Electoral Maps
Those of you who haven't known me for four or eight years don't know of my obsession with electoral vote-counting. I developed an electoral map in which the area of each state is the same as its electoral votes, and I color-coded it to show the current polling data from each state. Using the altered map gives you a much clearer idea of where the hotspots and power centers are. I e-mailed an updated map to my friends every week or two. I thought that this year, I might do it via Live Journal.
So here's the current map, based on the "latest polls" from each state:
This map is better than the standard geographic map because it shows the amount of impact each state has, as well as its (rough) geographic location. It actually gives you 3-4 variables in one image, which is pretty good.
The problem with "latest polls," though, is that they come from different polling organizations. The only polling organization I really trust is Zogby, and they haven't published poll results since June 21st. (They've got a bit stingy about sharing their info with the non-paying public in recent years.)
But at any rate, you can see the difference from, say, the way the map looked just before the 2004 election:
You'll notice that not all of the November 1st polls were borne out in the election. Florida went Republican, for example.
My first reaction is that there are a lot more pure colors in the current map than in 2004. It's also interesting to note that Virginia is (at least at the moment) leaning Democratic this year. But it's early days yet -- notably we're near the end of the Democratic convention. I don't expect realistic map data until the middle of September.
So here's the current map, based on the "latest polls" from each state:
This map is better than the standard geographic map because it shows the amount of impact each state has, as well as its (rough) geographic location. It actually gives you 3-4 variables in one image, which is pretty good.
The problem with "latest polls," though, is that they come from different polling organizations. The only polling organization I really trust is Zogby, and they haven't published poll results since June 21st. (They've got a bit stingy about sharing their info with the non-paying public in recent years.)
But at any rate, you can see the difference from, say, the way the map looked just before the 2004 election:
You'll notice that not all of the November 1st polls were borne out in the election. Florida went Republican, for example.
My first reaction is that there are a lot more pure colors in the current map than in 2004. It's also interesting to note that Virginia is (at least at the moment) leaning Democratic this year. But it's early days yet -- notably we're near the end of the Democratic convention. I don't expect realistic map data until the middle of September.