Floating Storage - a change of emphasis
Отчёт по ситуации на рынке танкерного флота любезно предоставлен компанией Gibson Consultancy and Research:
In total 55 tankers were engaged in both crude and product storage on a temporary basis at the end of March, the highest level since the autumn of last year. March saw 17 tankers (14 million bbls) employed in North West Europe (NWE) for CPP floating storage, the highest monthly total for the region since September. At the same time West African demand for unleaded motor spirit (UMS) has increased and with it demand for LR2s to store prior to discharge. At 11 million bbls, this is the highest storage capacity since June last year. However, indications are that the situation has changed, as tankers in NWE begin to unload product as seasonal demand for gasoil unwinds, but
rise in West Africa with more UMS storage. Overall, floating storage of CPP has been steadily rising since the turn of the year and at the end of March, had reached 27 million bbls. Figures include 1 VLCC and 1 Suezmax with the remaining 35 tankers being made up of 25 LR2s and 10 LR1s. However, the barrels currently stored are still some way short of the peak of 83 million bbls CPP recorded in October 2009, which provided substantial support to the spot tanker market at that time.
On the crude side, little has changed over the past few months with 16 of the 18 VLCCs presently storing, employed to hold Iranian cargoes in the Middle East. The number of Iranian controlled VLCCs used for storage has remained relatively unchanged over the past 8 months as tankers leaving ‘the pool’ to discharge cargoes into SUMED or on a run down to China, are replaced by other units. At the end of March Iranian crude storage amounted to 30 million bbls, or 75% of all worldwide crude floating storage.
In summary, it appears that floating storage is now dominated by seasonal demand and geopolitical events, rather than the far distant contango trading. The recent steady increase in crude prices may have eroded any chance of a re-emergence of price contango and so support for floating storage, particularly in the crude sector. The unwinding of CPP storage in NWE could release more of the current flotilla back onto the spot market, a situation which will intensify downwards pressure on earnings. Thus the prospects for storage now appear to hinge on politics, events and constraints on infrastructure.
CRUDE
The VLCC market this week, along with most other markets, have been predominantly influenced by the noticeable movements in the bunker prices upwards. On the back of this, it has only been compensatory movements upwards on the rates from the start of the week seeing WS 50 east and WS 35 West, with it now ending at around WS 57 and WS 40 respectively with any change unlikely for next week unless the bunkers get further carried away.
Suezmaxes have been feeding on the scraps left by the residual firm Aframax market in the Far East, but as that dies, so does the enquiry for their larger cousins which will have to look for other options and resign themselves to rates finishing this week at around 130 x WS 90 for East destinations. Aframaxs, as mentioned, were on a firm footing, but that now appears to be coming to an end and it appears to be steadying off with AG/East being at around 80 x WS 130.
Suezmax Owners in West Africa couldn’t stop the rot that had begun the week before and the slide continued into this week, as we saw rates further fall to around 130 x WS 75 to the US Gulf with little change likely as Owners hit rock bottom and now look to just cover their OPEX costs. Similarly, VLCC’s have not fared much better, as Eastern ballasters still look at their options alongside the natural positioned Western tonnage. As a result, Owners further felt the pinch at the week's end seeing 260 x WS 57.5 West and WS 52.5 East with little change likely. Much of the same for the Aframaxes in the med as mentioned last week with the build up of tonnage against the lack of enquiry takes it's toll with rates now falling further to the bottom at around 80 x WS 90 for cross Mediterranean voyages with little light at the end of the tunnel. Suezmaxes saw minimal enquiry all week and rates slipped down to a new low of 140 x WS 80 ex Black Sea for both European and states discharge options.
A rather drab week on the Aframaxes in the Caribbean market seemed likely to finish with not too much change. However, a pick up on enquiry coupled with the aforementioned bunker hike saw rates finish about 15 points higher at around 70 x WS 130 upcoast. VLCC’s had another quiet week and rates were put under even more pressure, with rates finishing off the week at around $3.85m for Singapore discharge.
A disappointing week for Owners in the North Sea and the Baltic as rates came off from previous levels. The once lucrative ice trade has slowly been chipped away as Owners have scrambled over one another to lock in for that last ice restricted voyage. This can be seen with 100,000 ex Baltic being fixed at WS 120 (down from a previous level of WS 150). In turn there is even talk of an expected WS 110 which does seem to have all possibility of being fixed. For the North Sea, much remained unchanged a slight move upwards (80,000 at WS 110) being done at the start of week was quickly suppressed and rates tick along close to break even, which is in the region of 80,000 WS 100. However there is still a small bit of room for Charterers to push for, so expect further discounts to follow as rates move towards WS 95 level. VLCC’s had a similar echo to that of the Caribbean, with rates slipping to around $3.85m for Singapore discharge and rates looking unlikely to fall much further.
