Dan's Election 2006 Predictions
Hey all, thought I'd try my hand at precognition a bit here, as I've been watching these elections grow up from little baby campaigns for all these months.
The House of Representatives:
It'd be too much of a pain to analyze all of these races on their own as I'm going to with the Senate. A few days ago, I'd have predicted 30-35 seats flopping to the Democrats. After hearing about all the annoying robo-polls and some other fairly nasty Republican tactics, I'm revising my prediction to 25-30 seats, not including the one in my district (which I don't think will flop, the 23rd NY district).
K, on to the Senate:
Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, New Jersey:
These are all going Democrat. Several of them were already, and got a bit close. Still, I honestly haven't seen enough momentum in these places to explain a Republican senator being elected. They represent a gain for Democrats of 4 seats.
Maryland:
I think it's going Democrat. It's fluctuated a bit in the past week, but the Democrat has remained on top in almost every poll up to now, and it's a Democratic state anyway. The final nail in the coffin is that the Democrats might be pulling some electoral shenanigans like Republicans could be in other states here, so if anything is going to be fishy, it'll be fishy to the left rather than the right. Still at Dems gaining 4 seats.
Tennessee:
This seat will go to the Republican. It was close at one point but some particularly nasty negative ads and frankly a judicious use of the race card have made this race no longer likely to go to the Democrats, unless something unexpected happens. Still at 4 new seats for Dems.
Virginia:
I also believe this seat will go Republican. George Allen, for all his failings in this campaign, is a well liked person in this state. Combined with a number of reports of threatening calls to some citizen of Virginia, and other misleading information screwing with elections, this close race will go to the Republican. Jim Webb ran a great campaign here, went farther than anyone ever expected, but to overcome a popular Republican senator, who had thought of running for President in 2 years, in what is traditionally a red state, was very much an uphill battle.
Missouri:
After challenges and recounts, it will go Democrat. I don't think a final result will be ready for this state tonight due to the close nature of the race overall. But I do believe the Democratic candidate has the edge, and assuming the inevitable (in my eyes) recount goes properly, I believe she will be elected.
Final prediction:
Democratic control of the House
Republican control of the Senate (by constant vote of Dick Cheney to break ties)
But hey, I'm a pessimist. It could be better than this. Or far worse. Either way, EVERYONE in Washington, in all 3 branches, will NEED to start working together (assuming this results in being true). With the House in Democratic control, nobody will be able to pass laws without the other party being agreeable to it, unlike the state right now.
Hope everyone enjoys election night. I know I will :)
The House of Representatives:
It'd be too much of a pain to analyze all of these races on their own as I'm going to with the Senate. A few days ago, I'd have predicted 30-35 seats flopping to the Democrats. After hearing about all the annoying robo-polls and some other fairly nasty Republican tactics, I'm revising my prediction to 25-30 seats, not including the one in my district (which I don't think will flop, the 23rd NY district).
K, on to the Senate:
Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, New Jersey:
These are all going Democrat. Several of them were already, and got a bit close. Still, I honestly haven't seen enough momentum in these places to explain a Republican senator being elected. They represent a gain for Democrats of 4 seats.
Maryland:
I think it's going Democrat. It's fluctuated a bit in the past week, but the Democrat has remained on top in almost every poll up to now, and it's a Democratic state anyway. The final nail in the coffin is that the Democrats might be pulling some electoral shenanigans like Republicans could be in other states here, so if anything is going to be fishy, it'll be fishy to the left rather than the right. Still at Dems gaining 4 seats.
Tennessee:
This seat will go to the Republican. It was close at one point but some particularly nasty negative ads and frankly a judicious use of the race card have made this race no longer likely to go to the Democrats, unless something unexpected happens. Still at 4 new seats for Dems.
Virginia:
I also believe this seat will go Republican. George Allen, for all his failings in this campaign, is a well liked person in this state. Combined with a number of reports of threatening calls to some citizen of Virginia, and other misleading information screwing with elections, this close race will go to the Republican. Jim Webb ran a great campaign here, went farther than anyone ever expected, but to overcome a popular Republican senator, who had thought of running for President in 2 years, in what is traditionally a red state, was very much an uphill battle.
Missouri:
After challenges and recounts, it will go Democrat. I don't think a final result will be ready for this state tonight due to the close nature of the race overall. But I do believe the Democratic candidate has the edge, and assuming the inevitable (in my eyes) recount goes properly, I believe she will be elected.
Final prediction:
Democratic control of the House
Republican control of the Senate (by constant vote of Dick Cheney to break ties)
But hey, I'm a pessimist. It could be better than this. Or far worse. Either way, EVERYONE in Washington, in all 3 branches, will NEED to start working together (assuming this results in being true). With the House in Democratic control, nobody will be able to pass laws without the other party being agreeable to it, unlike the state right now.
Hope everyone enjoys election night. I know I will :)