Колорадские жуки

[tijd]

Алгоритмы искусственного интеллекта способны точно предсказать политическую ориентацию человека (левую или правую) по его физиологической реакции на одну единственную картинку. Для этого используются изображения, вызывающие чувство брезгливости.

Повышенная брезгливость выявляет людей правой (консервативной) ориентации. Логичный результат, если вспомнить что правая мораль связана с чистоплотностью и имеет генетическое происхождение.

В более недавнем исследовании британских ученых трампистов с авторитарными склонностями распознавали по их брезгливости по отношению к телесному запаху.

We hypothesized that body odour disgust sensitivity (BODS) might be associated with authoritarianism, as chemo-signalling is a primitive system for regulating interpersonal contact and disease avoidance, which are key features also in authoritarianism. We used well-validated scales for measuring BODS, authoritarianism and related constructs. Across two studies, we found that BODS is positively related to authoritarianism. In a third study, we showed a positive association between BODS scores and support for Donald Trump, who, at the time of data collection, was a presidential candidate with an agenda described as resonating with authoritarian attitudes. Authoritarianism fully explained the positive association between BODS and support for Donald Trump.
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsos.171091

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Сведения о личной гермафобии Трампа остаются под вопросом, особенно если учесть, что с порнозвездой Сторми Дэниелс он общался без презерватива.

Но на инстинктивную чистоплотность и брезгливость своих поклонников он давит вполне сознательно - в частности, когда рассказывает про то, как Стена на Южной границе предохранит их от полчищ пришельцев, загрязняющих чистоту.


If you read my last number of tweets, only one opinion can be formed - that our President, and therefore "leader," is grossly incompetent!
- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 2, 2014

Но особенно ярко это проявилось в далеком 2014, когда Трамп раздул истеричную кампанию по поводу вируса Эболы, требуя от Обамы не пускать в Америку американцев, зараженных в Африке.

The air ambulance crossed the Atlantic for the first time on August 1, 2014, to pick up Brantly. At that same moment, somewhere in a skyscraper in New York City, Donald Trump opened his Twitter app.
“Stop the EBOLA patients from entering the U.S. Treat them, at the highest level, over there. THE UNITED STATES HAS ENOUGH PROBLEMS!” Trump tweeted first, at 8:22 a.m.
Thirteen hours later, as the air ambulance prepared to bring Brantly home, Trump added: “The U.S. cannot allow EBOLA infected people back. People that go to far away places to help out are great-but must suffer the consequences!”
An analysis by the White House’s Office of Digital Strategy later found that Trump’s tweets represented a turning point, the moment when fear of the deadly virus began to infect the American public. <...>
Trump kept tweeting. In all, the self-admitted germaphobe tweeted about Ebola nearly a hundred times over the next three months. He was among the first to call for a travel ban between the three West African countries and the United States, a call later adopted by Republicans running in the fall midterms. He advocated against sending thousands of American troops, a decision public health officials in Liberia later said helped stem the tide of the outbreak.
And when a Liberian man fell ill days after arriving in Dallas to meet the son he had not seen in a decade, Trump warned: “IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE!” He later falsely accused the man, Thomas Eric Duncan, of having signed false papers. He advocated that Duncan be prosecuted, just days before Duncan died.
Brantly and Writebol walked out of the Emory hospital three weeks after arriving, cured of the virus but haunted by the physical and mental toll it had taken. Months later, visiting the Ebola response team at the White House, Brantly told the assembled staffers about his ordeal.
“I went to Liberia because I was called by God,” Brantly said. “I became deathly ill. I was alone, I couldn’t touch my children or my wife. I was going to die. And my government came to get me and saved my life.”
Around the room, the White House staffers wiped tears from their eyes.
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/386616-how-ebola-entered-the-american-consciousness-a-trump-tweet



Трамп не был одинок. Раздувание истерики про Эболу стало тактикой республиканцев во время выборов в Конгресс в 2014. В этом им радостно помогали ведущие СМИ.

In early October, the GOP developed a plan to make the federal government's response to Ebola a central part of its midterm elections strategy. Television media played into Republicans' hands, helping to foment panic about the disease. Following the diagnosis of a handful of U.S. Ebola patients, the major broadcast networks ran nearly 1,000 segments about the virus in the four weeks leading up to the elections. Coverage of the disease plummeted in the two weeks following Election Day, with the same networks running fewer than 50 total segments.
https://www.mediamatters.org/msnbc/report-ebola-coverage-tv-news-plummeted-after-midterms



Трамп упорно раздувал истерику вплоть до выборов 2014, приезжая в Айову поддержать печально известного Стива Кинга и закидывая удочку про свою будущую президентскую кампанию.