Источник: www.gibson.co.uk
In total 55 tankers were engaged in both crude and product storage on a temporary basis at the end of March, the highest level since the autumn of last year. March saw 17 tankers (14 million bbls) employed in North West Europe (NWE) for CPP floating storage, the highest monthly total for the region since September. At the same time West African demand for unleaded motor spirit (UMS) has increased and with it demand for LR2s to store prior to discharge. At 11 million bbls, this is the highest storage capacity since June last year. However, indications are that the situation has changed, as tankers in NWE begin to unload product as seasonal demand for gasoil unwinds, but
rise in West Africa with more UMS storage. Overall, floating storage of CPP has been steadily rising since the turn of the year and at the end of March, had reached 27 million bbls. Figures include 1 VLCC and 1 Suezmax with the remaining 35 tankers being made up of 25 LR2s and 10 LR1s. However, the barrels currently stored are still some way short of the peak of 83 million bbls CPP recorded in October 2009, which provided substantial support to the spot tanker market at that time.
On the crude side, little has changed over the past few months with 16 of the 18 VLCCs presently storing, employed to hold Iranian cargoes in the Middle East. The number of Iranian controlled VLCCs used for storage has remained relatively unchanged over the past 8 months as tankers leaving ‘the pool’ to discharge cargoes into SUMED or on a run down to China, are replaced by other units. At the end of March Iranian crude storage amounted to 30 million bbls, or 75% of all worldwide crude floating storage.
In summary, it appears that floating storage is now dominated by seasonal demand and geopolitical events, rather than the far distant contango trading. The recent steady increase in crude prices may have eroded any chance of a re-emergence of price contango and so support for floating storage, particularly in the crude sector. The unwinding of CPP storage in NWE could release more of the current flotilla back onto the spot market, a situation which will intensify downwards pressure on earnings. Thus the prospects for storage now appear to hinge on politics, events and constraints on infrastructure.
CRUDE
The VLCC market this week, along with most other markets, have been predominantly influenced by the noticeable movements in the bunker prices upwards. On the back of this, it has only been compensatory movements upwards on the rates from the start of the week seeing WS 50 east and WS 35 West, with it now ending at around WS 57 and WS 40 respectively with any change unlikely for next week unless the bunkers get further carried away.
Suezmaxes have been feeding on the scraps left by the residual firm Aframax market in the Far East, but as that dies, so does the enquiry for their larger cousins which will have to look for other options and resign themselves to rates finishing this week at around 130 x WS 90 for East destinations. Aframaxs, as mentioned, were on a firm footing, but that now appears to be coming to an end and it appears to be steadying off with AG/East being at around 80 x WS 130.
Suezmax Owners in West Africa couldn’t stop the rot that had begun the week before and the slide continued into this week, as we saw rates further fall to around 130 x WS 75 to the US Gulf with little change likely as Owners hit rock bottom and now look to just cover their OPEX costs. Similarly, VLCC’s have not fared much better, as Eastern ballasters still look at their options alongside the natural positioned Western tonnage. As a result, Owners further felt the pinch at the week's end seeing 260 x WS 57.5 West and WS 52.5 East with little change likely. Much of the same for the Aframaxes in the med as mentioned last week with the build up of tonnage against the lack of enquiry takes it's toll with rates now falling further to the bottom at around 80 x WS 90 for cross Mediterranean voyages with little light at the end of the tunnel. Suezmaxes saw minimal enquiry all week and rates slipped down to a new low of 140 x WS 80 ex Black Sea for both European and states discharge options.
A rather drab week on the Aframaxes in the Caribbean market seemed likely to finish with not too much change. However, a pick up on enquiry coupled with the aforementioned bunker hike saw rates finish about 15 points higher at around 70 x WS 130 upcoast. VLCC’s had another quiet week and rates were put under even more pressure, with rates finishing off the week at around $3.85m for Singapore discharge.
A disappointing week for Owners in the North Sea and the Baltic as rates came off from previous levels. The once lucrative ice trade has slowly been chipped away as Owners have scrambled over one another to lock in for that last ice restricted voyage. This can be seen with 100,000 ex Baltic being fixed at WS 120 (down from a previous level of WS 150). In turn there is even talk of an expected WS 110 which does seem to have all possibility of being fixed. For the North Sea, much remained unchanged a slight move upwards (80,000 at WS 110) being done at the start of week was quickly suppressed and rates tick along close to break even, which is in the region of 80,000 WS 100. However there is still a small bit of room for Charterers to push for, so expect further discounts to follow as rates move towards WS 95 level. VLCC’s had a similar echo to that of the Caribbean, with rates slipping to around $3.85m for Singapore discharge and rates looking unlikely to fall much further.
Источник: www.gibson.co.uk