility, maybe ‘cause it’s a thin category this year. Someone who’s getting half-hearted buzz but I think has a good shot is the Neverland kid. Child performances, if they’re good, often get in on novelty factor, and he really is very good in the movie.
My predictions:
Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
Freddie Highmore, Finding Neverland
Clive Owen, Closer
Peter Sarsgaard, Kinsey
Supporting Actress:
In our second instance of a Garden State actor being nominated for another performance, Natalie Portman should make it in for Closer. She’s great in both; I prefer Garden State but that could be considered a lead, so I won’t quibble too much. The hardcore lock is Virginia Madsen; she’s fine in the movie, but really, I have no idea what she does that’s so amazing. Cate Blanchett will make it in for The Aviator because not only is it a high-profile celebrity impersonation, it’s also a fantastic flipping performance from a fantastic effing actor. In she goes. And I think Laura Linney is too well-liked to get ignored for Kinsey. Other mentions go to Kate Winslet for Neverland, Sophie Okonedo for Rwanda, Meryl Streep for The Manchurian Canddiate, and Cloris Leachman for Spanglish. I think they’ll go with the unknown here and kick it with Sophie Okonedo. Winslet is certainly possible, but it’s the kind of role that, while well-played, should be (and probably is) very easy for her.
My predictions:
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Laura Linney, Kinsey
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda
Natalie Portman, Closer
Adapted Screenplay:
The WGA nominees here Sideways, Million Dollar Baby, Mean Girls, The Motorcycle Diaries, and Before Sunset. But! Finding Neverland wasn’t eligible for some reason. I think that will make it into the final five, probably displacing Before Sunset, which I thought was half-improvised anyway. Tina Fey may seem unlikely, but remember that they love to nominate actors for writing awards whenever possible (this could help Sunset, which is credited to Linklater and the two actors). Where’s Closer? Based on a play, lots of dialogue-usually that stuff is Oscar catnip. Maybe it’s the swearing. As for Motorcycle Diaries, there’s been a foreign-language screenplay several times over the past five years-usually from Almodovar, but I think they’ll mix it up and give it to Diaries.
My predictions:
Finding Neverland
Mean Girls
Million Dollar Baby
The Motorcycle Diaries
Sideways
Original Screenplay:
Technically, The Aviator is considered original because it’s not based on a single source, so it’ll probably make the cut, even if it is fairly simple, and the movie’s successes are more directing, acting, and photography. The WGA nominees were that plus Garden State, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Kinsey (in this category for the same reason as Aviator), and Hotel Rwanda (ditto).
So Eternal Sunshine is a lock because Charlie Kaufman’s scripts always get nominated, even if they never get the best picture nods they so richly deserve. The Aviator is very likely, although I couldn’t tell you why. Kinsey and Hotel Rwanda could cause real-life-story burnout, but Kinsey would be a way to nominate Bill Condon, who wrote and directed the film.
I had thought Napoleon Dynamite would be the token “young indie” nomination for original screenplay (which is often where the *actual* best movie of the year gets some recognition)… but maybe Garden State (remember, also written by an actor!) could do it, as it did in the WGA. Maria Full of Grace is another Spanish-language script and I think that helps, dumb as I sound for saying so. No one is mentioning The Incredibles, but I think if Finding Nemo scored a screenplay nod, you have to at least consider it-and be annoyed if it doesn’t happen, since The Incredibles is a much better-written movie. I’m going to go out on a limb and say they’ll ditch Hotel Rwanda, although I concede it’s equally likely that they won’t.
My predictions:
The Aviator
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Garden State
The Incredibles
Kinsey
Picture:
The Aviator, Sideways, and Million Dollar Baby are a done deal. They’re in. The most likely slot-fillers are Finding Neverland and Ray. I haven’t seen the latter, but I just can’t see it making the final five. Did anyone really love the film itself? Maybe some old people, and the Oscars are often decided by old people. But I just don’t think so. Finding Neverland seemed like one of those “Oscar hopefuls” early on that gets a lot of hope and then overlooked for whatever reason-not a big enough hit, not great enough reviews, whatever. But I really think voters will go for Finding Neverland. I mean, come on. COME ON! That’s my argument.
So the fifth slot in my mind is a fight between Ray, Hotel Rwanda, Fahrenheit 9/11 (Moore and Miramax are pushing hard), and longershots Eternal Sunshine and The Incredibles. As much as I want to believe in one of the latter two, I’m guessing Hotel Rwanda will take down Ray because it seems like the more important of the two (and probably is). It’s kind of the more old-person-friendly F911. Eternal Sunshine is probably, again, something that’s stronger than a lot of people believe, because the people who like the movie tend to REALLY like it. It could be on a lot of ballots as #1 or #2. But that’s probably wishful thinking on my part. Same goes for the idea that, because none of the most likely nominees have yet made a *ton* of money, that The Incredibles might be there representin’ for mainstream success.
My predictions:
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
Hotel Rwanda
Sideways
As much as I’d rather Incredibles or Sunshine over *any* of those movies, I must admit that would be the best Oscar Five in years. If one of those longshots made it in, I might amend that to “decades.”
Beyond these categories:
The Aviator could well end up with the most nominations, if it scores picture, director, actor, screenplay, plus all the tech stuff it deserves (cinematography, sets, costumes, probably editing, probably some sound stuff). Without making an official tally, I’m guessing around 10, like Gangs of New York.
Million Dollar Baby doesn’t have the costumes, sets, or sound/effects to fall back on, but it should pick up nods for picture, director, actress, supporting actor, screenplay, and probably score, editing, and cinematography. So around 8.
Sideways misses out on a lot of tech stuff, but is right up there with the majors: picture, director, screenplay, actor, supporting actor and actress. Real contenders for best picture tend to have their editing in play, so add that in and you’ve got 7.
Finding Neverland will probably make picture, screenplay, and supporting actor, with strong possibilities of director and actor. That might be where it stops, but that’s still 5.
Hotel Rwanda will be happy with its 3 or 4.
Eternal Sunshine will be the token major-nomination movie to not score a picture nod-I could see it getting in for editing, because it’s tricky and non-linear, and perhaps cinematography (although it’s not at all the kind of cinematography they like to reward, so not super-likely). So 3 or 4 as well.
Closer and Kinsey can feel the kinship of each having two supporting nominations, and probably not a lot else.
Phantom of the Opera will probably net 2 or 3 on tech stuff alone. I don’t know what else will join it in the tech-only field, but it’s hardly ever the types of cinematography, editing, and set design that I think deserves it 100%.