The Making of the President 2024: The Swing States-Nevada
According to one commonly accepted definition, a swing state is a state where candidates of both major political parties “have similar levels of support,” and one that’s “considered to play a key role in the outcome of presidential elections.” 270 to win classifies swing states as being those in which the aggregate of recent polling data shows candidates within 5% points of one another, while other websites use a lower number. Which states are swing states changes over time due to factors like changing demographics or voter turnout. For example Georgia, for the longest time had been considered a red state until 2020 when Joe Biden narrowly won the state. It was the first victory there for a Democratic presidential candidate in almost 30 years.
Nevada has six electoral votes. It has ended up in the Democratic column in the last four elections, and was won by Republican George W. Bush in the two previous elections. Joe Biden won the state in 2020 by less than 3% so it is very much up for grabs in this election.
When US News and World report put out their "2024 Best States Rankings," Nevada finished in 33rd place. It's economy is strong, ranked 5th in the nation, and it is ranked 6th in infrastructure. But it finishes near the bottom (48th place) when it comes to natural environment, and 40th when it comes to crime rate (meaning that 39 other states have a lower crime rate.)
The state is home to Las Vegas, sometimes called “Sin City.” Nevadans usually voted Republican from the late 1960s through the early 2000s, with two wins by Democrat Bill Clinton marking exceptions in the 1990s. Since 1976, Democratic and Republican candidates have won Nevada six times each, and the state also can be viewed as a bellwether state of sorts, because the winner there has gone on to win the White House in 10 of the last 12 elections. Since 1900, the candidate who has won Nevada has won the White House in nearly 90% of elections.
Kamala Harris held a rally in Las Vegas on Aug. 10 - one of several stops on a tour of swing states for Harris and her newly minted running mate, Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota. She told her audience that she would work toward eliminating taxes on tips paid to restaurant and other service industry employees, mirroring a similar promise made by Donald Trump earlier.
Even though Trump lost the state in both 2016 and 2020, he easily won the state’s Republican caucuses. Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo, a Republican, expressed support for Trump during the former president's many legal problems. Lombardo formally endorsed Trump in January. Trump held a rally in Las Vegas on June 9th, where he criticized President Joe Biden’s executive action of barring migrants who crossed the border illegally from seeking asylum. Trump called the president’s move "weak" and said it was "bullshit." He also promised to end taxes on tip income. Trump's running mate, Ohio Senator J. D. Vance, spoke at Henderson, Nevada, on July 30 and criticized Harris, calling her “dangerously liberal,” especially on the issue of immigration. Days after his debate with Kamal Harris, Trump held a rally on September 13 in Las Vegas, where he was criticized in the media for his association with the controversial right-wing conservative Laura Loomer. During the rally, Trump said he wanted to be known as “Mr. Border President.”
Nevada is a fairly diverse state. The 2020 census showed it to be among the fastest-growing states in the nation. Over two-fifths of its population (45.7%) is non-Hispanic white, and 30.3% is Hispanic. The next-largest racial or ethnic groups are the Black or African American population (10.8%) and Asian population (9.4%). Polls taken before Biden’s exit showed substantial support for Trump among Hispanic voters. Harris has improved on Biden's numbers among Hispanic voters. Democrats have tried to win support among unionized workers in Nevada. In early August, the Culinary Workers Union, which represents 60,000 workers in Las Vegas and Reno, endorsed Harris.
The independent vote also will be crucial in Nevada. About a third of its registered voters as of November 2023 (32.78%) were unaffiliated, while 31.46% were Democrats and 28.11% were Republicans, according to one survey.
Emerson College Polling, The Hill and KLAS-TV jointly conducted a survey asking Nevadans what they considered to be the top issue in this election. About 26%of voters in Nevada said it was the economy, followed by immigration (14%), education (14%), housing affordability (13%) and health care (11%).
Harris has provided details about her economic plan, which focused on reducing costs for working people. Her agenda includes a $6000 tax credit for families with a newborn child, a ban on price gouging for groceries and a cap on prescription drug costs. She also has said she will keep a Biden promise that those earning less than $400,000 would be spared from higher taxes, and she has proposed raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%.
Trump has said if elected he would lower taxes and “drill, baby, drill” to increase U.S. energy production. He blames Biden and Harris for rising prices and he has proposed lowering the corporate tax rate to 15% for companies who produce their goods in the U.S. and increasing tariffs to up to 20% on imported goods. Trump has also proposed making overtime hours tax-free.
On immigration, Harris supported a bipartisan immigration reform bill that lawmakers attempted to pass earlier this year, and she criticized Trump for his successful effort to kill the bill. She said that if she wins the election, she would sign the legislation into law. Harris noted that in her time as the attorney general of California, she “went after the transnational gangs, the drug cartels and human traffickers.” She used similar messaging on immigration during her Sept. 10 debate with Trump.
Trump has long made immigration a major plank of his platform, and he recently said that migrants are “poisoning the blood of our country.” Trump has vowed to launch a mass deportation campaign if elected. He criticized Harris, calling her the “border czar,” pointing out the increased border crossings during the Biden administration. Trump also repeated a claim that Haitian migrants in the city of Springfield, Ohio, were stealing and eating people’s pets.
The Biden-Harris administration tried to cancel student loan debt, but this has met opposition in the courts. Harris opposes banning books and calls for injecting more funding into K-12 schools and supports universal preschool.
Trump has opposed student loan debt cancellation. He favors cutting federal funding for any school or program that pushes “critical race theory or gender ideology on our children.” He has also proposed abolishing the Education Department.
Harris’ economic plan includes a $25,000 incentive for first-time homebuyers. She said, “We know that we have a shortage of homes and housing, and the cost of housing is too expensive for far too many people.”
Trump’s plan to improve housing affordability is tied to immigration, with promises to lower prices by stopping “the unsustainable invasion of illegal aliens which is driving up housing costs.” His plan also includes lower interest rates on mortgages, which are often tied to independent policy set by the Federal Reserve.
As of Sept. 16 aggregate polls have Harris leading Trump by 1 percentage point in Nevada with 48% support - a better margin for Democrats compared to when Biden was at the top of the ticket. RealClearPolling as of Sept. 13 had Harris with a lead of 1.2 percentage points. More recent polling data shows the race to be even closer, with Harris leading by less than 1%.
Nevada is still very much up for grabs in this coming Presidential election.