Electoral Map of September 26th
Since the debate is apparently on, and since it is likely to change the polls one way or the other, I thought I'd supply a pre-debate electoral map.
I'm a bit hampered because something's wrong with the way Zogby's posting its numbers. It looks like they're using the old numbers with the new predictions (You know, saying "Obama is ahead" when their numbers show the opposite, or vice versa). So this time I used the numbers on usaelectionpolls.com, which are from all over the place and therefore (in my view) less reliable. But you use what you've got.
There's a lot more blue than there was ten days ago. While McCain made gains in Kentucky, Maine, Michigan and New Hampshire, Obama made gains in at least ten states, including Pennsylvania and North Carolina, which both seem to have flipped his way for now.
I'm guessing that this is at least partially due to the economic situation, since (as a general rule), the party not in the White House has the advantage during bad economic times, while the reverse is true in good economic times. It makes a rough sort of sense, although It doesn't do much for me since I almost never base my vote on the economy. Perhaps if the economic climate improves between now and November, so will McCain's numbers.
While this is a good showing for Obama, it's not a slam-dunk and we still have several weeks before the election. A lot can change. Tonight, I predict that something (dunno what) will change.
I'm a bit hampered because something's wrong with the way Zogby's posting its numbers. It looks like they're using the old numbers with the new predictions (You know, saying "Obama is ahead" when their numbers show the opposite, or vice versa). So this time I used the numbers on usaelectionpolls.com, which are from all over the place and therefore (in my view) less reliable. But you use what you've got.
There's a lot more blue than there was ten days ago. While McCain made gains in Kentucky, Maine, Michigan and New Hampshire, Obama made gains in at least ten states, including Pennsylvania and North Carolina, which both seem to have flipped his way for now.
I'm guessing that this is at least partially due to the economic situation, since (as a general rule), the party not in the White House has the advantage during bad economic times, while the reverse is true in good economic times. It makes a rough sort of sense, although It doesn't do much for me since I almost never base my vote on the economy. Perhaps if the economic climate improves between now and November, so will McCain's numbers.
While this is a good showing for Obama, it's not a slam-dunk and we still have several weeks before the election. A lot can change. Tonight, I predict that something (dunno what) will change.