The Making of the President 2024: The Swing States-Arizona
Immigration (and especially illegal immigration) is one of the most important issues in the upcoming election, and one of the states most affected by this issue is Arizona, a state which shares a border with Mexico. Known as the Grand Canyon State, for decades Arizona has been characterized as a red state. President Joe Biden bucked that trend and won Arizona by about 10,000 votes in 2020. Former President Donald Trump is hoping to bring the state and its 11 electoral votes back into the GOP column. Aside from Biden’s slim victory there in 2020 and former President Bill Clinton’s Arizona win on the path to reelection in 1996, the state hasn't given its electoral college votes to a Democratic Presidential candidate since Harry Truman in 1948.
Before he withdrew from the race, President Biden visited the state in March. Vice-President Kamala Harris has sought to win credibility with state voters by reminding them that she had previously prosecuted drug cartel members and smugglers. She has also attacked her opponent for killing a border bill that would have poured more resources into the problem. She says that Trump “does not want to fix” the problem of border security, he just “talks a big game about” it.
A super PAC that supports Trump has been sending out fundraising email stating that Arizona and Nevada “have suffered under Bidenomics.” In late January, Trump cancelled an important fundraiser for the Arizona Republican Party after a recording was leaked revealing the state’s Republican Party chair had apparently tried to bribe Senate candidate Kari Lake - a Trump ally - not to run for office. Trump did not visit the state until June 6, the first time since 2022, where he held a town hall-style rally. It was also his first rally since being convicted on 34 counts in his criminal hush money case. In the rally he criticizing Joe Biden’s recent executive action in which he restricted asylum seeking. Trump told the crowd that they needed to elect Lake to the Senate.
Like Nevada, Arizona has experienced a strong population growth in recent years. It is a fairly diverse state, but the majority of its population (52.9%) 5.5% of the population are Black or African American and 5.2% are Native American. The Hispanic population makes up 32.5% of the state. A plurality of the state’s registered voters as of November 2023 (34.13%) were Republicans, 30.06% are Democrats, and 29.15% are unaffiliated.
While the economy is the most important issue in most states, a survey taken this February by Emerson College Polling and The Hill showed that immigration was the top issue for almost a third (31%) of voters in the state. It was followed by the economy (20%), housing affordability (11%), education (10%), abortion access (7%), health care (6%), threats to democracy (6%) and crime (5%).
Harris supported a bipartisan immigration reform bill that lawmakers attempted to pass earlier this year, and she is quick to remind voters that Trump’s successful efforts where what killed the bill. Trump took credit for doing so in a rally in August held in Glendale, Arizona. Harris says that if she wins the election, she would sign the legislation into law. Harris also reminded voters that during her time as the attorney general of California, another border state, she prosecuted "the transnational gangs, the drug cartels and human traffickers.” She made the same arguments during her September debate with Trump.
Trump has always made immigration a major plank of his platform. He recently said that migrants are “poisoning the blood of our country.” Trump also has promised that there would be a massive deportation effort if he is reelected. In March, Trump said, “They’re pouring into California and they’re pouring into Arizona because those governors are not doing anything. They’re doing nothing. That really tells you where they’re coming from. They want open borders - and open borders are going to destroy our country.” In his recent debate with Harris, Trump constantly steered the conversation back to immigration. He called Harris the “border czar” and he attacked her and Biden for the increased border crossings during their administration. Trump also repeated a claim that Haitian migrants in the city of Springfield, Ohio, were stealing and eating people’s pets.
Harris has made the issue of reproductive rights a major theme of her speeches. She said in a speech in Arizona in August that Trump’s Supreme Court nominees helped overturn the federal right to abortion cemented in Roe v. Wade, and said that over 20 states have enacted a “Trump abortion ban.” Harris promised that if she becomes president and Congress “passes a bill to restore reproductive freedoms for every woman In America,” she would sign it. At the September debate with Trump, Harris said the former president “should not be telling a woman what to do with her body.”
Trump has been inconsistent on the issue of abortion. He has called himself “the most pro-life president” in U.S. history. In April, he said the issue should be left up to states to decide and that he would not sign a national abortion ban. He reiterated that stance during the debate, saying he had “no reason” to endorse a national ban “because we've gotten what everybody wanted” with abortion restrictions decided at the state level. He also claimed that Democrats support the killing of a child after birth, but has not been able to substantiate this claim.
On the economy, Harris has unveiled details about her economic plan , which calls for reducing costs for working people and building up the middle class. Her agenda includes a $25,000 incentive for first-time homebuyers, a $6000 tac credit for families with a newborn child, a ban on price gouging for groceries and a cap on prescription drug costs. She has also has said that she will stick with a Biden promise that those earning less than $400,000 would be spared from higher taxes, and she has called for raising the corporate tax ratefrom 21% to 28%.
Trump has said that if elected he would lower taxes and increase U.S. energy production. He also focused on inflation while laying the blame for rising prices at the feet of Biden and Harris. Trump has proposed lowering the corporate tax rate to 15% for companies who produce their goods in the U.S. and increasing tariffs to up to 20% on imported goods. Both candidates call for removing income taxes on income from tips.
A polling average by the New York Times from last week shows Harris and Trump tied at 48%, an improvement for Democrats compared with when Biden was at the top of the ticket. Fivethirtyeight.com shows Trump with an aggregate lead in polls of just a half of a percentage point.