Donald Trump, headed to Iowa this weekend to fundraise for a Republican lawmaker, says the Ebola crisis is more “proof of the president’s incompetence” that could ultimately hurt Democrats at the polls in November.
Speaking by phone with The Daily Caller, the New York businessman sharply criticized President Barack Obama for refusing to restrict commercial flights from Ebola-stricken countries in Africa. An increasing number of Republicans, like Speaker of the House John Boehner, have called on Obama to enact a temporary flight ban.
“It’s incredible,” Trump said of Obama. “Nobody can understand it. He’s either stubborn, incompetent, not smart, listening to the wrong people. Nobody can understand it.”
Asked how he thinks Ebola will affect the midterms, Trump said, “It shows in one sense that Obama continues to be incompetent. Because he’s not stopping the flights to and from West Africa, which are the hotspots…It is just madness.” <...>
On Saturday, Trump heads to Iowa to fundraise for incumbent Republican Rep. Steve King.
“I really like Steve. I’ve watched him over the years. And I’ve become friendly with him. He’s got tremendous viewpoints, and viewpoints that very much concur with mine,” he said.
https://dailycaller.com/2014/10/16/donald-trump-headed-to-iowa-says-ebola-is-further-proof-of-the-presidents-incompetence/

Donald Trump teased the possibility of a 2016 presidential run on a day he came to Iowa to show support for U.S. Rep. Steve King.
The real estate mogul and TV boss spoke to reporters Saturday before a private fundraiser for the Iowa congressman, who is running for re-election in Iowa's 4th Congressional District.
"We'll see what happens," Trump said, regarding a bid for the GOP nomination.
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/2014/10/18/donald-trump-steve-king-right-views/17525945/



Особенностью истерики про Эболу было то, что, хотя нападкам пропаганды подвергался в первую очередь Обама, они также были направлены на американское правительство в целом. Это помогало расшатать доверие к вашингтонскому "истеблишменту", что в 2014 способствовало приходу на популистских лозунгах новых республиканских сенаторов, а через два года помогло самому Трампу.

Donald Trump said on Monday morning there are some simple reasons he doesn’t trust the U.S. government to handle the Ebola outbreak. Among them: Obamacare and Benghazi.
Trump, who has been vocal about Ebola, made his comments during a call to the Fox News show “Fox and Friends.”
“I think very few people trust our government as being competent,” Trump told the hosts.
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/donald-trump-ebola-obamacare-benghazi

CBS News contributor and Republican strategist Frank Luntz says the government's mishandling of the crisis is likely to hurt incumbents the most.
"It's going to affect both political parties," Luntz said. "Basically if you're in Washington, you're going to end up with responsibility for this. You're going to end up with anger for this. And the public is going to take it out on you. And it's only 14 days before the election."
But the biggest impact may be on Americans' faith in the government as a whole.
A recent CBS News poll found confidence in government is at an all time low.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ebola-outbreak-midterm-election-candidates-using-crisis-in-debate/



Среди республиканцев, которые отвоевали большинство в Сенате в 2014 (и смогли после этого заблокировать назначение Обамой судей в Верховный суд), был Кори Гарднер, который победил в Колорадо, набрав 48% (против 46% у его демократического соперника).

Раздувание истерики про Эболу было в центре его предвыборной тактики.

From Pulitzer Prize-winning fact-checker Politifact-no shortage of lies on the campaign trail in 2014, but here's what they chose as the biggest whopper of this almost-concluded midterm election year:
[Since the first Ebola case in America], more Americans - at least nine, and likely many more - have died from the flu.
Yet fear of the disease stretched to every corner of America this fall, stoked by exaggerated claims from politicians and pundits. They said Ebola was easy to catch, that illegal immigrants may be carrying the virus across the southern border, that it was all part of a government or corporate conspiracy.
The claims - all wrong - distorted the debate about a serious public health issue. Together, they earn our Lie of the Year for 2014…
When combined, the claims edged the nation toward panic. Governors fought Washington over the federal response. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stumbled to explain details about transmission of the virus and its own prevention measures. American universities turned away people from Africa, whether they were near the outbreak or not.
Here in Colorado, the chief promoter of Ebola as a campaign issue this fall was GOP U.S. Senate candidate Cory Gardner. In October, Gardner's claims about the federal government's response to the Ebola outbreak were slammed by the very same Politifact.
https://www.coloradopols.com/diary/66084/politifacts-lie-of-the-year-cory-gardners-ebola-scare-tactics



На выборах 2020 против Кори Гарднера выставлялся Дэн Баер, бывший посол США в ОБСЕ, но снялся в пользу Джона Хикенлупера, бывшего губернатора, популярного среди колорадцев.

So, I got married this morning. Thank you @BarackObama, @HillaryClinton, & @JohnKerry for your commitment to equality pic.twitter.com/CHMDaW9gqG
- Dan Baer (@danbbaer) August 2, 2014

На прошлой неделе Дэн Баер выступал на слушаниях в Конгрессе на тему "Antagonizing the Neighborhood: Putin’s Frozen Conflicts and the Conflict in Ukraine"
https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearings?ID=FF1B68BA-8458-4FC7-B574-8854223DBE69

Речь на слушаниях шла о "замороженных конфликтах" в Грузии и Молдавии, и перспективах конфликта в Украине.

Показания Олеси Вартанян об обстановке в Абхазии и Южной Осетии:

"If Moscow is looking to integrate these regions, why is it dragging its feet? For one thing, true integration of the breakaway regions would require substantial investment in and changes to their governance and administration. For another thing, even short of annexation, Moscow is likely conscious that - especially in the aftermath of the Ukraine crisis - anything resembling territorial expansion would create yet more strain on its already frayed relations with western governments, which have uniformly declined to recognize the independence of these regions from Georgia.
In the meantime, the regions struggle along - claiming their independence but clearly far from self-reliant - with evidence of sub-par governance and inadequate services everywhere you look. Sewage contamination threatens Abkhaz beaches - once a major draw for Soviet tourists and still a major driver for the local economy - because communities lack the professionals who can mend their antiquated systems. Every time there is a heavy rain in Abkhazia, its main town, Sukhumi, is flooded, and rubber boats become the only means of transport because cars can’t get down the water-logged streets. Most doctors in local hospitals haven’t received professional training for decades, and often lack the equipment necessary for even the most basic health checks. Local policemen pay out of pocket for uniforms and to fuel their cars, motivating them to seek bribes to cover these costs.
Against this backdrop, it is no wonder that locals who saw independence as a path to prosperity and a better life in 2008 express bitter disappointment more than ten years later."
https://www.crisisgroup.org/united-states/antagonizing-neighborhood-putins-frozen-conflicts-and-conflict-ukraine

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В своих показаниях Баер подчеркнул, что действия путинской России нельзя игнорировать - не только из-за конфликтов с соседями, но и из-за войны в Сирии, крупнейшей катастрофы этого века. А также, что действия несменяемого Путина продиктованы в первую очередь стремлением сохранения собственной власти. Он не может допустить успеха демократических и экономических реформ в Украине и Грузии, чтобы не давать россиянам примера альтернативы.

Вопрос Сирии в Конгрессе тоже обсуждался - в Сенате в слушаниях на тему "Nine Years of Brutality: Assad's Campaign Against the Syrian People" и в Палате представителей в слушаниях на тему "The Crisis in Idlib".
https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings/nine-years-of-brutality-assads-campaign-against-the-syrian-people-031120
https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearings?ID=AF7B92EA-A12A-40F4-BC4F-0BCB9C56522A

Из показаний в Сенате руководителя " Белых Касок" (ныне Syria Civil Defence):

Since Russia’s intervention in 2015, the number of internally displaced people has
doubled to 8 million; the relentless aerial bombardment and use of siege to retake areas
like Aleppo and Eastern Ghouta has forced millions to “evacuate” to Idlib. Now there
isn’t another Idlib, nowhere else left to flee to and so nearly four million civilians are
trapped. The area is roughly the size of Rhode Island -- its pre-war population of
300,000 has increased by more than tenfold.
Since the beginning of the Idlib offensive the Syrian regime, backed by Russian airpower
and Iranian proxy militias, has launched a systematic campaign targeting all civilian
infrastructure: water points, hospitals, White Helmets centers, food markets, schools
and bakeries. Nearly everything that can help civilians survive has been destroyed and
the vast majority of people are struggling to access basic shelter, food and medicine.
I was in Idlib three weeks ago. There are no words to describe the apocalyptic horrors I
witnessed there.
https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/031120_Raed%20Al%20Saleh_Testimony.pdf



Показания Дэны Строул, эксперта по Сирии, о текущей ситуации в Идлибе:

The Assad-Russia-Iran offensive kicked into high gear in the past three months, causing the most severe humanitarian crisis of the entire nine-year war and violating the terms of the Sochi agreement. The fighting reached its boiling point on February 27, when Turkish forces were attacked with precision munitions leading to 33 Turkish deaths and 60 injured. Though Assad’s forces were initially blamed for the attack, the precise nature of the operation, at night, indicates Russian Air Force-Assad regime forces lack the capability for such a strike, especially at night. Turkey responded decisively, destroying Assad aircraft, ground vehicles, and artillery pieces; targeting regime personnel; and attacking the Assad’s Russian-provided air defense system. There are also reports of Lebanese Hezbollah casualties in Idlib. The Turkish counter-offensive, at least temporarily, shifted the military balance on the ground against Assad and his backers Russia and Iran.
Assad regime losses and Turkish willingness to use military force prompted Putin to seek a ceasefire agreement, rather than risk additional losses on the battlefield. Putin is also motivated to keep Turkey oriented toward Moscow, and not push Turkey back toward the U.S. and NATO after years of tension. Despite Erdogan’s demonstrated willingness to use military force, the agreement negotiated with Putin favors Assad’s territorial gains. While it provides a temporary respite for terrorized Syrian civilians, it is unlikely to hold and there are already reports of Assad regime violations.
The Russia-Turkey ceasefire agreement will not prevent further violence in Idlib, fails to address the humanitarian catastrophe, and does nothing to address the underlying causes of the Syrian civil war: the Assad regime’s brutality toward its own people. It has already been rejected by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and Huras al-Din, and enables a “Gaza Strip”-like situation on Turkey’s border with Syrian civilians and Al Qaeda-linked groups pushed up against the Turkish border. Syrians cannot return to their homes under this agreement, which perpetuates the human suffering and instability.
The question is when-not if-violence will reignite in Idlib. Russia is both unwilling and incapable of compelling Assad to adhere to any ceasefire or de-escalation agreement. Although Assad should recognize the devastating losses to what remains of his military should he restart the offensive in Idlib, Putin is undeterred in ensuring the regime’s survival.
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-crisis-in-idlib



Показания Дженифер Кафарелла, другого эсперта, были еще более жесткими и частично основанными на подготовленном ею докладе "Russia's dead-end diplomacy in Syria"
http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/ISW%20Report%20-%20Russia%E2%80%99s%20Dead-End%20Diplomacy%20in%20Syria%20-%20November%202019.pdf

"The Kremlin seeks to thwart any Western effort to replace Assad and to instead reach a superficial political settlement that legitimizes his regime and neutralizes his opposition. Buying into Russian-driven efforts thus empowers Russia to undermine American interests. Russia cannot deliver Assad to the negotiating table, moreover. Assad depends on Russian (and Iranian) military help but is not controlled by them. A fragile power balance exists between them in which Assad often gains an upper hand. Russia has limited bandwidth and resources to commit to Syria, which Assad knows and exploits.
Russia has waged a sophisticated campaign of linked military and diplomatic efforts to shape the trajectory of the war in accord with its interests since 2015. Russia has strengthened Assad’s military position, shaped international negotiations, and gained recognition as a diplomatic arbiter. The U.S. still has an opportunity to displace Russia from the center of Syrian diplomacy, however. Russia’s inability to persuade or compel Assad to respect the terms it brokers is costing it influence within opposition communities."

Рекомендации о дипломатических и военных шагах, которые США необходимо предпринять в Сирии, заканчиваются признанием:

"President Trump is unlikely to take these steps given his desire to disengage from the Middle East. Yet the U.S. does indeed have vital national security interests in Syria including preventing the growth of ISIS, Al Qaeda, and other Salafi-Jihadist Groups; blocking and ultimately reversing the long-term military presence of Iran and Russia in Syria; and halting attacks that amount to ethnic cleansing against the Syrian Kurds. If the Trump Administration remains committed to its current course, it is virtually certain to fail to secure the vital interests of the U.S. in Syria, including reaching an enduring diplomatic settlement to the war."

Russian military convoy in Qamishli, NE #Syria, yesterday 🇷🇺 @AFPphoto by @Delilsouleman pic.twitter.com/W1HX8IGHO8
- AFP Beirut (@AFP_Beirut) March 10, 2020